The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing. I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Tuesday, December 31st. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on December 31st

 

NBA Best Bets Today – December 31st

Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 pm ET

This total has gone up from 215.5 to 217, but I like the Under. This season, Oklahoma City is first in the league in adjusted defensive rating (105.0) and Minnesota is fourth (108.7). Also, while the Thunder might want to play at a faster pace, the Timberwolves absolutely don’t. So, even though Oklahoma is ninth in the league in possessions per 48 minutes (100.5), Minnesota is down at 24th in the league (98.1). That said, if the Timberwolves win out when it comes to play style, this will be a half-court game in which both teams are digging in defensively. And for what it’s worth, Minnesota has been winning the stylistic battle a lot lately. The Under is 10-4 in the last 14 games the Timberwolves have played. It’s also 7-4 in the last 11 games the Thunder have played, so it’s not like they are regularly getting involved in high-scoring affairs.

It’s also worth noting that the Under is 4-3 in the seven games the Timberwolves have played against opponents with winning percentages of 70.0% or higher over the last two seasons. It’s also 3-1 in the four games they have played against teams that allow a shooting percentage of 43.0% or lower in that span. Meanwhile, the Under is 11-6 in the games the Thunder have played with totals between 210 and 219.5 since the start of last year. So, when Oklahoma City games are expected to be low in scoring, they tend to play out that way.

However, I should note that this is a smaller play for me, and I don’t love much when it comes to sides or totals tonight. But if you scroll down a bit, I did put in a pretty big parlay that I like with the two late games.

Bet: Under 217 (-110)

NBA Player Props Today – December 31st

Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers – 3:00 pm ET

Damian Lillard has six games with at least 27 points in his last 11 games played. The 34-year-old is now facing a Pacers team that is just 24th in the league in adjusted defensive rating (115.0). Indiana also happens to play at the league’s eighth-fastest pace (100.9). That said, this is going to be an up-and-down game, and it’s one in which Lillard should be able to consistently attack good matchups. Without Aaron Nesmith healthy, I’m not sure there’s a single guard defender in the Pacers rotation that opponents are afraid of going against. Andrew Nembhard would be the closest.

It’s also hard to ignore that Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton are questionable for this game. If either of them sit out, the Bucks will be expecting more out of Lillard offensively. That would make this a very good play. But I do like his chances of going Over with both in the lineup. If that wasn’t the case, I wouldn’t take it.

Bet: Lillard Over 25.5 Points (-105)

Parlays/Teasers/Late Added Plays/In-Season Futures

PARLAY: Suns ML vs. Grizzlies & Lakers Alt Spread +7.5 vs. Cavaliers (+144 – 1.5 units) – It looks like the Suns will be getting Devin Booker and Grayson Allen back tonight. That’s some much-needed offensive firepower for a Phoenix team that has been defending a little better lately. And Memphis will be without Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, Jake LaRavia, Vince Williams Jr., Zach Edey, Santi Aldama, Brandon Clarke and GG Jackson tonight. That’s a lot of players that this Grizzlies team can usually count on for rotation minutes. That said, the Suns really should win tonight. It probably won’t be easy. It never is with Phoenix. The team is lacking an identity right now, and that’s not something Memphis deals with — even with so many players out. But if the Suns can’t win this one, you can probably expect to hear some big trade rumors soon.

In the second game, I’m taking an alternate spread to get me through two key numbers in a game I think the Lakers can win outright. This Los Angeles team is starting to play much better defensively, and Cleveland is on the second night of a back-to-back. The Lakers should also have a little extra energy with Dorian Finney-Smith making his debut this evening. I’m very high on what this Los Angeles team will look like moving forward, and I think the team will make a nice little statement tonight. The reason I’m going with the alternate number is that I do have a healthy amount of respect for Cleveland. If the Lakers are a little off with their defensive rotations, the Cavaliers will make them pay.

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2024-25 NBA Record: 141-136-1 (+6.52 units)