The NBA Playoffs have been absolutely incredible thus far, and we’re working hard to make them as profitable as possible for all of our VSiN subscribers. So, make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Sunday, May 18th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 18th
NBA Best Bets Today – May 18
Game 7: Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder – 3:30 pm ET
This has been the most interesting series of the playoffs, so it’s fitting that we’re getting a Game 7. Watching Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the two MVP frontrunners, play 48 minutes for a spot in the Western Conference Finals will be a treat for basketball fans and bettors. Unfortunately, the Aaron Gordon injury puts a bit of a damper on everything. Gordon is a game-time decision with a hamstring injury, and it seems like there’s a decent chance he won’t play. Considering he’s averaging 14.5 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game, while also shooting 45.2% from 3 and playing stellar defense this series, it would be a massive loss for Denver. But with or without Gordon, I’m taking the Nuggets.
I originally liked the Thunder to win this series in five or fewer games, as I partly trusted what we saw in the regular season. During the year, Oklahoma City was first in Dunks & Threes’ adjusted defensive rating (106.7) and fourth in adjusted offensive rating (118.5). For the most part, the Thunder defense has shown up in the postseason. According to the NBA’s official stats, after having a defensive rating of 106.6 during the regular season, Oklahoma City has a defensive rating of 102.5 in the playoffs. The Thunder were historically good defensively in the regular season, and they have also been the best defensive team in the playoffs. But the offense has been nightmarish.
After shooting 37.4% from 3 in the regular season, the Thunder are shooting just 32.1% from 3 in the playoffs. I was always a tad skeptical of Oklahoma City’s role players knocking down their 3s, and none of them have been trustworthy over the last 10 games. Jalen Williams has also been miserable as the Thunder’s No. 2 option, providing very little help for Gilgeous-Alexander offensively. And those two things are enough for me to back the Nuggets in a do-or-die Game 7.
Denver has had an up-and-down season, but this is back to looking like ferocious basketball team. Jokic is the best player in the world, and he is going to show up in a big way in Game 7. But I also just feel better about his supporting cast helping him than I do with Oklahoma City. Jamal Murray has been much better than Williams throughout this series, and that includes a Game 6 in which Murray was ill going into the game. He knows what his team needs from him in this game, and he should deliver. He has throughout his entire career.
Realistically, Denver just knows that it has to muck up this game by playing slow and physical, and the team will then hope that its experienced players do a better job of hitting big shots than an inexperienced Oklahoma City team that is under a world of pressure. I trust that the Nuggets will do that.
Perhaps I’m overreacting to a 10-game sample size, but I’ve seen enough with the Thunder. They might win this game and go on to make the NBA Finals, but they’re not the juggernaut we saw during the year. There was a peak Warriors-level inevitability with Oklahoma City in the regular season. It never felt like the Thunder were out of a game, even if they were down 15. And they always felt like they were a two-minute spurt away from busting close games open. That was how dangerous they were on both ends of the floor. Well, that inevitability is nowhere to be found now.
Pick: Nuggets +8.5 (-110 – 1.5 units) & Nuggets ML (+270 – 0.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 18
Game 7: Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder – 3:30 pm ET
Michael Porter Jr. has only had one game with more than 10 points in this series, and that was a 21-point performance in Game 3. However, the 26-year-old did attempt nine shots in Game 6, and that was more than he had attempted in Games 4 or 5. With that in mind, I’m thinking his shoulder must be feeling a little better. But even if it isn’t, it’s hard not to like that he was a little more willing to fire. Porter also shot 2 for 5 from 3 in that game, and that was also a huge step in the right direction after he went 0 for 10 from deep in the two previous games.
On top of all of that, the status of Gordon does impact Porter quite a bit. David Adelman has been trying to keep Porter’s minutes down, as the big wing has played 29 in back-to-back games. But if Gordon can’t play his usual 37 or 38 minutes, Adelman will have no choice but to play Porter closer to 35. The Nuggets really don’t have many options at the four, and I don’t see them dusting off Zeke Nnaji now.
Considering all of that, I’m playing Porter Jr. to have at least 11 here. And given his ability to knock down shots, plus his experience in big games, I can see him hitting this rather quickly. He had 15 points in 30 minutes in a Game 7 win over the Clippers last round, and he had already scored 11 by the end of the third quarter.
Pick: Porter Jr. Over 10.5 Points (-105)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 418-428-2 (+4.66 units)
