Player props have become one of the NBA’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value beyond the standard spread or total. Each night, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board using matchup data, recent performances, and betting trends to find edges. Keep reading for some of the top OptaAI player prop projections for Wednesday, October 28. Then, right below those, you’ll see the player props I’m personally taking. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts should be all over the NBA, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
Noteworthy Wednesday OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the OptaAI Player Props NBA pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Jabari Smith Over 15.5 Points (+100) vs. Bucks
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 19.34 points, suggesting these odds should be -417 — a +30.7% edge to the Over.
LaMelo Ball Under 4.5 Rebounds (+114) vs. Warriors
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 3.47 rebounds, suggesting these odds should be -272 — a +26.4% edge to the Over.
Darius Garland Under 8.5 Assists (-140) vs. Lakers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 6.11 assists, suggesting these odds should be -511 — a +25.3%% edge to the Over.
Wednesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Wednesday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record.
Davion Mitchell Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115) vs. Hawks
Heat at Hawks – 7:00 pm ET
Mitchell has had at least 22 PRA in all four of his games this season. Well, I was able to get a 20.5 for tonight. That number is still available at several spots, but I’d also be fine with going Over on 21.5. As I just mentioned, Mitchell hasn’t gone below that mark yet, and I don’t think it’ll happen here. Given the makeup of this Miami roster, Mitchell knows how important it is that he takes his open shots and is aggressive about putting his head down to get two feet in the paint. Well, Atlanta has some excellent defensive players, but the team also plays at the seventh-fastest pace (103.50) pace in the league. So, even if we might see Mitchell run into some trouble here and there, he’ll also have the luxury of being on the ball in a game with a ton of possessions. That should mean he’ll get his points and assists, and I trust a competitor like him to hit the glass.
Jabari Smith Jr. Over 14.5 Points (-125 – 1.5 units) & Alt Points 19+ (+200 – 0.5 units) & Alt Points 23+ (+475 – 0.25 units) vs. Bucks
Rockets at Bucks – 8:00 pm ET
I loved seeing that OptaAI spit out a projection of 19.34 for Smith, as I was already thinking about going here. I love Smith to finish with at least 15 points, which he has now done twice in four games this season. Well, in tonight’s game, we’ll see Smith go against one of the league’s worst transition defenses in basketball, and he’s scoring 5.5 points per game in transition. I also expect Smith to get some quality looks from deep here. Alperen Sengun is dealing with lower back soreness, which means Smith will play quite a bit as a small-ball five. That should mean that he’ll have slower bigs defending him, so he’ll get to pull up against some slower contests and aggressively attack closeouts. I also just expect him to play massive minutes here. Not only is Sengun out but Steven Adams will also miss this game. Houston does have Clint Capela to eat up some innings, but does the team really want him out there that much?
Ziaire Williams Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds (-118) vs. Clippers
Lakers at Clippers – 10:30 pm ET
Williams has had at least 13 combined points and rebounds in three consecutive games. Granted, he has had only 13 in back-to-back games, so he’s barely going Over the number. But Williams should only get better as he gets more comfortable playing with Luka Doncic. The big wing is clearly becoming a favorite in Los Angeles, as he has played at least 29 minutes in three consecutive games. Williams defends, he runs the floor well, and he’s knocking down his open threes. If you do that on a Doncic-led team, you’re going to play a lot — and probably make yourself a ton of money. Well, in tonight’s game, Williams will go to work against the Clippers. He had 14 points and five boards against this team on October 23, and I can see him having another solid game here. The Clippers are the worst team in the league when it comes to defending the rim right now, so Williams will do well when he looks to finish. The Clippers also have some trouble getting out on corner shooters. That said, Williams should have opportunities to make plays. Let’s just hope Doncic or Austin Reaves will be out there to create for him.
Late Additions
Nothing yet.
More NBA Content
Check out the Harwood Handicappers YouTube channel! I’ll likely be dishing out more player props every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday when I go LIVE on YouTube to run through each slate.
