It’s officially time for the NBA Playoffs. We’ve been working hard to get you ready for some of these awesome opening-round matchups, so make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Sunday, April 20th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 20th
NBA Best Bets Today – April 20th
Game 1: Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets – 9:30 pm ET
If you’ve been reading our postseason preview content, it shouldn’t be a surprise that I’m backing Houston in Game 1. I like the Rockets to win this series, and I think there’s a decent shot they do it in six or fewer games. And it’s going to be hard to do that without Houston earning a tone-setting win in the series opener.
I’m fully aware that Golden State has been the best team in the NBA in points allowed per 100 possessions (111.4) in the 31 games the team has played since acquiring Jimmy Butler. But you know what? Houston is fourth in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions (110.8) over the course of the entire season. The Rockets are also fourth in Dunks & Threes’ adjusted defensive rating (110.1). So, this is a strength vs. strength matchup, but I happen to think Houston will be the team that can bother Golden State more.
Outside of Stephen Curry, the Warriors really don’t have a lot of shot creators, and the Rockets have some bodies to throw at Curry — and that includes second-year phenom Amen Thompson. Obviously, Jimmy Butler is another player that can find ways to score, but most of his damage is done in the mid-range area. The Warriors are going to need consistent 3-point shooting, not just tough playoff-buckets. And Houston happens to have plenty of lengthy wings, with legitimate athleticism, to throw on Butler. So, it’s going to take a big series from somebody else in order for the Warriors to win this. And when talking specifically about Game 1, it’s going to take a big road game from a role player. In the postseason, those are harder to come by.
Role players play better at home, which also works in Houston’s favor when talking about the offense. There are some legitimate question marks with this Rockets team offensively, and those could catch up to Houston eventually. But the Rockets should knock down shots at a higher clip at the Toyota Center. And I also happen to think Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green will play well for Houston throughout this series. Sengun has a big size advantage over all of Golden State’s defensive options for him, and Green has an edge in speed and athleticism over most of the Warriors guards.
I also just love Sengun and Steven Adams, along with some of the tough wings on the Rockets roster, to dominate the glass in this series. And that should start with Game 1, as Houston will be amped up and filled with energy. Golden State is just 2-3 straight-up this season when facing teams that outrebound opponents by 3.0 or more rebounds per game.
The Rockets are also 23-9 SU as home favorites this season. They’re also 6-0 SU when playing four or fewer games in 10 days this year. They should be able to come correct after a full week off. I also love that they’re 8-4 SU when taking on teams that outscore opponents by 3.0 or more points per game this year. This Houston team might lack experience, but the group has played good competition well all season long.
Bet: Rockets ML (-114 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – April 20th
Game 1: Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder – 1:00 pm ET
In the nine games that Ja Morant has played with Tuomas Iisalo on the sidelines, the electric guard has had at least six assists in six of them. Morant has been attacking nonstop, getting a higher usage rate and more pick-and-roll opportunities since the coaching switch. And Morant has taken advantage with some massive offensive performances. Well, I don’t see that changing in the postseason. I know Morant is playing against an elite Thunder defense, and people might not believe in his ability to continue lighting it up. But Morant is fearless. He’s going to try and get downhill against whoever ends up guarding him. He’s also likely going to need to do more with the ball in his hands against this defense, as his teammates might not be able to. Morant also happened to face this Oklahoma City team twice during the regular season, and he had at least six assists in both of those games.
I also don’t hate that the Grizzlies only had one day of rest to get ready for this series. Obviously, that’s not ideal when thinking about Morant’s sprained ankle. But it likely means that Memphis had very little time to put a real game plan in place. So, the Grizzlies are likely going to roll the ball out to Morant and hope he can keep them in the game. That should mean big numbers in Game 1.
Bet: Morant Over 5.5 Assists (-114)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
________________________________________________
2024-25 NBA Record: 373-375-2 (+2.06 units)
