We’re more than halfway into the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Wednesday, February 26th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on February 26th
NBA Best Bets Today – February 26th
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat – 7:30 pm ET
This feels like a strong revenge spot for the Heat. Miami just lost to this Atlanta team at State Farm Arena on Monday, and the Heat will now be looking to return the favor. These two-game series generally don’t go the way of one team, and it’d be especially odd if it happened here. Dunks & Threes has Miami with a higher adjusted offensive rating (111.3 vs. 111.2) and adjusted defensive rating (112.3 vs. 113.3). The Heat are also playing as home favorites for the first time since acquiring Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell, so the crowd should be fired up and expecting a win. This won’t be like when Miami hosted Boston directly after the trade.
The Hawks are also just 2-14 against the spread when coming off a game in which they scored 105 or fewer under Quin Snyder. And they have lost those games by an average of 10.6 points per game. On top of that, Atlanta is 10-17 straight-up and 11-16 ATS in road games with lines of +3 to -3 under Snyder. Meanwhile, since 2023, the Heat are 13-3 SU and 9-7 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages between 40% and 49% at home. These just aren’t the types of games Miami loses.
I also just find it highly unlikely that the Heat are going to go 7 for 40 from 3 again, which is exactly what they did on Monday. Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson combined to go 1 for 14 from deep themselves, and they’re two of the better shooters in the league.
If all of that isn’t enough, Erik Spoelsra is one of the best coaches in basketball and just got a look at the post-deadline Hawks. He’ll be more prepared this time around.
Bet: Heat -2.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – February 26th
Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks – 7:00 pm ET
Quentin Grimes is averaging 14.4 points per game since the start of February. The 24-year-old has also scored at least 13 points in four of the seven games he has played since being traded to the 76ers. Philadelphia has thrown the talented guard into the fire, playing him at least 31 minutes in five of his seven contests. And the only reason he didn’t play more against the Bulls on Monday is that the 76ers lost by a billion. Well, I have a hard time imagining Grimes won’t play 30 or more minutes tonight, and he should be somewhat fired up playing against the team that drafted him and ultimately moved on from him. Grimes actually had 21 points against New York when he was playing for Dallas on November 27th, shooting 7 for 13 from the floor and 4 for 8 from 3. Well, Grimes’ role with the Sixers isn’t any smaller than it was with the Mavs. And with Philadelphia banged up and leaning towards tanking, his role will only grow.
Bet: Grimes Over 12.5 Points (-110)
Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 pm ET
I have mentioned Immanuel Quickley a few times in the last couple of days, noting that he’s a player to back on the NBA player props market moving forward. Now that he’s back and playing at least 30 minutes every night, he should be able to put up some decent numbers. Well, I’m going to Quickley to dish out at least six assists tonight. Quickley has had 15 assists over the last two games, as he recorded eight against the Suns on Sunday and seven against the Celtics last night. Quickley is also averaging 10.8 potential assists per game for 6.0 adjusted assists per game over the last six games, which is a significant time span because it coincides with a six-game streak of playing at least 30 minutes. Quickley now heads into a matchup with the Pacers, who are fifth in the league in pace of play (100.9) and 19th in adjusted defensive rating (114.4). This is a matchup in which both teams will be flying up and down the floor, and neither group will be all that locked in defensively. So, there should be opportunities for Quickley to find some open shots for his teammates.
Bet: Quickley Over 5.5 Assists (+116)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Blazers ML vs. Wizards & Kings ML vs. Jazz (-137) – I’m throwing in a two-leg parlay tonight in which I’m fading two tanking teams and backing two Western Conference squads that are still very interested in winning. The Blazers, winners of two straight and currently 4.5 games back of the 10th seed, are taking on a Wizards team that is just 10-47 on the season. Portland is a much stronger team on both ends of the floor, has some momentum and also happens to have a ton of motivation. That’s enough for me to back them in some way, shape or form. Meanwhile, the Kings are in the 10th spot and are trying to move up a little. Well, they’re not going to be able to do that without winning games like this one. The Jazz are usually one of my favorite ATS plays when playing in Utah, but we’re starting to see more and more funny business on their injury report. So, I’m rocking with Sacramento to win this one outright. I have a hard time believing in a shaky Jazz defense defending a Kings team with so much perimeter firepower. Also, if Walker Kessler (questionable) misses this game, Domantas Sabonis is going to absolutely dominate around the basket.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 265-266-2 (+2.04 units)
