It’s officially time for the NBA Playoffs. We’ve been working hard to get you ready for some of these awesome opening-round matchups, so make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Friday, April 25th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 25th
NBA Best Bets Today – April 25th
Game 3: Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves – 9:30 pm ET
I don’t love playing the Timberwolves at a juiced moneyline price, but I like Minnesota to win and don’t trust the team to cover. The Timberwolves can occasionally blow up offensively, so I can see them playing with their food and allowing a backdoor cover. However, I do feel good about Minnesota finding a way to win this game.
Under JJ Redick, the Lakers are just 8-15 straight-up as road underdogs. Well, they’re now playing a Timberwolves team that is 89-50 SU as a home favorite under Chris Finch.
It’s also hard not to view Minnesota as the better team in this series. Through two games, the Timberwolves have an offensive rating of 114.8 and a defensive rating of 107.4, and those were games played in Los Angeles. That’s supposed to be where the Lakers have an edge. But the reality is that Minnesota’s talent from 1-8 in the rotation is standing out quite a bit against a Los Angeles team that lacks depth. Also, when talking about X’s and O’s, the constant effort from the Lakers to get Rudy Gobert defending on an island might not be worth it. He is holding his own when asked to guard away from the basket. So, Los Angeles might need to find something else that works, and it’s hard to pinpoint what that is.
Of course, there’s a chance Luka Doncic goes out and puts up 40 tonight. He has been good in this series and can always steal a road win. But it feels more likely that Anthony Edwards and Co. bounce back from a Game 2 loss, imposing their will on both ends of the floor. Honestly, Game 2 didn’t even look all that great for Los Angeles. The team was just playing with a desperation that Minnesota couldn’t match. Taking that away, the Timberwolves should get back to doing what they did in Game 1: good defense, sharp decisions and high-level shotmaking.
Bet: Timberwolves ML (-148)
NBA Player Props Today – April 25th
Game 3: Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 pm ET
Andrew Nembhard had 17 points in Games 1 and 2. The interesting thing about Game 2 is that he got off to a slow start and was in some early foul trouble, but that didn’t stop him from scoring. This is just a tremendous matchup for the 25-year-old. The Bucks are incredibly weak when it comes to defending the perimeter, and Nembhard is already a bit of an afterthought with Milwaukee having to worry about Tyrese Haliburton. Perhaps that will change in Game 3, as the Bucks might be tired of getting torched by Nembhard. But I’m just not sure there’s anything they can do about it. He’s too good at getting himself to the basket, and he’s a better spot-up shooter than his regular season numbers suggest. Also, if you’re thinking the move to Milwaukee is going to hurt him, I’m not sure it will. Nembhard averaged more points per game on the road than he did at home, and his percentages were better in road games. So, I’m firing up Nembhard to have at least 11 again, but I’m also taking a shot on 15+. He has proven to be a playoff riser after having averaged at least 12.3 points per game in all three of Indiana’s series last year.
Bet: Nembhard Over 10.5 Points (-114) & Nembhard Alt Points 15+ (+285 – 0.5 units)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Magic Alt +10.5 vs. Celtics & Pacers Alt +12.5 vs. Bucks (-111 – 1.5 units)
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2024-25 NBA Record: 383-380-2 (+9.18 units)
