It’s time for the 2024-25 NBA Playoffs. We’ve been slowly breaking down each series over the last couple of days, so make sure you check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub. That’s also where you’ll find our daily betting content throughout the postseason, like Zachary Cohen’s best bets and Steve Makinen’s analytics reports. You can also catch us talking about the NBA regularly on our live VSiN programming. But we also had our talented hosts and analysts put together some of their favorite picks for some of the opening-round series, as well as some of their futures for the entirety of the playoffs. You can find all of those below!
Matt Youmans
Rockets to win series vs. Warriors (+170)
Golden State seems to be getting more respect than it deserves against the West’s No. 2 seed. Admittedly, the Warriors have been my favorite team to watch for a long time, mostly due to Stephen Curry, and they have been especially good since acquiring Jimmy Butler in early February. However, Curry is playing with a banged-up right thumb, and the Warriors will need to get significant scoring from sources other than Curry and Butler in a long series against a tough defensive team like Houston. In the teams’ most recent meeting on April 6 in San Francisco, the Rockets beat up the small-ball Warriors 106-96 as Amen Thompson helped hold Curry to three points on 1-for-10 shooting. Houston did not win 52 games with smoke and mirrors. It is concerning that only two of the Rockets’ starters (Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet) have playoff experience. This series price is high — much higher than I expected — because Curry, Butler and Draymond Green are veterans who have been here and won big this time of year.
Nuggets to beat Clippers in 7 (+390)
The strong betting support for the Clippers, who are 17-3 in their past 20 games, is understandable. LA has a lot more than Kawhi Leonard and James Harden — it also has Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac and a shrewd assistant coach in Jeff Van Gundy, who should get credit for the major improvement in the Clippers’ defense. Denver’s defensive weaknesses and lack of depth will get exposed in this matchup. But will Harden, who’s had more than his share of postseason shooting slumps, also get exposed? For the Nuggets to succeed, Jamal Murray must outplay Harden. I’m betting on Nikola Jokic, the best player on the planet, as an underdog. If this series goes the distance, I’ll have Denver at a big plus-price at home in Game 7.
Thunder to win the West (-150)
In the NBA, young teams need to pay their dues before getting over the hump in the playoffs, and the Thunder paid their dues last year in a six-game loss to Dallas. Oklahoma City has the fearless go-to scorer (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) and physical big men (Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein) to match up with any team and win with any style. The defense is definitely good enough to get the job done. It’s a little late to jump on the Thunder train, but the more I have watched the other teams in the West, the more I like OKC’s chances.
Kelley Bydlon
Pacers -5 in Game 1 (-110) & Pacers to win series vs. Bucks (-190)
Since March 1, the Pacers are 17-7 with the eighth-best net rating in the NBA outside of garbage time minutes. They have a top-15 offense, as we’d all expect, but it’s the defense that has really come on strong lately. Over the last 14 games of the regular season, they put up the 6th best dRTG and were top five in the league in rim defense, free throw rate, and offensive rebounds allowed. That eventually pushed me over the edge with the Pacers. The Bucks have been very effective offensively recently even without Damian Lillard in the lineup, but everything will funnel through Giannis Antetokounmpo and his desire to attack the rim. If the Pacers can slow down what he’s done recently just a tad, I think the overall quality of their roster, depth, and home-court advantage will be too much for the Bucks.Â
Having said that, I do think we are in store for a monster Giannis series. I will likely be looking at some alt Overs on some of his player props early in the series.Â
Clippers to win series 4-2 vs. Nuggets (+400)
Part of me is honestly glad to see at least one person I know — the great Matt Youmans — is backing the Nuggets. It has felt like the entire betting community has talked about liking the Clippers this week.
However, I don’t like the Cilps. I love the Clips. Surely that will end up going well against the best player on the planet, who also happens to have home-court advantage.
This is the LA team I’ve been high on for a while now. You could see this building, and a month ago I bet Celtics over Clippers in the NBA Finals at 100-1 as a partial zag on my several Thunder-to-win-the-West tickets. The recent numbers are ridiculous. Since March 1, the Clippers are 18-5 with a +11.7 net rating (2nd) and have played as a top five offense and defense. In that same time period, the Nuggets have been a pedestrian 11-11 with the 19th-best net rating in the NBA. And they made a head coaching change. Yes, they have the best player in the NBA on their side, but Ivica Zubac won’t be a complete pushover on the defensive end and will challenge Jokic for every rebound. Every other matchup I give an advantage to the Clippers. Their perimeter defenders should be able to cause havoc for Jamal Murray and their other offensive weapons, which there aren’t a ton of. On the other end of the floor, Aaron Gordon might be able to slow down Kawhi Leonard a bit, but I think the rest of the defense will get picked apart by James Harden, Norman Powell, and Co.Â
I loaded up on Clippers series price on the open. If LA drops Game 1, I’ll be right back in for more. At the current price, that’s probably how I’d recommend betting it, but I do like the odds of the Clippers finishing this off in 6, so I’ll take +400 on that as well.
Anthony Edwards to lead MIN-LAL series in scoring (+185)Â & 3PM (+105)
I’m really looking forward to this series. At the current price, I do think there is a little value on the MIN side, but I’m going to stay away. I also lean Over on the total games as I expect this to be a long series.Â
From a player prop perspective, I think we see the stars show out. I do think Luka Doncic and LeBron James will put up big numbers, but if MIN is going to find any success, I think we see a huge series from Anthony Edwards. Luka has averaged more PPG on the season, but at +185 I think Edwards to lead the series in scoring is worth a play, and I love the +105 for him to lead the series in 3s made. Ant is both attempting and making more than Luka this season.Â
Mitch Moss
Giannis Antetokounmpo to record 10+ rebounds in each game of MIL-IND series (+325 MGM)
The Freak has averaged 10+ rebounds per game for eight straight seasons. He posted totals of 10, 10, 12, and 17 rebounds in four games against the Pacers this year. Antetokounmpo accomplished this while playing a maximum of 35 minutes in those contests. He also secured double-digit boards in 55 out of 67 games played in the regular season. He has been as close to domination as one player can get against this opening-round opponent. The Pacers really don’t have an answer for him. Factor in Damian Lillard’s unknown availability early on, and it’s easy to envision Giannis playing closer to 40 minutes per game to give the Bucks the best chance at moving on to round 2 of the playoffs. That means +325 is worth a bet.Â
Luke Doncic to lead MIN-LAL series in rebounds (+650 Caesars)
Rudy Gobert is the rightful favorite in this market and is priced at -420 at the time of this post. Flashback to the Western Conference Finals from last year when Gobert averaged 7.6 rebounds per game when the Wolves lost in five games to Luka Doncic and the Mavericks. That 7.6 average was down from his regular season average of 10.9. Gobert was pretty bad overall in that series. There is a nonzero chance that Rudy is rendered ineffective in this series with the Lakers being a heavy perimeter team. Under this scenario I would expect Doncic to fill the stat sheet, much like he did versus the Wolves a season ago when he averaged 9.6 rebounds per game and gobbled up the most overall boards in the series.Â
Sean Green
DET-NYK series Over 5.5 games (-125)
This Pistons team has been a fun story all season long and I expect some big performances from Cade Cunningham in this series. Cade averaged 30.8 points, 8.3 assists and 5.0 rebounds per game in his four performances against the Knicks this seasons and will be hungry in this early playoff action. Do I think the Pistons can steal one in MSG? Absolutely! Toss in the fact that the Pistons haven’t been in the playoffs since 2019 and you know the fans will be able to help carry them to at least one win. I think they’re capable of winning the series outright, but certainly the Pistons — who beat the Knicks in the regular season 3-1 — can get at least two games. The Little Caesars Arena will host a Pistons team that is both hot and ready.
Lakers -1.5 games in series vs. Timberwolves (+115)
The Mavericks destroyed the Timberwolves in last season’s Western Conference Finals, winning 4-1 with the T-Wolves having no answer for Luka. I don’t think much has changed in Minnesota and don’t expect they’ll have many answers for Luka, who averaged 32.4 points, 9.6 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game in that series. Sure, you’ll have to worry about Ant Edwards going off from behind the arc but outside of that I struggle to see how they’ll win three games against this Lakers team. Let’s be real: Is the NBA really going to let Luka and LeBron get knocked out of the playoffs in round one?
Dave Tuley
Nuggets to win series vs. Clippers (+100 Circa)
This is the most intriguing first-round matchup and as a No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup is understandably priced right around pick-’em, but I have to go with the even-money underdog Nuggets, the 2023 champs with home-court advantage. Denver also has the best player in all-world Nikola Jokic and we’re counting on Jamal Murray being back to 100% coming off his six-game absence with a hamstring injury. I’m encouraged by his 15 points last Friday. He should be good to go after having ample time to rest since. Obviously, the Clippers are more dangerous than your regular No. 5 seed and we could be in trouble if they get a split in the first two games in Denver, but we’re also counting on the Nuggets’ home-court advantage (which usually only really matters if a series goes the full seven games) to come into play and help them control the series throughout. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the home teams win all seven games, though the Nuggets (24-17 on the road) are also capable of stealing one in L.A.
Bucks to win series vs. Pacers in first round (+135)
The Pacers are the better team at this point, especially with Milwaukee’s Damian Lillard ruled out for Game 1 as he’s still recovering from deep vein thrombosis in his right calf. However, NBA playoff basketball usually comes down to the superstars with playoff experience and the Bucks still have Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has carried this team for a long time. The Greek Freak averaged 30.0 points and 12.3 rebounds per game in the four games against the Pacers this season and the cupboard isn’t totally bare. The Bucks can still get a split in Indy and be poised to close out the series early before having to deal with a Game 7 on the road, so I’m still shopping around for odds on the Bucks in six.
Zachary Cohen
Pacers to win series vs. Bucks (-160 – 1.5 units)
This has moved a ton since it first became available, so you might have trouble finding a good number. But I’d play this up to -225. I have all the respect in the world for Giannis Antetokounmpo, but the Pacers are eighth in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions (113.0) since December 15th. This Indiana team got off to a slow start, but it really picked things up on both ends of the floor. Rick Carlisle completely stabilized the Pacers defense, and he did it while not sacrificing the team’s top-10 offense (118.1). Now, when looking at Indiana and Milwaukee, it’s pretty hard not to think that the Pacers are the better team on both ends of the floor — and that might be by a pretty wide margin. Obviously, Antetokounmpo will be the best player on the floor here, but Tyrese Haliburton is second and a good case can be made that Pascal Siakam is third. Then, you’re talking about Damian Lillard, who is out at least the first game, being fourth, followed by a bunch of Indiana players. The difference in supporting casts and depth is outrageous here, and Indiana also happens to have the better X’s-and-O’s coach. On top of that, the Pacers have home-court advantage. So, I’m not going to get cute with this one. I’m taking the better team, with the better coach, that also happens to have four games at home and a healthier roster. And I can’t wait to watch Indiana target some of Milwaukee’s weaker defenders.
Clippers to win series vs. Nuggets (+120 – 1.5 units)
Check out my Nuggets-Clippers series preview for my thoughts!
Rockets to win series vs. Warriors (+165 – 1.5 units) & Rockets -1.5 Games vs. Warriors (+340 – 0.5 units)
Check out my Rockets-Warriors series preview for my thoughts!
