Now that the weekend is here, it’s time to simplify the grind. Instead of splitting sides/totals and player props into separate pieces, my weekend columns will bring everything under one roof — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Fewer words, hopefully the same results. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Saturday, March 14.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today (Sides/Totals)
Nuggets ML (-149 – 1.5 units) vs. Lakers
Nuggets at Lakers – 8:30 pm ET
The Lakers have won four consecutive games coming into this one. They’re also 7-1 both straight-up and against the spread in their last eight contests, and Luka Doncic has been on an absolute tear. However, it’s still difficult for me to completely buy into what we’re seeing out of the Lakers. At the end of the day, I just don’t trust this defense to hold up against elite offensive teams. So, while Los Angeles is set to play its fifth home game in a row — which is always good on the body and the mind — I’m rolling with Denver this evening.
The Nuggets have also looked sharper lately, as they have won two straight and covered in three straight. The loss three games ago came against the Thunder, and it took a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander triple right at the end of regulation for OKC to win that one at home. There’s no real shame in that. And Denver responded with a 36-point win over Houston, then the team beat San Antonio on the second leg of a back-to-back.
I’m just really expecting the Nuggets to start playing some better defense soon, as Aaron Gordon is back and capable of playing right around 30 minutes. He’s the skeleton key for this team on that end of the floor. Also, it’s starting to feel like Cameron Johnson is finally getting comfortable in this Denver offense. He’s averaging 16.0 points per game over the last two contests, and this group could take a real step forward if he starts knocking down 3s and making defenses pay for ugly closeouts.
The Nuggets also happen to be 35-15 SU as favorites under David Adelman, and they’re also 34-17 SU when facing teams that allow opponents to shoot at least 46.0% with him on the sidelines. This is not a team you want to face with a bad defense. Also, under JJ Redick, the Lakers are 14-22 SU as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
NBA Player Props Today
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 18.5 Points (-110) vs. Bucks
Bucks at Hawks – 3:00 pm ET
I really like Alexander-Walker to do some damage against the Bucks today. I’m a little nervous about a potential blowout leading to decreased minutes, as Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable and the Hawks are big favorites. However, this matchup is too good not to at least go for this. This season, Alexander-Walker is averaging 27.5 points per game in two meetings with Milwaukee. This Bucks defensive backcourt is just completely miserable, and it’s a big part of the reason that the Bucks are 25th in the NBA in defensive rating. Well, Alexander-Walker should take advantage of that. He has worked himself into a deadly 3-point shooter, and Milwaukee is miserable at getting out on spot-up attempts. Alexander-Walker could also hurt the Bucks in transition. I’ll also note that Alexander-Walker has gone Over 18.5 points in eight of his last 13 meetings with bottom-10 defenses.
Kon Knueppel Over 3.5 Made 3s (+125 – 0.5 units) vs. Spurs
Hornets at Spurs – 3:30 pm ET
This appears to be a rough matchup for Knueppel, as the Spurs are a top-five defensive team and has some absolute dogs in the backcourt. However, Knueppel has done rather well in meetings with elite defenses this season. In nine games against top-five defenses, the sensational rookie is averaging 4.1 triples per game. He has also gone Over 3.5 made 3s in seven of the nine. Of course, one of the games in which Knueppel struggled was in a meeting with this Spurs team. He was just 1-4 from deep in that contest. However, I imagine he’ll be a little more aggressive in hunting his jumper in this one. He actually comes into this game having attempted at least eight 3s in five consecutive games. Well, with that kind of volume, I’m putting a little something on this. The Spurs are just 16th in the NBA defending catch-and-shoot jumpers, so I think Knueppel can be a little more reliable than he was in their first meeting.
Additional Plays (Late Adds, Teasers, Parlays, Futures)
PARLAY: Hornets Alt +10.5 vs. Spurs & Heat Alt +7.5 vs. Magic & Clippers ML vs. Kings (-120)
2025-26 NBA Record: 394-378 (+3.93 units)
