We’re more than halfway into the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Thursday, February 27th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on February 27th
NBA Best Bets Today – February 27th
Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic – 7:00 pm ET
It’s going to be somewhat difficult rooting for this Magic team against the Warriors, who suddenly look fun and motivated. However, while things have gotten ugly in Orlando lately, the big picture still suggests this is a good home team. On the season, the Magic are 18-12 both straight-up and against the spread when playing at the Kia Center. Orlando also has a net rating of +2.0 at home this season. Also, while a 40-point home loss to the Cavaliers on Tuesday wasn’t ideal, the team had won three of its previous four — and covered in four straight — before that one miserable performance. So, while Paolo Banchero went to the post-game press conference and sounded incredibly dejected, it’s probably best not to overreact to that one game.
It’s also just hard not to like getting 5.5 points in a game that should be very low in scoring. Orlando is currently second in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (108.8) this season, and Golden State has been tremendous defensively since acquiring Jimmy Butler. In the seven games Butler has played with the Warriors, the team has a defensive rating of 104.4. That’s better than the Thunder’s season-long defensive rating of 105.3, and we’ve all been talking about how this Oklahoma City team is historically good on the defensive end. So, this is a game in which both groups are going to dig in, and there’s a chance this game is disgusting to watch. In a game like that, you want the points.
Bet: Magic +5.5 (-118 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – February 27th
New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns – 9:00 pm ET
Bradley Beal has scored at least 19 points in six straight games and I see no reason to go away from him tonight. Honestly, not only has Beal gone Over tonight’s total in six straight games, but he has been flying Over the number. The 31-year-old has scored at least 24 points in five of the six games, and he even had 30 against the Raptors two games ago. Beal is just in a nice zone for Phoenix right now, and he’s clearly feeling confident now that he’s back in the starting lineup. He also gets a great matchup tonight, as the Pelicans are just 28th in the league in adjusted defensive rating (116.6) and they’re also 10th in pace of play (100.3). This should be another Suns game in which stops will be hard to come by, and Beal should be able to take advantage of a game like that.
Bet: Beal Over 18.5 Points (-115)
UPDATE (7:45 pm ET): Bradley Beal is now out for this game, as he’s dealing with some calf soreness. I’m adding Grayson Allen Over 2.5 Assists (-109 – 1.5 units) to my card. Allen should see a good bump in playing time with Beal out, and I like the way he has been attacking the basket and looking to find teammates lately. Allen has recorded at least three assists in six of his last seven games, and he has had at least four in two of those games.
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
Timberwolves +7.5 (-143) vs. Lakers – I thought about pulling the trigger on this at +6.5, but I was nervous about the status of Anthony Edwards. Well, the line has since gone down to Minnesota +5.5, so it seems like Edwards is leaning towards playing. To be a little safer, I’m paying up a bit and grabbing the Timberwolves at +7.5. But I generally do like this matchup for Minnesota. The Timberwolves are an elite defensive team, so they should be able to make life somewhat difficult on this talented Lakers squad. Obviously, Los Angeles has no shortage of offensive weapons, but the team is still new to playing together. The Timberwolves’ size and physicality should test them. I also have some faith in Minnesota executing offensively against Los Angeles’ defense. I’m not buying what we have seen from the Lakers on that end of the floor lately.
Grayson Allen Over 2.5 Assists (-109 – 1.5 units) vs. Pelicans
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2024-25 NBA Record: 268-267-2 (+4.60 units)
