Now that the weekend is here, it’s time to simplify the grind. Instead of splitting sides/totals and player props into separate pieces, my weekend columns will bring everything under one roof — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Fewer words, hopefully the same results. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Sunday, October 26.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today (Sides/Totals)
Miami Heat +3 (-110) & ML (+126 – 0.5 units) vs. New York Knicks
Knicks at Heat – 6:00 pm ET
While we’re only two games into the season, it’s clear Miami is a different team offensively. The Heat are currently eighth in the NBA in raw offensive rating (118.7), thanks to a good showing against the Magic and a clinical performance against the Grizzlies. Miami will now face a New York team that has had problems defensively when facing strong offensive teams — which is just a reality when Karl-Anthony Towns plays big minutes. I’m not sure the Knicks will be able to consistently get stops against this Heat squad, which is wild considering Miami is missing Tyler Herro. But this game really comes down to a trust in the Heat to get good looks while also being the slightly better defensive team. Also, since 2023-24, New York is just 14-16 straight-up when coming off a win over a division rival; the Knicks just beat the Celtics on Friday.
Washington Wizards ML (-124) vs. Charlotte Hornets
Hornets at Wizards – 6:00 pm ET
I have Charlotte to go Over a regular-season win total of 25.5, and I definitely view this team as superior when compared to Washington. However, the Hornets are coming off a hard-fought loss against the 76ers last night. Having to quickly turn around and beat the Wizards, in Washington, feels like a tough ask. Washington might not win a lot of games this season, but this is a very talented group. And talent can win out when facing tired competition. Charlotte is also just 7-35 SU when playing on the road under Charles Lee.
NBA Player Props Today
Sam Merrill Over 11.5 Points (-102) vs. Bucks
Bucks at Cavaliers – 6:00 pm ET
Merrill has been a killer for Cleveland this year, averaging 20.5 points per game in 27.5 minutes per game. Merrill is taking advantage of life without Darius Garland and Max Strus, serving as Kenny Atkinson’s most reliable source of floor spacing. Tonight, Merrill should thrive once again. This meeting with the Bucks has the potential to be an up-and-down affair, as the total currently sits at 235. Our OptaAI player prop projections have Merrill going for 14.73 points.
Pascal Siakam Over 4.5 Assists (+102) vs. Timberwolves
Pacers at Timberwolves – 7:00 pm ET
This season, Siakam is averaging 5.0 assists per game, which puts him a bit higher than his total of 4.5. However, the forward is also averaging 10.0 potential assists per game, and he’s also at 6.0 adjusted assists per game. With Tyrese Haliburton out for the year, Siakam was always going to have to do a little more for this Pacers team. But with Andrew Nembhard banged up, there’s even more on Siakam’s plate when it comes to creation. This is another one in which the projections back up the handicap, as OptaAI has Siakam finishing with 6.84 assists tonight. That’s the largest edge they have in the assists column.
Cooper Flagg Over 0.5 Blocks (-127) vs. Raptors
Raptors at Mavericks – 7:30 pm ET
Flagg just had his best game as a pro, finishing with 18 points, six assists, and five rebounds against the Wizards. Flagg also happened to block his first shot of the year, and I expect him to swat another shot today. Flagg averaged 1.4 blocks per game at Duke last year, and he has tremendous shot-blocking instincts. Of course, the fact that Flagg is playing point guard means he’ll be away from the basket a little more often, but he’s capable of getting in the blocks column with a weak-side help block — or even a chase-down in transition. Either way, the -127 odds feel light for a player that could average a block per night.
