Now that the weekend is here, it’s time to simplify the grind. Instead of splitting sides/totals and player props into separate pieces, my weekend columns will bring everything under one roof — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Fewer words, hopefully the same results. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Saturday, December 20.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today (Sides/Totals)
Rockets ML (-112 – 2 units) vs. Nuggets
Rockets at Nuggets – 5:00 pm ET
The Rockets are 0-2 against the Nuggets this season, but anybody that watched the last game saw that some poor officiating got in Houston’s way. I’d be surprised if this game is officiated in a lopsided manner — at least to that extent. The Rockets are also going to come into this game extra hungry, which is something Alperen Sengun actually verbalized when he appeared on The Zach Lowe Show earlier in the week.
If Houston is truly coming into this game with some extra intensity, I’ll take my chances with a big play on Ime Udoka’s squad pulling through. The Rockets aren’t too far off the Nuggets when looking at adjusted offensive rating, as Denver is first in the league (123.0) and Houston is third (119.8). However, the Rockets are fourth in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (111.8), while the Nuggets are 18th (115.9). Denver will also be missing two crucial defenders in Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon.
Clippers ML (+105 – 1.5 units) vs. Lakers
Lakers at Clippers – 10:30 pm ET
Backing the Clippers is a risky proposition these days, but the team should get up for a cross-town rivalry game with the Lakers. Also, the Lakers will be without Austin Reaves in this game, while the Clippers are expected to get James Harden back.
The Clippers might be having a poor year defensively, but the Lakers are actually 29th in the league in raw defensive rating (123.3) over the last 10 contests. With that in mind, it isn’t hard to imagine a scenario in which the Clippers absolutely carve them up. And with the Lakers playing without Reaves, it could be a little harder for them to generate quality looks here.
I just don’t think the Clippers should be available at plus-money odds here. If the Clippers have any pride, they’ll show up and compete here. This team is also 71-49 straight-up under Ty Lue when playing only a second game in five days. Those old, banged-up bodies tend to respond when getting some time to heal up. They also respond to blowout losses. Under Lue, they’re 11-7 SU when coming off a road loss by 20 or more. That’s exactly what they got when they went into Oklahoma City and lost to the Thunder by 21 on Thursday.
NBA Player Props Today
Naji Marshall Over 11.5 Points (-104) vs. 76ers
Mavericks at 76ers – 7:00 pm ET
When looking to see what some of the prices were on the big-name players in the Mavericks-Sixers game, it immediately stood out that Marshall’s point total is down at 11.5. Since the start of December, Marshall is averaging 15.4 points per game in 32.1 minutes per game. He also comes into this one having scored at least 15 points in six consecutive games. He has also scored at least 15 in eight of the last nine.
Marshall isn’t going to be a high-usage player for Dallas, but he’s capable of finishing as a cutter, scoring in transition, and hitting the occasional 3. So, in an up-and-down meeting with a Philadelphia team that doesn’t defend, I think it’s reasonable to expect 12 points from him.
Saddiq Bey Over 12.5 Points (-110 – 1.5 units) & To Score 15+ (+155 – 0.5 units) vs. Pacers
Pacers at Pelicans – 7:00 pm ET
Bey has scored at least 13 points in 11 of the last 12 games. However, that almost feels like it’s burying the crazier statistic. That’s Bey’s average of 19.2 points per game in that 12-game stretch. Bey is just on an absolute heater for New Orleans, and it isn’t one that I see ending here. Bey is a solid 3-point shooter going up against an unorganized defense. He has also been a menace scoring with his in-between game, and he’s getting to the free throw line. I think he’s a threat to flirt with 20 again here, which is why I’m going bigger on the Over of 12.5 and taking an alternate for him to score 15+.
