The 2024-25 NBA season is underway. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who will be writing NBA deep-dive features for us twice per week this year. And try to listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Tuesday, December 3rd. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on December 3rd
NBA Best Bets Today – December 3rd
Orlando Magic at New York Knicks – 7:30 pm ET
The Magic have won and covered in 12 of their last 13 games. In that 13-game span, Orlando is first in the league in net rating (+13.2). The Magic have simply been awesome defensively since Paolo Banchero went down, and that’s why this is a tough matchup for the Knicks. New York is incredible offensively, but teams with big wings that put consistent pressure on the ball can give the team trouble. That said, I’m not sure we’ll see an outrageous shooting performance out of the Knicks tonight. Meanwhile, New York’s defense can be a disaster. Over the last 10 games, the Knicks are 21st in the league in defensive rating. And despite having Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby, New York has oddly had trouble containing opposing wings. That said, Franz Wagner should look good as the engine of the Orlando offense again. Also, this should be a game in which Jalen Suggs shows up in a big way. There will be good looks to go around against an unorganized Knicks defense, so he should knock down some triples. He’ll also be the primary Jalen Brunson defender, and he’ll look forward to that challenge.
The Magic are also 63-47-3 against the spread as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Jamahl Mosley. They’re also facing a Knicks team that is 29-32-1 ATS when facing teams that allow 108.0 or fewer points per game under Tom Thibodeau. On top of that, New York is 11-15 both straight-up and ATS versus teams that average 9.0 or more steals per game under Thibodeau. When teams can match the Knicks defensive intensity, New York struggles to win comfortably. And it’s not difficult to match this year’s group on the defensive end.
Perhaps the Knicks will find a way to win this one outright, but it should go down to the wire. Give me the points.
Bet: Magic +5 (-124)
Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 pm ET
I’m a little surprised that the Rockets are available at plus-money odds tonight. I mentioned this to JVT and Kelley Bydlon the other day, but this Kings team is terrible. It’s hard to blame Sacramento for grabbing DeMar DeRozan, as the team didn’t have to give up much of anything to bring him in. But DeRozan has bogged down the Kings offense. This team is at its best playing with pace and utilizing the world-class speed of De’Aaron Fox. Now, Sacramento lacks an offensive identity. And the team isn’t good enough defensively to overcome that. All of that is problematic against any team, but it’s especially troublesome against Houston.
This Rockets team is third in the league in adjusted defensive rating (107.4), and it’s hard to imagine the Kings snapping out of their recent funk in this matchup. And that’s especially true with Houston being one of the few teams in the league that has answers for a player like Fox. And offensively, this feels like a game in which Alperen Sengun will punish Domantas Sabonis around the basket. Also, I’m not sure who Sacramento will throw on Jalen Green, but the options aren’t great.
I know the Kings are trying to do some different things, and one of them is putting Malik Monk in the starting unit. However, I don’t think that’ll be enough for Sacramento to beat one of the Western Conference’s best teams. Houston is more talented, better coached and just generally in a nice rhythm right now. Also, under Ime Udoka, the Rockets are 17-5 SU when playing only their second game in five days. They take advantage of their rest days. They’re also 29-16 SU against teams with losing records.
Bet: Rockets ML (+105 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – December 3rd
Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 pm ET
Damian Lillard has been racking up assists since returning from injury. He has had at least 10 assists in five of his last six games. However, Lillard’s only averaging 13.5 potential assists per game in that span. That’s actually down from the 13.6 potential assists per game he is averaging on the season. That’s a 16-game sample versus a six-game sample, making it clear that he’s not going out of his way to find teammates. With that in mind, I’m not looking to jump on the Over on his assists against the Pistons tonight. Detroit is 12th in the league in defensive rating, and only five teams in the NBA are allowing fewer assists per game than the 24.6 that the Pistons are giving up. Instead, I’m looking to Lillard to score at least 25 here. Detroit plays very good defense off the ball, so Lillard should find that he’ll need to be aggressive in hunting his own shot. And that would be good news for anybody that tails this play, as Lillard is on a bit of a heater lately. He has scored at least 25 points in three consecutive games, and he’s 13 for 22 from 3 over the last two games. If we see an aggressive Lillard tonight, he should easily hit 25 points. And I’d be surprised if he’s not aggressive, as this game determines the winner of East: Group B.
Bet: Lillard Over 24.5 Points (+100)
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets – 10:00 pm ET
Steph Curry is averaging 34.3 combined points, rebounds and assists per game this season, and he’s doing so in 29.9 minutes per game. Steve Kerr hasn’t had to put a lot on Curry this season, as the Warriors have a very deep guard rotation. However, when Golden State plays good teams, Curry tends to flirt with 33 to 35 minutes. And with this being a primetime game against Denver, I’d be surprised if Curry doesn’t play significant minutes. That said, I think the total for the superstar is low, and that’s especially true against a Nuggets team that is weak at the point of attack. Curry should be able to light up the Denver backcourt as a scorer, and then I expect him to get this home with whatever else he adds on the stat sheet. It’d just be surprising if this isn’t a vintage Curry game. Curry had 27 points, nine assists and seven rebounds against the Celtics earlier in the year, and he also had 37 points, nine dimes and six boards in a meeting with the Mavericks. He gets up for the big ones.
Bet: Curry Over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110)
Parlays/Teasers/Late Added Plays/In-Season Futures
PARLAY: Sixers ML vs. Hornets & Clippers ML vs. Blazers (-102 – 1.5 units) – The Sixers are still without Joel Embiid, but they dominated a good Pistons team last game with Paul George back in the mix. That said, I’m not too worried about them earning a win over a LaMelo-less Hornets squad. The good thing about Philadelphia starting the season as poorly as it did is that the team will have a sense of urgency every night. So, I’m not worried about a disappointing performance here. Then, the Clippers should handle their business against the Blazers. Portland isn’t good enough offensively to consistently generate offense against an elite Los Angeles defense. And James Harden should go insane against the Blazers defensive backcourt.
Pacers ML (-137 – 1.5 units) vs. Raptors – The Pacers are coming off a rough loss to the Grizzlies, but this team is about to flip the switch. Indiana’s defense has been a big problem this season, and the offense has also lacked a little juice. Good thing Andrew Nembhard is back. He’s an excellent point-of-attack defender, and he gives the team another playmaker alongside Tyrese Haliburton. Make sure you monitor the injury report, as Nembhard is questionable. But if he plays tonight, Indiana should roll against a Toronto. I’m risking it and assuming he’ll play. He looked good against Memphis last game, and the team had a day off yesterday.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 90-81 (+6.63 units)
