It’s officially time for the NBA Playoffs. We’ve been working hard to get you ready for some of these awesome opening-round matchups, so make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Monday, April 28th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 28th
NBA Best Bets Today – April 28th
Game 4: Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat – 7:30 pm ET
Game 4: Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors – 10:00 pm ET
I try to make sure I give out at least one side and one player prop every day. Unfortunately, I don’t see anything I love when looking at Monday’s sides/totals. However, I have relatively strong leans on the Heat and the Rockets, and I don’t mind getting creative. That said, I’m parlaying both and grabbing as many points as I can without getting too far away from a typical -110 play. With Miami, that gets me to 15.5. For Houston, I’m looking at 10.5.
As far as the Heat game goes, I recognize going against the Cavaliers can be scary. Miami was in a must-win situation in Game 3, but Cleveland went to South Beach and beat Erik Spoelstra’s team down. But the Heat aren’t ready to give up. Tyler Herro stressed after the game that he isn’t interested in being swept. This Miami team wants to continue fighting. Well, as long as that doesn’t change, I feel good about the Heat avoiding a 16-point loss. This Miami team is still a top-10 team in the league defensively, so the group should make Cleveland work for everything on offense. And there’s definitely a lot the Heat can do better offensively. That’s going to need to start with Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins, who haven’t played well all series. But there’s no reason that can’t happen. That’s especially true when looking at Wiggins, as Cleveland isn’t all that strong when it comes to defending the perimeter. Herro is also going to need to just fire away from 3-point range in this one. He took only three 3s in Game 3, but he’s likely going to be a lot more aggressive with Miami’s season on the line. If he is, and he’s hitting at a normal clip, that will open up a lot for the Heat.
In the Rockets case, I just can’t imagine Houston getting blown out by Golden State. Even if Jimmy Butler is out there in Game 4, the Warriors don’t have enough firepower to put a beating on a Rockets team that is elite defensively. Also, while a lot of people are ready to overreact to what we saw in Game 3, that was a game Houston should have won. There was a personal 9-0 run from Gary Payton II in that game, and that’s something that probably won’t happen in the next 500 games he plays. Also, while Draymond Green’s defense has been a factor, Alperen Sengun missed a ton of clean looks around the basket. Those should go down the rest of the series. I also think better days are ahead for both Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green. VanVleet has been a disaster thus far, but he’s a big-time shotmaker.
PARLAY: Heat Alt +15.5 & Rockets Alt +10.5 (-116)
NBA Player Props Today – April 28th
Game 4: Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors – 10:00 pm ET
As I mentioned earlier, Sengun left a lot on the table in Game 3. The 22-year-old shot 7 for 18 from the floor, which is why he finished with only 15 points. He was also just 1 for 6 from the line, which is lousy even for a 69.2% free throw shooter. Well, as we turn the page to Game 4, I’m expecting Sengun to flirt with 20 points. He had 26 points in Game 1 of this series, and he’s just too good of a player to shoot below 50.0% from the floor another couple of games. Look for Sengun to make a few more push-shots than he did in the previous two games in this series, and don’t be surprised if he’s a little better when it comes to getting himself good shots at the basket. Great post players tend to figure things out after a few cracks at it, and I think Sengun can do exactly that — even with Green on him.
Bet: Sengun Over 18.5 Points (-114)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
Rockets +5.5 (-130 – 1.5 units) vs. Warriors – Game 4
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2024-25 NBA Record: 387-387-2 (+5.44 units)
