Aaron Gordon did it again.
For the second time in five playoff games the Nuggets’ forward willed Denver to victory. This time, instead of a putback dunk with no time left, it was a 3-pointer that rattled home with 2.8 seconds left on the clock. The Nuggets’ outright win as a 10.5-point underdog would be the headline on most nights, but in this wildly entertaining postseason the result was just par for the course.
The second round of the postseason is young, but the ‘dogs are barking louder than my mother’s chihuahua does every time she gets an Amazon delivery. In three games the underdogs are 3-0 SU. All three ‘dogs were at least +280 on the moneyline, and a parlay of all three at DraftKings’ closing numbers equated to +7067 odds.
Three games is a miniscule sample size. These results do not mean that Golden State is destined to upsend Minnesota on Tuesday evening. However, the results of the second round are part of a larger trend that is starting to take shape in this postseason.
Bringing Down The House
Three games into the conference semifinals homecourt advantage means absolutely nothing. Thirty-eight games into the NBA postseason as a whole homecourt’s value is beginning to dwindle.
Road teams are starting to take control of the playoffs. After Monday night’s results road teams are on a neat little 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS run over the last eight postseason contests. Home teams in the postseason are 25-21 SU but road teams are 24-21-1 ATS. It would seem that the betting market is somewhat overvaluing the numerical value of homecourt.
The median home margin of victory in 46 postseason games is +2 and the average home result is only 2.8 points. In the regular season homecourt came out to be worth no more than 2.5 points. But in this postseason we have seen some massive homecourt swings.
Take the first round series between Golden State and Houston as an example. In Game 4 of that series the Warriors closed as 3.5-point favorites at home. In Game 5 the Rockets closed as 4.5-point favorites. That is an 8-point swing because the series changed venues. Nothing else. The series between the Pistons and Knicks saw similar swings from venue to venue. New York was a 6.5-point favorite at home in Game 5, but it closed as a 1.5-point underdog in Game 6 at Detroit.
Since 2021 the average net rating in non-garbage time for home teams has increased by an average of 2.68 points from regular season to postseason. Over that span home teams have posted an average non-garbage time net rating of at least +4.3 in the playoffs. As of Monday evening the average home team net rating in non-garbage time is +3.1. That would be the lowest average net rating for home teams since the 2017 postseason if it were to hold, according to Cleaning The Glass.
Average Non-Garbage Time Net Rating, Regular Season to Postseason
2025: +1.7 -> +3.0 (+1.3)
2024: +2.3 -> +5.1 (+2.8)
2023: +2.7 -> +4.3 (+1.6)
2022: +1.9 -> +4.7 (+2.8)
2021: +1.1 -> +4.6 (+3.5)
Postseasons are inherently small sample sizes to begin with. It is certainly possible that we see this trend continue and road teams dominate until the NBA Finals concludes. Until we see some indication that the market has adjusted, those who handicap the league on a daily basis might want to make an adjustment of homecourt on their own.
Or, hold out that the home teams will figure it out and the edge of playing at home manifests to the degree it usually does. The latter strategy might come some lumps, as those who bet on the home teams in the first three games of the second round can attest to.
