The NBA Playoffs have been absolutely incredible thus far, and we’re working hard to make them as profitable as possible for all of our VSiN subscribers. So, make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Monday, May 5th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 5th
NBA Best Bets Today – May 5
Game 1: New York Knicks at Boston Celtics – 7:00 pm ET
There appears to be some sharp money on the Under in this game, as our VSiN NBA betting splits page shows a majority of bets on the Over and the number keeps coming down. DraftKings Sportsbook opened this at 217.5 and it was 213 there at the time of publish. And while I understand possessions have been down all throughout the playoffs, I think this has moved a little too much. So, I’m ignoring the sharp side and going Over.
In four meetings between these teams in the regular season, the Over hit three times. And those were games with totals of at least 221.5. Also, the one Under had a total of 232 and the teams combined to score 223.
I also just haven’t seen much of anything that suggests the Knicks are going to start playing low-scoring games against elite offensive teams. This New York team was just 15th in the league in adjusted defensive rating (113.7) during the regular season, and the group is very exploitable on that end of the floor. So, a Boston team that was second in the league in adjusted offensive rating (119.4) should be able to find ways to score in this one. And there are a lot of people that expect the Knicks to keep this series competitive. Well, how is that going to happen without New York coming out blazing hot and catching Boston by surprise with some shotmaking?
I’d just be surprised if we don’t see the Celtics coming out launching away from 3. They just got bogged down a bit by the Magic, so Joe Mazzulla probably spent most of the week trying to figure out how to get his offense back on track. And if Boston is jacking away from 3, New York will have no choice but to try and keep up.
The Over is also 4-2 in the Game 1s the Knicks have played with Tom Thibodeau on the sidelines, and it’s also 11-7 when the Celtics are playing with three or more days of rest under Mazzulla.
Pick: Over 212.5 (-109 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 5
Game 1: Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder – 9:30 pm ET
Russell Westbrook was one of the big winners of Game 7, as his 16 points, five rebounds, five assists and five steals played a big role in Denver knocking out his former team. After the game, Westbrook was talking some smack in the locker room, which wasn’t surprising after his big celebration after a late-game dunk that felt like it kicked every single Clippers player while they were down. All in all, it was quite the series for Westbrook, and he definitely got some nice revenge on a Los Angeles team that gave up on him.
Well, I’m not sure Westbrook will have the same impact on winning in this series, as Oklahoma City is just insanely smart defensively. In fact, if you read my Nuggets vs. Thunder series preview, you’ll see that I think this is going to be a straightforward series. But I do think there’s a chance we get a big Westbrook game in the box score in Game 1.
With Denver coming off a grueling seven-game set and having very little time to prepare for this one, this just feels like a game in which the team will look to play a little through the guard’s energy and ability to create chaos. And for what it’s worth, Westbrook did average 13.8 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game in four meetings with the Thunder this year, which is good for 26.4 combined points, rebounds and assists per game. Well, I just need him to have 21 combined points, rebounds and assists tonight, which is something he has had in three straight contests.
Bet: Westbrook Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 397-395-2 (+6.78 units)
