We’re more than halfway into the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Friday, February 21st. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on February 21st
NBA Best Bets Today – February 21st
Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards – 7:00 pm ET
This a pretty brutal spot for the Bucks. Milwaukee just played a very tight game against the Los Angeles Clippers, so the team will likely be fatigued heading into this meeting with Washington. I know the All-Star break just happened, so these players should all be rested. But a back-to-back is a back-to-back. And not only are the Bucks 6-11 against the spread on the second night of back-to-backs under Doc Rivers, but the Wizards are 3-2 ATS when playing with three or more days of rest under Brian Keefe. This is Washington’s first game since the break.
This should also be a spot in which the Wizards will get up, as this will be Khris Middleton’s first game in Washington. It’s also being played against the team that gave up on him. So, as one of the more well-respected players in the league, I’m expecting a very strong effort from Middleton’s teammates.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if this is a game in which Milwaukee looks to get rest for some of its key players. Again, the All-Star break should make that less likely, but you never know in this league. The Bucks are still hoping to make a lengthy postseason run, so they might want to play it safe with Giannis Antetokounmpo or Damian Lillard. And even if they don’t, I already question their rotation. That Bobby Portis news was a big blow for a team that is lacking playable options in the second unit.
Bet: Wizards +7.5 (-118 – 2 units) & Wizards ML (+200 – 0.5 units)
NOTE: I got this a little earlier at BetRivers. It’s moving fast now. I would still look to play it at +7.5, even with more juice. However, +6.5 really should be fine. It’s just a point off the traditional key number, so I’m always a little paranoid about that. But I think this is a game Washington can win.
NBA Player Props Today – February 21st
Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic – 7:00 pm ET
Believing in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has burned me a few times this year, but I genuinely think it’s outrageous to rule out the possibility of him knocking down at least two 3s in the right matchups. Caldwell-Pope has been extremely disappointing all season long — and has gone five games without knocking down multiple 3s — but this is a career 36.5% 3-point shooter. Caldwell-Pope also shot at least 40% from 3 in back-to-back years heading into the 2024-25 season, and he’s still playing 30.2 minutes per game this year. That said, while Caldwell-Pope hasn’t found his stroke all year, this is still a player that is being relied on to cash in on catch-and-shoot opportunities. And he should get some in this game.
This meeting with Memphis has a total of 225.5, which is actually pretty high for an Orlando game. And for as good as the Grizzlies are defensively, they are allowing 13.9 made 3s per game this season. Only five teams in the NBA are giving up more.
The Grizzlies will likely feel like they can get away with sending all kinds of extra attention at Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero here, so Caldwell-Pope can do some damage if he’s ready to shoot.
Bet: Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 Made 3s (+155)
Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 pm ET
The Spurs have a ton of on-ball playmaking options, so Devin Vassell’s passing is a bit of an afterthought right now. But the San Antonio wing is averaging 2.9 assists per game this year. And even in the six games De’Aaron Fox has played with the Spurs, Vassell has had at least three assists three times. So, it’s a little wild to see him at +180 to reach that mark again. Of course, Vassell is coming off a game in which he had zero assists against the Suns, and not having Victor Wembanyama as a play finisher will hurt all of San Antonio’s players when it comes to dishing. But I just can’t help but think this total is an overreaction to last night’s game. The real number is 1.5 and heavily juiced to the Over. But even his alternates should be set at 3.5 instead of 2.5. Over the last six games, Vassell is averaging 2.7 adjusted assists per game.
Bet: Vassell Over 2.5 Assists (+180 – 0.5 units)
Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 pm ET
In the six games the Kings have played since trading De’Aaron Fox, Keon Ellis is averaging 12.3 points, 4.0 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. In that six-game sample, Ellis has gone Over 11.5 combined points, rebounds and assists four times. Ellis is just a highly productive player, as he’s an awesome perimeter defender and rock-solid floor spacer on the other end of the floor. The only issue is that Sacramento is absolutely loaded in the backcourt. That said, it’s hard for Doug Christie to consistently find Ellis 30 minutes. However, in a meeting with Steph Curry and the Warriors, I’d be surprised if Ellis doesn’t play good minutes. The Kings will need him to handle that assignment. And if he does ultimately get a nice chunk of playing time, he should do a good job of putting a dent in the stat sheet. It’s also hard to ignore the fact that this is a home game. Ellis is shooting 52.5% from the floor and 50.0% from 3 at the Golden 1 Center. He loves this building.
Bet: Ellis Over 11.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Heat Alt +7.5 vs. Raptors & Kings Alt +7.5 vs. Warriors (-117 – 1.5 units) – I have strong leans on the Heat and Kings to win outright tonight, but I’m avoiding them as sides. Instead, I’m going to play them together as a parlay with alternate spreads.
For Miami, I ultimately laid off because of how tough Toronto has been at home this season. It just wouldn’t stun me if this is a game the Raptors steal late, but getting 7.5 is a whole different story. It’s just hard to ignore the fact that Toronto is playing without Jakob Poeltl right now, opening up the possibility of Bam Adebayo really imposing his will on this game. Also, Tyler Herro will be the best perimeter scorer on the floor in this one, so the Heat are in a pretty good position to win. On top of all of that, the team’s new pieces have had some time to settle in. Erik Spoelstra has also had more time to get prepared for this game, and that’s always a scary thing for the opposing team. Speaking of scary, I wouldn’t want to be defended by Davion Mitchell if I was a Raptors guard tonight. He’s intense on a good day, but this is the team that traded him.
With the other game, I’m just not understanding how Sacramento is an underdog. I ended up passing on the Kings at plus-money odds, as I’m nervous I’m undervaluing the Warriors after the Jimmy Butler acquisition. But I actually have Sacramento rated higher than Golden State, and this game will be played on the Kings’ home floor. So, I wanted to play this in some way, shape or form. This is how I’m getting a little something down on it.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 248-248-2 (-3.53 units)
