The NBA Playoffs have been absolutely incredible thus far, and we’re working hard to make them as profitable as possible for all of our VSiN subscribers. So, make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Sunday, May 4th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 4th
NBA Best Bets Today – May 4
Game 1: Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers – 6:00 pm ET
The Cavaliers went 64-18 and looked like one of the best teams in basketball during the regular season. Then, Cleveland absolutely demolished Miami in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs. So, people are naturally viewing this as a series Indiana can’t win. However, I have been high on the Pacers for quite some time now. People really wrote Indiana off after a 9-14 start to the season. However, from December 5th to the end of the regular season, Indiana went 41-18 with an Efficiency Differential of +5.3. That’s not much worse than Cleveland, which was 45-15 with an Efficiency Differential of +9.5 in that same span.
This is definitely a series that the Cavaliers should be favored to win, but I tend to think it’s going to be very close. And I feel the same way about most of the games. That said, 8.5 seems like a lot for Cleveland to be laying in Game 1.
Under Rick Carlisle, the Pacers are 24-19 against the spread as road underdogs of 6.5 to 12 points. They’re also 13-5 ATS when playing with three or more days of rest, and they’re 3-1 ATS in Game 1s. Carlisle is just a dangerous coach when given time to prepare, as he’s very good at putting together plans to attack weaknesses. And while Cleveland is a very good basketball team, the group does have some weaknesses.
The Cavaliers have some guards that can really struggle to keep players in front of them, which is going to be trouble against a Pacers team that has some guards that can be very difficult to defend. Also, with Myles Turner being a floor-spacing center, one of the two Cleveland bigs is going to need to go out and guard him. So, if Pascal Siakam is also knocking down outside shots consistently, the paint is going to be wide open for some of the Pacers perimeter players to attack.
I’m also interested in seeing what Darius Garland looks like in this series. He has a toe injury that he apparently would have played through if the Heat series was closer. But the guard is still listed as questionable for this game, and he hasn’t played in a while. Well, as far as Game 1 is concerned, he could hurt the team. If he’s not himself offensively, Indiana’s defense will be in a much better spot. And Garland is already attackable defensively, so what will he look like if his movement is compromised?
Pick: Pacers +8.5 (-110)
NBA Player Props Today – May 4
Game 7: Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets – 8:30 pm ET
Ime Udoka isn’t going to turn his back on Steven Adams now. With Adams and Alperen Sengun on the floor together, Houston has an offensive rating of 117.2 and a defensive rating of 85.0. Golden State has had no answer for the double-big lineup, and that makes Adams an interesting player to back on the player props market in Game 7. And while Adams really isn’t much of an offensive presence, I like the idea of going Over on his 7.5-point total.
Adams was 4 for 4 from the field in 31 minutes in a big road win in Game 6, and four field goals is all we’d need for him to go Over his total. But Adams is also going to have a ton of chances to go to the free throw line. Steve Kerr knows that hacking Adams and hoping Udoka pulls him is really the only way that the Warriors can keep him from dominating the paint — on both ends of the floor. So, if Adams doesn’t implode at the free throw line, he should put a nice dent in this number at the charity stripe. After all, Adams went Over this total on free throws alone in Game 6, going 9 for 16 at the line.
Bet: Adams Over 7.5 Points (-115)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 396-394-2 (+6.93 units)
