The NBA Playoffs have been absolutely incredible thus far, and we’re working hard to make them as profitable as possible for all of our VSiN subscribers. So, make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Friday, May 16th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 16th
NBA Best Bets Today – May 16
Game 6: Boston Celtics at New York Knicks – 8:00 pm ET
Before Game 5, I felt there was no way the Celtics would come back and win this series. However, I did play Boston to win that game, and we’re now staring at a fascinating Game 6. Conventional wisdom suggests that New York should be able to close this out at Madison Square Garden. With Jayson Tatum out with a torn Achilles, the Knicks are now the more talented team. They also have the best player on the floor in Jalen Brunson. However, Boston did come to Game 5 with a bit of a tweaked approach. Sure, the Celtics shot 22 for 49 from 3 in that game, and that type of shooting makes you hard to beat every night. But I also thought Boston did a better job of making Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns defend in space. Now, New York might have home-court advantage tonight, but the team also has the added pressure of needing to close this out and avoid a road Game 7.
This is also the type of game in which it’s hard not to note the betting splits. The Knicks opened as 3.5-point favorites in this game, and our DraftKings and Circa betting splits pages show that an insane amount of bettors are on New York. But this spread has dropped from 3.5 to 2.5 in some spots, and that type of reverse line movement suggests significant sharp money on Boston. And when you pair that with how good the Celtics looked last game, it’s probably worth grabbing some points and hoping for the best.
There’s also a really interesting betting system that applies to this game. Since 2021, good road teams (defined as teams with winning percentages of 60-75%) with lines of +3 to -3 that are coming off home wins by 20 or more are 25-5 against the spread in games with lines of +3 to -3. The road team has also won those games by an average of 8.9 points per game.
Pick: Celtics +3 (-110)
NBA Player Props Today – May 16
Game 6: Boston Celtics at New York Knicks – 8:00 pm ET
It’s pretty clear that Joe Mazzulla believed in Derrick White in Tatum’s absence. White has a usage rate of 19.3 over the course of the entire playoffs, but he had a usage rate of 27.1 in Game 5. That was right on par with Jaylen Brown’s 27.7. Well, Boston’s game plan isn’t going to deviate much from what we saw last game. That doesn’t mean the Celtics are going to have the same exact success they had offensively, but the approach should look the same. And that makes it hard not to like White to go Over 25.5 combined points and assists here. White had 34 points and two assists last game. This time around, I’d expect a little less scoring and a little more dishing. But Boston is going to relentlessly attack Brunson again, and White’s going to get his chances to create with the New York star guarding him on an island. Those possessions should go well for him. White will also continue to be aggressive when getting to work against the Knicks big men.
Pick: White Over 25.5 Points + Assists (-115)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 416-423-2 (+10.66 units)
