Now that the weekend is here, it’s time to simplify the grind. Instead of splitting sides/totals and player props into separate pieces, my weekend columns will bring everything under one roof — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Fewer words, hopefully the same results. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Saturday, April 4.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today
Nuggets ML (+117) vs. Spurs
Spurs at Nuggets – 3:00 pm ET
The Spurs have undoubtedly been a better team than the Nuggets this year, and Denver is also dealing with Peyton Watson being inactive today. However, I still think it’s tough to pass on the Nuggets at plus-money odds at Ball Arena. Denver has won seven games in a row, so the team has ben able to string together wins and build some chemistry lately. Sure, the Nuggets haven’t really played anyone, but we know this team can be trusted to score the basketball — and that doesn’t change against the league’s third-best defensive team when looking at adjusted defensive rating (110.5).
Denver just has to prove that it can get some stops, which is the big question mark facing this team heading into the postseason. However, having Aaron Gordon to defend Victor Wembanyama is a luxury that nobody else has. And while the defensive backcourt pieces might not be there for Denver to slow down the San Antonio three-headed monster at guard, I can still see Jamal Murray out-gunning those guys. That’s how good of a scorer he is.
The Nuggets are also 9-4 straight-up when playing with two or more days of rest over the last three games, and we haven’t seen Denver since Wednesday. That gives the Nuggets a nice rest advantage over the Spurs, who played the Clippers on Thursday and will be playing their third game in four nights here.
NBA Player Props Today
Will Riley Over 14.5 Points (-110 – 1.5 units) & Riley Alt Points 20+ (+300 – 0.5 units) vs. Heat
Wizards at Heat – 3:00 pm ET
I don’t blame anyone for skipping Washington games recently, but Riley has been one of the true breakout players of the season. He’s going to be a big part of the Wizards core moving forward, as it’s clear Washington has something special in him. Well, I like Riley to put it all on display against the Heat. Riley comes into this one having scored at least 18 points in four of the last five games, and he also had 22 points against Miami back on March 10. Riley is a good shooter — off the catch and off the bounce — and he’s better as a driver/finisher than he was billed as coming out of school. All of that should help him take advantage of a good matchup, with the Heat being a bottom-10 team defending above-the-break 3s, shots in the short mid-range area, and pull-up jumpers. Miami is also below average defending spot-up jumpers and guarding in transition.
Daniss Jenkins Over 23.5 Points + Assists (-118) vs. 76ers
Pistons at 76ers – 7:00 pm ET
Jenkins is averaging 27.9 points and assists per game over the last eight contests, going Over tonight’s total of 23.5 in six of those games. He continues to thrive playing without Cade Cunningham, even having 26 points and eight dimes against a good Timberwolves defense on Thursday. Well, Jenkins will now be in a massive role against a 76ers team that struggles to defend electric on-ball guards. Philadelphia has an awesome backcourt — and VJ Edgecombe is a great individual defender — but the team has been lit up by players like Jenkins lately. That said, I’m playing Jenkins to stay rolling tonight. He struggled his last time out against Philadelphia, but the same was also true before he torched Minnesota.
Additional Plays (Late Adds, Teasers, Parlays, Futures)
Nothing yet.
