We’re more than halfway into the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Tuesday, February 25th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on February 25th
NBA Best Bets Today – February 25th
Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors – 7:00 pm ET
This season, the Raptors are 18-12-1 against the spread when playing in Toronto. This is a very difficult place to play. The Raptors also happen to be 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games, and they’re coming off an exhilarating 127-109 win over the Suns on Sunday. This group is quietly gaining confidence, and it’s also in a decent spot in the health department. Immanuel Quickley is playing big minutes again and looking good doing so. The team is only missing Jakob Poeltl and Brandon Ingram, but the team is getting some good play from its other big men. And it’s not like we know what this team looks like with Ingram. But overall, since January 8th, the Raptors are 10-11 and have the league’s 12th-best defense when it comes to points allowed per 100 possessions (114.3). This team simply isn’t as bad as its record suggests, and Boston could be in for a fight tonight.
The Celtics are going to be without Jrue Holiday this evening, so that’s a good perimeter defender and offensive piece gone. Also, Al Horford is listed as questionable for Boston, and that’s always alarming with a player his age.
It’s just hard not to like the size the Raptors have on the wing, as that should disrupt Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown a little bit. And Toronto’s players are very comfortable offensively in this building, so the team will be in attack mode all night long. We just need to see some of the shots go down.
The Celtics have also just been miserable as favorites of 10 or more points this year, as they’re 12-19 ATS when favored by double digits. That said, I’m going in on the Raptors to cover 11.5, and I’m also putting a little something on the Raptors to cover an alternate spread of +7.5.
Bet: Raptors +11.5 (-115 – 1.5 units) & Raptors Alt Spread +7.5 (+155 – 0.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – February 25th
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic – 7:30 pm ET
Franz Wagner has recorded at least five assists in two of his last three games, and he also had another five-assist game on February 8th. So, that marks three games with at least five dimes in his last six. Also, over the last six games, Wagner is averaging 7.3 potential assists per game and NBA’s Second Spectrum tracking numbers give him 4.5 adjusted assists per game in that span. So, with a little more luck when it comes to the shot-making of his teammates, Wagner would be doing a little better as a passer. Well, I’m willing to bank on those adjusted numbers here. This Cleveland defense isn’t all that good, so Orlando should be able to create some good looks. And with this game being played at home, the Magic role players should knock down shots at a better clip. Also, Wagner had six assists in his only other meeting with the Cavaliers this year. Sure, Paolo Banchero might have been out in that one, so Wagner’s usage rate will be down this time around. But it also helps having Banchero out there to finish plays.
Bet: Wagner Over 3.5 Assists (-132)
Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 pm ET
Bradley Beal has been scorching hot for Phoenix lately. The 31-year-old just had 30 points in a loss to the Raptors, and he has now scored at least 25 points in four of his last five games. Beal also happened to score 19 in that fifth game, so he has gone Over tonight’s number in five straight. Beal is just looking a lot more confident now that he’s back to playing big minutes, and he should really be able to take advantage of a meeting with the Grizzlies. This Memphis team is slipping a bit defensively, as the group is just 16th in the NBA in defensive rating over the last 10 games. The Grizzlies also play at the league’s fastest pace (104.5). So, this really should be a very high-scoring game, which is why the total is all the way up at 245.5. Well, if Beal flirts with 15 or more shot attempts, he should have 19 or more tonight. And he has shot at least 15 times in three of his last five games. I also think Beal will get things going from 3 here, even though he isn’t very quick to launch triples. The Grizzlies have just been disastrous when it comes to guarding the 3-point line over the last few weeks.
Bet: Beal Over 18.5 Points (-114 – 1.5 units)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Rockets ML vs. Bucks & Lakers ML vs. Mavericks (+102 – 1.5 units) – I’m not willing to lay 3.5 with Houston tonight, and I also don’t love the moneyline price of -159 for the team to win outright. However, parlaying the Rockets with the Lakers gets us plus-money odds for both teams to win outright. And considering I had a lean on Los Angeles -9, I view that second game as a relatively safe way to get better odds on the first one.
With the Rockets, I just think their defense is going to give the Bucks a lot of problems. I know Milwaukee is playing some decent basketball right now, but Houston has the type of athletes that can really make Giannis Antetokounmpo work for everything. And the Rockets also have point-of-attack defenders that will hound Damian Lillard all night. Well, outside of those two, where is the consistent shot creation coming from? Meanwhile, it seems like there’s a good chance Fred VanVleet will return for Houston tonight. If he does, I’ll like this play even more, as the Rockets can use him as a late-game organizer and big-shot maker.
It’s also hard to ignore that the Bucks are 3-9 SU as road underdogs of 6 or less under Doc Rivers. Meanwhile, the Rockets are 15-5 SU as home favorites of 6 or less under Ime Udoka.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 261-264-2 (-2.99 units)
