Now that the weekend is here, it’s time to simplify the grind. Instead of splitting sides/totals and player props into separate pieces, my weekend columns will bring everything under one roof — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Fewer words, hopefully the same results. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Saturday, December 6.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today (Sides/Totals)
PARLAY: Cavaliers ML vs. Warriors & Heat ML vs. Kings (-135 – 1.5 units)
Warriors at Cavaliers – 7:30 pm ET
Kings at Heat – 8:00 pm ET
I don’t love any sides or totals tonight, so I’m playing a two-leg moneyline parlay. For the first leg, I’m looking for Cleveland to take care of business against a Steph Curry-less Golden State team. The Cavaliers have been a little disappointing to start this season, but they have been above average on the defensive end. That should be good enough against a Warriors team that is missing one of the best shot-makers in the history of the sport. And offensively, I think Cleveland has enough talent, plus a good enough scheme, to get quality looks — even against a good defensive group. After all, the Cavaliers should have some momentum after a nice win over the Spurs last night. Also, the Warriors are just 12-42 straight-up as road underdogs of 6.5 to 12 points under Steve Kerr. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 45-12 SU as home favorites under Kenny Atkinson.
In the second game, I like the Heat to bounce back from last night’s loss to the Magic. This is a Miami team that is very good on both ends of the floor, and the group is hosting a Sacramento team that is disastrous in every aspect of the game. The Kings have lost four consecutive games and 12 of their last 14. It’d be pretty surprising if the Heat can’t find a way to get this done. Let’s just hope Miami has a clean injury report.
NBA Player Props Today
Jeremiah Fears Over 16.5 Points (-114) vs. Nets
Pelicans at Nets – 5:00 pm ET
Fears comes into this game having scored at least 20 points in three consecutive games. He now takes on a Nets team that is currently 28th in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (118.9). Brooklyn is also 27th in the NBA at defending around the rim, which is where Fears scores nearly half of his points. I’ll also add that the Nets are 29th defending transition and 30th defending spot-up opportunities. Fears can do a little bit of damage in both of those areas, too. The only concern here is that Brooklyn has been pretty good at defending pick-and-roll ball handlers, as they can generally force the ball out of their hands. However, Fears is so quick with the ball in his hands that I’m not too worried about that. As long as he flirts with 30 minutes, I think he’s going to have around 20 points.
Onyeka Okongwu Over 18.5 Points (-115) vs. Wizards
Hawks at Wizards – 7:00 pm ET
A point total of 18.5 might feel a little high for Okongwu, but this is an awesome matchup for him. This Washington team is 29th in the NBA at defending at the basket, 27th at defending PnR roll men, and 28th at defending above-the-break 3s. Well, Okongwu is an awesome finisher at the rim, capable of hurting teams as a pick-and-roll big. He has also turned into a reliable shooter from deep, and he’s scoring a good amount of his points on above-the-break triples. I also like that the Wizards are just 24th in the NBA at defending putback opportunities, and they’re last in the league defending in transition. Okongwu, who is very active on the offensive boards and quick enough to make things happen in transition, should take advantage of all of that. it’s also worth noting that Okongwu had 20 points against the Wizards on November 25, and his role will be bigger than usual with Kristaps Porzingis out here. His job will also be easier with Alex Sarr, a good shot blocker, out for Washington.
Ryan Rollins Over 26.5 Points + Assists (-118) vs. Pistons
Bucks at Pistons – 7:30 pm ET
My play on Rollins to finish with 27 combined points and assists didn’t get home last night, as he had just 23 in a blowout loss to the 76ers. However, Rollins still played 35 minutes and had a big role in that game, so I’m not quite ready to go away from him yet. This is another game in which Rollins will be playing without Giannis Antetokounmpo — whose trade saga I just analyzed yesterday — and these games have been good to Rollins. In the seven games Rollins has played without Antetokounmpo this season, the talented guard is averaging 31.3 combined points and assists. He also happened to have 31 against this same Detroit team on November 22. That said, I’m taking a chance on him to do it again.
