Player props have become one of the NBA’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value beyond the standard spread or total. Each night, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board using matchup data, recent performances, and betting trends to find edges. Keep reading for some of the top OptaAI player prop projections for Friday, October 23. Then, right below those, you’ll see the player props I’m personally taking. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts should be all over the NBA, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
Noteworthy Friday OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the OptaAI Player Props NBA pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Jrue Holiday Under 11.5 Points (-103) vs. Kings
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 7.62 points, suggesting these odds should be -1060 — a +40.6% edge to the Over.
Isaiah Jackson Over 5.5 Rebounds (-147) vs. Lakers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 8.20 rebounds, suggesting these odds should be -477 — a +23.2% edge to the Over.
Deni Avdija Under 5.5 Assists (-155) vs. Kings
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 3.56 assists, suggesting these odds should be -568 — a +24.3%% edge to the Over.
Friday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Friday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record.
Ausar Thompson Over 9.5 Points (-124) vs. Heat
Pistons at Heat – 8:00 pm ET
Thompson had 11 points against the Celtics in the season opener, and we’ll take another performance like that against the Heat. I do think we’ll see Miami play a little better defensively after getting routed by Minnesota on Wednesday, but I’m not sure that’ll matter. The Heat played at the league’s fastest pace last season, and they were up there in possessions against the Timberwolves the other night. Well, if this ends up being an up-and-down game, that plays into Thompson’s hands. He’s an elite athlete and thrives in the open floor. That means he should walk into some easy buckets in this game, and he’ll also do his usual work as a cutter — and part-time creator — in the half-court. Last season, Miami also happened to be extremely poor defending from inside 10 feet, where Thompson generally lives. That’s why he averaged 11.0 points per game against them last year — and had 10+ twice in two games.
Dejounte Murray Over 5.5 Rebounds (+110) vs. Jazz
Pelicans at Jazz – 9:30 pm ET
Last year, Murray averaged 5.9 rebounds per game in his final 11 games of the season. Murray has always been pretty good about using his size to impact the glass at the guard position, and I think there’s a good chance he pulls down six boards tonight. We just saw Cedric Coward pull down seven boards against the Jazz, and he did that in only 28 minutes of action. I believe that speaks to guards like Keyonte George and Darryn Peterson only being wired to play offense. Well, I can see Murray similarly taking advantage of the matchup, and that’s probably where I should mention that the Jazz have the potential to be near the bottom of the league in rebound rate this year. Utah is already a little weak at the center spot, and not having Jusuf Nurkic, a great individual rebounder, hurts. Also, Jaren Jackson Jr. is historically awful when it comes to rebounding at power forward.
Domantas Sabonis Over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115) vs. Trail Blazers
Blazers at Kings – 10:00 pm ET
Sabonis had 40 combined points, rebounds, and assists against the Clippers in the season opener, but his usage rate was down at 11.0% in that game. Darius Acuff Jr. and Zach LaVine both had usage rates of at least 31.8%, and Sacramento got absolutely blasted by Los Angeles. After the game, Sabonis went to the press and said that the Kings are at their best when playing through him, and he couldn’t be more right about that. With that in mind, you’d have to imagine that Doug Christie will look to get his center more involved tonight. Of course, Sacramento would be doing so in a matchup against a Portland team with a good defensive frontcourt. But if Sabonis is getting his touches, the numbers will come.
Late Additions
Nothing yet.
More NBA Content
Check out the Harwood Handicappers YouTube channel! I’ll likely be dishing out more player props every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday when I go LIVE on YouTube to run through each slate.
