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NBA Best Bets

Record: 118-115-3 | Units: -5.85

 

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New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder (-8, 213.5)

Oklahoma City was the lone home team that failed to cover over the weekend, and there were some troubling signs in the victory. Namely, the Thunder’s inability to keep the Pelicans off the glass. 

New Orleans not only won the overall rebounding battle 52-44, but it also grabbed 35.6% of its missed shot attempts. That led to a putback points rate of 42.6 for the Pelicans, according to Cleaning The Glass. In other words, they would have scored 42.6 putback points per 100 missed shot attempts. That is not good, especially for a team in the Thunder, whose main weakness is lack of size. It would track that New Orleans will likely be able to win that battle once more.

The market has been frozen at 7.5 since the game opened on Sunday night, and it won’t move much. In far away lands the hook has disappeared, but there seems to be no real hunger at this point to move heavily in one direction from the market. Those looking to get involved should be able to get the best number available for the side they are supporting.

One adjustment bettors should be on the lookout for: Josh Giddy’s minutes being cut.

Giddey is not a floor-spacer in any sense of the word. He shot 34% from beyond the arc overall and 36% on corner 3-point attempts in the postseason. The Pelicans were comfortable defending him with almost everyone on the roster, from Jose Alvarado to Jonas Valanciunas. Giddey’s presence clogs the floor for the Thunder. Head coach Mark Daigneault went away from Giddey in crunch time, and we saw him play just 20 minutes on Sunday. 

Giddey’s point prop is down from 12.5 to 9.5 today and his points, rebounds and assists number is 20.5 at DraftKings. That has clearly been adjusted, but when you account for the slower pace, physical defense and potential change in minutes, it might be worth playing under once more.

Best Bet: Josh Giddey UN 20.5 PTS+REB+AST (-115)

NBA Best Bets

Josh Giddey UN 20.5 PTS+REB+AST (-115)

Remaining Games

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (-15, 207)

Sharp bettors came in and grabbed +15 with Miami when the line for Game 2 opened on Sunday, but outside of that initial move we have not seen much for this contest. Zig-zag bettors have been rewarded with a 4-2 ATS record in the last two days, so perhaps those players will come back in on the Heat as well. But, from what we saw on the court there is not much of a case to be made for Miami.

The Celtics torched the Heat’s zone defense on Sunday afternoon. They went 22-of-46 from beyond the arc, and 18-of-37 on non-corner 3-point attempts. The rate at which those shots went down likely regresses to an extent, but Boston was the best shooting team in the league this season. It is not unreasonable to believe that the Celtics have a dominant shooting performance once again, especially when facing a defense that allows a high rate of attempts.

Beyond that, Miami still has to figure out how to score. Boston was content with allowing Bam Adebayo to be the main shot-taker on Sunday. Adebayo led the Heat in field goal attempts (18) and points (24). But, Miami averaged just 1.068 points per possession. Tyler Herro – who was hounded by Jrue Holiday and Derrick White – was held to 11 points on 4-of-13 shooting. The Heat will probably look to get Herro more involved, but that is easier said than done.

Boston has the ability to win by this margin tonight. However, the first game had only 88 possessions, and it is hard to win by such a margin in such a slow-paced game. Bettors who were on the Celtics had to sweat the result on Sunday. Those looking to get involved are better off waiting for the game to begin, and jumping on Boston at a cheaper number.

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