Week 9 NFL Betting Splits Systems Update:
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the HANDLE has been on a ROAD side of an ATS wager, this majority group boasts a 74-53 ATS (58.3%) record for +15.7 units and a ROI of +12.4%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, DALLAS, NY GIANTS, BUFFALO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games since the start of the ’22 season, DK majority HANDLE bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 228-278 ATS (45.1%) for -77.8 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY GIANTS, SEATTLE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of BETS staked its side in a NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 230-279 ATS (45.2%) for -76.9 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY GIANTS, ARIZONA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games since the start of the ’23 season, DK majority HANDLE groups have been quite sharp, going 140-113 ATS (55.3%) for +15.7 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, DETROIT, DALLAS, DENVER, NEW ORLEANS, NEW ENGLAND, SAN FRANCISCO, BUFFALO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the ’23 season, when the majority number of BETS has backed a team in non-divisional conference tilts with smaller lines (6.5 points favorites or less), these groups have produced an outstanding 150-124 ATS (54.7%) record for +13.6 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA RAMS, HOUSTON, CHICAGO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority HANDLE & number of BETS have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last three seasons, these majority groups are just 145-167 ATS (46.5%) & 145-164 ATS (46.9%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, BUFFALO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: NUMBER of BETS majority groups have been very sharp judging games when there is an exactly 1-game win difference between two teams in matchup. The teams they have gotten behind boast an amazing 165-124 ATS (57.1%) record for +28.6 units over the L3 seasons. The highlight of the 1-win separation games has been when bettors back the ROAD team, as these majority groups have gone 94-64 ATS for 59.5% and +23.6 units of profit.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS
Alternatively, when there is a difference of 2 or more wins in the standings, these majority NUMBER of BETS groups have struggled to a 196-220 ATS (47.1%) mark.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, NEW ORLEANS, DENVER, DETROIT, LA RAMS, NY GIANTS, KANSAS CITY, HOUSTON, LAS VEGAS, ARIZONA, CHICAGO
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Over the last two years it ballooned back up to 44.8. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of BETTORS have gauged these games incredibly well the last three years, going 183-141 ATS (56.5%)!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CIN-ATL, DET-MIA, DAL-IND, LAR-WSH, LVR-SF, TB-CHI
UNDER – NYJ-KC
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of BETS has been on the UNDER in a NFL game total over the L3 seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 66-57 ATS (53.7%). This number for a “super-majority” in NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for HANDLE has also produced a 97-87 (52.7%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-LAC, ARI-SEA
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on HANDLE for betting OVER’s was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in ’23 & ‘24 with a record of 84-107 (43.9%) for -33.7 units (22-19 for +1.1 units in 2026). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the OVER looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): CIN-ATL, DET-MIA, GB-NE, TB-CHI, BUF-MIN
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the OVER trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of HANDLE has been on the OVER, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost regularly, going just 119-136 (46.7%) for -30.6 units over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the OVER.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): DAL-IND, NYG-PHI, LAR-WSH, GB-NE, TB-CHI, BUF-MIN
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