The NBA Playoffs have been absolutely incredible thus far, and we’re working hard to make them as profitable as possible for all of our VSiN subscribers. So, make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Wednesday, May 7th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 7th
NBA Best Bets Today – May 7
Game 2: New York Knicks at Boston Celtics – 7:00 pm ET
I was very fortunate to hit the Over in Game 1. I played it at 212.5 and the two only combined for 213 despite the game going to overtime. The pace in the game was just absurdly slow, with both teams landing on 91.92. For reference, the Orlando Magic were the slowest team in the NBA during the regular season with a pace of 96.51. With that in mind, I understand why the Game 2 total is lower than the Game 1 total, and I also see why sharp bettors are flocking to the Under. But I can’t help myself here. These teams are now 4-1 to the Over in five meetings this season, and the one game that went Under featured the two teams combining to score 223. Of course, playoff basketball is different. We saw that in Game 1. But I also saw Boston launch 60 shots from behind the 3-point line in that game. If it were up to them, this would be a high-scoring game. And I don’t see the Celtics shooting that poorly again.
Boston is going to come with a better offensive approach in Game 2, so I’m not expecting to see 60 shots from behind the arc again. But the Celtics were first in the league in 3-point attempts during the regular season. They attempted 48.2 per game and they’re not going to be too far below that here. The reality is that Boston might have gotten a little too trigger-happy in the first game in this series, but the team also took — and missed — some good shots too. Well, I’m expecting the Celtics to bury more 3s against a mediocre Knicks defense in a big Game 2. Also, if Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are a little more aggressive in attacking the basket, that will only open up better shots for their teammates.
Of course, the Knicks will likely need to pitch in a little for an Over to hit too. But I think it’s reasonable to expect New York to do that. If the Celtics find a way to suck the Knicks into a quicker game, New York has enough shot-making throughout the rotation to help this Over cash.
This total is just too low and tempting. This season, Boston is 10-7 to the Over in games with totals of 210 to 219.5. With a team this explosive, it’s hard not to just play this and hope for the best.
Pick: Over 210.5 (-110)
NBA Player Props Today – May 7
Game 2: Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder – 9:30 pm ET
Isaiah Hartenstein only had one assist in a Game 1 loss to the Nuggets, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The Oklahoma City big man, who averaged 3.8 assists per game during the regular season, had five potential assists and four adjusted assists in that game. So, with some better luck in Game 2, he should flirt with better numbers as a playmaker. Hartenstein also had at least four assists in two of the four games that the Thunder played against the Grizzlies last round, and he also had at least four assists in seven of the final 12 games of the regular season. Hartenstein is just very good at making quick decisions, and that should serve him well in this series. Only five teams in the NBA gave up more assists per game than the 28.4 that Denver allowed after the All-Star break. And while the Nuggets have been a little better defensively in the postseason, their 115.5 playoff defensive rating is the worst mark of any of the remaining teams. So, this is a defense that can’t be trusted to defend — especially off the ball. So, with the Over on Hartenstein’s 3.5-assist total being out there at +140 odds, I’m willing to take a chance on him finding cutters and open shooters.
Bet: Hartenstein Over 3.5 Assists (+140)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 407-411-2 (+13.44 units)
