Now that the weekend is here, it’s time to simplify the grind. Instead of splitting sides/totals and player props into separate pieces, my weekend columns will bring everything under one roof — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Fewer words, hopefully the same results. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Sunday, November 8.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today
Jazz vs. Timberwolves OVER 223.5 (-110)
Jazz at Timberwolves – 7:00 pm ET
The Jazz are 24th in the NBA in raw defensive rating (114.5) and 12th in pace (101.0). That combination should make Utah an Over team in the long run, even if the Jazz are 6-3 to the Under early in the season. Tonight, I think we’ll see one of many Jazz Overs to come.
In the six games Minnesota has played without Anthony Edwards, the Timberwolves rank ninth in the NBA in raw offensive rating (115.8). LaMelo Ball has this team playing some good offensive basketball, and Minnesota should be able to execute at a high level against a poor Utah defense. But I also envision the Jazz finding success offensively, especially if Will Hardy can piece together small-ball lineups that force Rudy Gobert off the floor.
Speaking of Hardy, the Over is 63-38-3 in Jazz games with totals between 220 and 229.5 under him. It’s also 12-7 when Utah is playing its fourth game in seven nights under Hardy, so tired legs only add to the shootout case.
NBA Player Props Today
Tyrese Maxey Over 6.5 First Quarter Points (-102) vs. Bulls
76ers at Bulls – 3:30 pm ET
Taking Maxey’s first-quarter points prop is a little different from taking Jalen Brunson’s, which we did a couple of days ago. With so many mouths to feed in Philadelphia, we don’t always know what Maxey’s usage will look like. However, the Bulls are the worst defensive team in the NBA, ranking 28th defending shots inside 10 feet and 27th defending above-the-break threes. That sets up well for Maxey, who can knock down shots off the dribble or attack aggressive closeouts. PropsMadness also has Chicago as one of the league’s worst teams against on-ball guards, making this a great matchup.
Maxey might not have the ball in his hands as much as someone like Brunson, but there’s a chance he’s outrageously efficient with his touches. With that in mind, give me the first-quarter Over rather than the full-game number. Philadelphia is nearly a double-digit favorite, so I’d rather have Maxey handle his business early than risk him being rested late.
Jeremiah Fears Over 3.5 Assists (+115 – 1.5 units) & Alt Assists 5+ (+250 – 0.5 units) & Alt Assists 6+ (+524 – 0.1 units) vs. Clippers
Pelicans at Clippers – 9:00 pm ET
Fears has played at least 25 minutes in each of his last five games, averaging 6.8 assists and 9.6 potential assists over that stretch. He has also finished with at least five assists in four of those five games.
New Orleans has a ton of ball-handling options, with Dejounte Murray, Zion Williamson, and Derik Queen all warranting significant time with the basketball in their hands. But Fears is this team’s future at point guard, and if the future isn’t now, it’s sure as hell approaching fast.
Fears should have plenty of on-ball opportunities tonight against a bottom-10 team in defensive rating. The Clippers have also allowed five of the six ball-handlers they’ve faced over their previous three games to go Over their assist totals.
Precious Achiuwa Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-103) vs. Heat
Heat at Kings – 9:00 pm ET
Achiuwa’s minutes have dipped recently, but I think he can clear 14.5 combined points and rebounds even in a shorter stint tonight. He’s averaging 16.7 combined points and rebounds this season, and statistically, this is the best matchup he has had all year.
The Heat are a bottom-10 team in rebound rate, so Achiuwa’s activity on the glass should be rewarded. They’re also 21st in the NBA in two-point defense, 27th defending his preferred shooting zone, and third in pace. That last number helps in a different way: More possessions mean more opportunities for Achiuwa to make plays.
I’ll also note this: Paul Reed, whose game has some similarities to Achiuwa’s, put up 19 points and 11 rebounds against this Miami squad.
Additional Plays (Late Adds, Teasers, Parlays, Futures)
PARLAY: Nets Alt +12.5 vs. Mavericks & Pelicans Alt +7.5 vs. Clippers (-104)
