The NBA Playoffs have been absolutely incredible thus far, and we’re working hard to make them as profitable as possible for all of our VSiN subscribers. So, make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Tuesday, May 6th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 6th
NBA Best Bets Today – May 6
Game 2: Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 pm ET
I gave out the Pacers to cover a 10.5-point spread on my appearance on Money Moves on Monday, and I would have been willing to play this down to 8.5. In Game 1, Indiana was an 8.5-point underdog and ended up winning outright in what was a masterful offensive performance. The Pacers shot 53.0% from the floor and 52.8% from 3, and all five starters scored in double figures. Bennedict Mathurin also gave Indiana some juice off the bench, scoring 11 points in 23 minutes. The reality is that Indiana looked like the better offensive team than Cleveland, and the Cavaliers can’t have that the rest of the series. They were an elite team all year long because they were the best offensive team in basketball, scoring 122.5 points per 100 possessions. But if they’re not humming in a very similar way, they’re going to be vulnerable the rest of the playoffs.
It doesn’t help that Darius Garland is dealing with a toe injury. The star guard missed Game 1 after missing the final two games in the Miami series, and the Cavaliers aren’t the Cavaliers without his ability to create off the bounce and shoot the basketball. Now, Garland is listed as questionable for Game 2, and perhaps he’ll be back in the mix. But it is worth noting that Kenny Atkinson said that he doesn’t see a big difference between “questionable” and “doubtful.” That’s an absurd comment to make considering it’s pretty clear cut to everybody else, but it’s also something to consider with Evan Mobley and De’Andre Hunter also listed as questionable on the injury report. Is there really a chance the Cavaliers will be without two All-Stars, plus a key rotation piece, in a pivotal Game 2? If two of those three end up sitting in this game, this spread could drop to 6.5 or 7. That alone makes it worth grabbing as many points as you can early on. But even if all three are out there, I’d rather have the points in this game.
Tyrese Haliburton should be able to continue lighting up this mediocre Cleveland defensive backcourt. So, while Donovan Mitchell — and eventually Garland — will have plenty of moments, Indiana could very well come close to matching the firepower the Cavaliers will have on the perimeter. I have also had some reservations all year long about the double-big lineup of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Atkinson did a great job of maximizing those two during the regular season, but this is the exact type of matchup that those two can struggle with. Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner are going to stretch them out, opening up driving lanes for the rest of the Pacers. And Siakam is going to have success attacking off the bounce himself.
Defensively, Indiana is also a much better team than people think. There’s no such thing as shutting down Cleveland, but Rick Carlisle’s team has performed like a top-10 defensive team for the last six months. And when going by points allowed per 100 possessions, the Pacers have been a better defensive team than the Cavaliers for a while now. That’s why it’s so important that Cleveland gets back to looking like an offensive juggernaut.
Indiana is also 30-14 against the spread when playing teams with winning percentages of 70.0% or higher under Carlisle. This Pacers team consistently gets up for big games, as this is a fiery group that feels it belongs in the conversation with the league’s best.
Considering all of that, maybe the “Zig-Zag Theory” suggests the Cavaliers will even up the series on Tuesday. But Cleveland doesn’t have to win by 10 or 11 points to do so.
Pick: Pacers +10.5 (-115)
NBA Player Props Today – May 6
Game 1: Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves – 9:30 pm ET
The last time we saw Rudy Gobert, he had 24 rebounds in a dominant Game 5 performance and ended Los Angeles’ season. And while I can’t say I’m expecting that type of performance from the big man in Game 1 of this series against Golden State, I do feel this is going to be a big series on the glass for the Frenchman. In four meetings with the Warriors during the regular season, Gobert averaged 10.5 rebounds per game and 18.3 rebound chances per game. Also, all of those games were played before Golden State acquired Jimmy Butler. That’s interesting because the Warriors were third in the NBA in rebounds per game (46.0) before the All-Star break, but they slid to 14th after (44.1). Golden State also consistently struggled to keep opposing centers off the glass towards the end of the regular season, as the team leaned more and more into small-ball lineups with Draymond Green at the five.
Gobert, coming off a series in which he averaged 20.6 rebound chances per game, will now be going to work against a Warriors team that allowed 31.8 rebound chances per game to the duo of Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun last round. That said, it’d be surprising if Gobert doesn’t have some big games on the glass. I feel similarly about Julius Randle. However, something is fishy about the Over on his total of 6.5 being heavily juiced.
Bet: Gobert Over 10.5 Rebounds (-112)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 399-395-2 (+9.28 units)
