Now that the weekend is here, it’s time to simplify the grind. Instead of splitting sides/totals and player props into separate pieces, my weekend columns will bring everything under one roof — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Fewer words, hopefully the same results. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Saturday, March 21.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Player Props Today
Saddiq Bey Over 16.5 Points (-115) vs. Cavaliers
Cavaliers at Pelicans – 7:00 pm ET
Bey has gone Over 16.5 points in six of the nine games he has played with Dejounte Murray, averaging 19.2 points per game in those contests. That said, the return of New Orleans’ point guard hasn’t exactly taken any of his shine away. Bey is still doing a good job of scoring, doing so at all three levels. Well, I’m not sure that’ll change tonight. Also, if you exclude meetings with top-10 defenses in the nine games that Bey has played with Murray, the wing is then averaging 22.7 points per game in seven contests. Well, Cleveland is just 13th in the NBA in defensive rating, so this feels like the kind of spot Bey should take advantage of. The Cavaliers also struggle with good scoring forwards.
Gary Payton II Over 10.5 Points (-136) vs. Hawks
Warriors at Hawks – 8:00 pm ET
Payton II has been playing well offensively for Golden State recently, averaging 12.6 points per game over the last 17 contests. He has also gone Over tonight’s total of 10.5 in 13 of the last 17, and he also comes into this one having scored at least 11 in seven consecutive games. Tonight, Payton will be up against an Atlanta team that has some good, physical on-ball defenders on the perimeter, but the Hawks do fall asleep off the ball. That means Payton should do some damage as a cutter. He’ll also have his chances in transition. And overall, this Atlanta team is just 23rd in the NBA defending inside 10 feet, where Payton scores 75% of his points. If he can somehow knock down a triple or two, this is a number he should hit somewhat easily. As always, we’ll just need to hope the Warriors do enough to stay in this game, as we’d rather see less garbage time in the fourth quarter.
Reed Sheppard Over 3.5 First Quarter Points (+100) vs. Heat
Heat at Rockets – 8:00 pm ET
Last night, Ime Udoka said that it’s time to see if Sheppard can be the team’s starting point guard moving forward. Sheppard has now replaced Tari Eason in the first five, and we’ll see if he can keep that spot heading into the postseason. I think Sheppard is going to run with the opportunity, which shouldn’t surprise anyone that listens to Hardwood Handicappers. However, we shall see. Either way, I like Sheppard to score at least four points in the opening quarter tonight. Sheppard played eight minutes in the opening quarter last night, scoring only three points in his minutes. However, Miami plays at the fastest pace in the NBA, so there’s a chance these teams are flying up and down the floor in the opening frame. The Heat are also just 24th in the NBA defending above-the-break 3s, which make up 51% of Sheppard’s scoring profile. Sheppard can also do himself some favors in transition, or running some pick-and-roll actions.
Cody Williams Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125) vs. 76ers
76ers at Jazz – 9:30 pm ET
Williams is averaging 30.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in the last four games he has played without Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George, and Jaren Jackson Jr. Utah is just rolling the ball out to the young guys, allowing them to get some valuable on-ball reps the rest of the season. That’s why we’re seeing some big numbers out of guys like Williams and Ace Bailey, who will be important pieces to the puzzle when the Jazz flip the switch and become a playoff team next year. Tonight, the injury report doesn’t stop with just the main three either. Brice Sensabough and Isaiah Collier will also be out for Utah, which puts even more on Williams’ plate. The 21-year-old has only played one game without those five players in action this season. That was in the Jazz’s most recent meeting with the Bucks. Well, in that game on Thursday, Williams had 23 points, five assists, and three rebounds. As long as he can avoid foul trouble — and Utah avoids a blowout loss — I think Williams posts similar numbers here.
Additional Plays (Late Adds, Teasers, Parlays, Futures)
PARLAY: Thunder ML vs. Wizards, Hornets ML vs. Grizzlies, Spurs ML vs. Pacers, Heat Alt +10.5 vs. Rockets, Suns ML vs. Bucks (-149)
PARLAY: Lakers Alt +7.5 vs. Magic & Pelicans Alt +10.5 vs. Cavaliers (-145 – 1.5 units)
