It’s officially time for the NBA Playoffs. We’ve been working hard to get you ready for some of these awesome opening-round matchups, so make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Wednesday, April 30th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 30th
NBA Best Bets Today – April 30th
Game 5: Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:00 pm ET
In Game 2, the Lakers were seemingly bigger favorites than they should have been because they were in desperation mode. And while Los Angeles did win and cover in that game, it doesn’t mean there was a lot of logic in the team being such a big favorite. When looking at power ratings, advanced stats and even some traditional stats, there’s nothing out there that suggests the Lakers should be expected to beat the Timberwolves by six or more points. And there’s been nothing in the first four games in this series that suggests that either. With all of that in mind, it’s hard not to play Minnesota to cover a 5.5-point spread. After all, this is a game I expect the Timberwolves to win.
While a better defensive effort can probably be expected from Luka Doncic in Game 5, it’s hard to imagine him being anything but a huge target in this game. Minnesota has been attacking him all series, and having a liability like that is also brutal for a team that is already playing small, with no trustworthy rim protector in sight. The Timberwolves have been getting a lot of quality looks at the basket, with Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle terrorizing the Lakers when putting their heads down and attacking. Those two should show up again here, along with Jaden McDaniels. And the Timberwolves’ key bench pieces, like Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo, should also play well.
All in all, it’s just hard to imagine Los Angeles having an answer defensively in this game, which is scary considering people had questions about this Minnesota offense. And we know the Timberwolves are going to defend. The Lakers will likely come correct when it comes to the offensive game plan, but it might not matter against an opponent that is this long, athletic and competitive.
Minnesota is also 2-0 both straight-up and against the spread in close-out games under Chris Finch. On top of that, Los Angeles is just 4-9 ATS when playing with two days of rest under JJ Redick. And it’ll be interesting to see if Redick playing the same lineup the entire second half in Game 4 has a negative impact on Game 5.
Pick: Timberwolves +5.5 (-104)
NBA Player Props Today – April 30th
Game 5: Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets – 7:30 pm ET
Jalen Green was a nightmare in the two games the Rockets played in Golden State. He scored nine points on 4 for 11 shooting in Game 3, and he followed that up with eight points on 3 for 8 shooting in Game 4. Green was so bad that Ime Udoka wasn’t closing games with him. However, getting back to Houston should do him some good. Green is more comfortable playing at the Toyota Center, where he had 38 points on 13 for 25 shooting from the floor and 8 for 18 shooting from 3 in Game 2. And while I’m not quite expecting another performance like that, I do think he’ll hit some more shots in a more positive environment. And if he sees a few go down early, he could end up having a big game.
The reality is that Green has his flaws, but he can help this team when he’s playing with confidence. And being back home should give him that confidence. So, I’m playing Green to have at least 17 points in Game 5. That feels like a pretty reasonable ask for a player that averaged 21.0 points per game during the regular season.
Bet: Green Over 16.5 Points (-115)
Game 5: Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:00 pm ET
I had Randle to score at least 20 points in Game 4 and just can’t go away from it in Game 5. Randle is averaging 22.5 points per game in this series, and he has scored at least 22 points in three consecutive games. The Lakers just aren’t going to play Jaxson Hayes in this series. He has topped out at nine minutes through four games. And as long as Los Angeles isn’t playing a legitimate rim protector, Randle is going to have opportunities to attack the rim. And when he does that, his brute force has been hard for the Lakers to deal with. Randle has also had his jumper working this series, as he’s shooting 45.5% from 3. If he knocks down a couple of outside shots, he should fly over this number. And it doesn’t hurt that he has been getting himself to the free throw line.
Bet: Randle Over 19.5 Points (-124)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
________________________________________________
2024-25 NBA Record: 390-390-2 (+5.40 units)
