I normally do shortened NBA articles over the weekend, as I like to keep the workload down a little bit. Those articles feature my best bets and player props in one place. Well, I’m not going to skimp on the analysis today, but there are only four games on the card, so it makes sense to combine the articles. Keep reading for my NBA best bets and player props for Thursday, November 12.
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NBA Best Bets Today
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 227.5 (-109)
Mavericks at Timberwolves – 8:00 pm ET
These teams are both strong on the defensive end of the floor. Minnesota is currently No. 5 in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (110.0), while Dallas is No. 12 (111.8). However, these teams also happen to be top-15 squads when looking at pace of play, and both rotations are stacked with talented shotmakers and playmakers. That’s ultimately what guided me to the Over.
The last four games the Timberwolves have played against teams with winning records have gone Over, and I don’t think that’s surprising. Teams with good backcourts should be able to have success against a guard rotation that features LaMelo Ball guarding at the point of attack, and Minnesota knows that. The Timberwolves are simply asking him to compete, then do a better job of executing on the other end of the floor.
NBA Player Props Today
Paul Reed Over 7.5 Rebounds (+114) vs. Wizards
Pistons at Wizards – 7:00 pm ET
Reed is coming off a 10-rebound performance against the Wizards on Monday. That’s back-to-back 10-rebound games for the 27-year-old, and all we need is eight from him tonight.
Reed is starting while Jalen Duren recovers from a hamstring injury, and he has filled in admirably. He’s a good source of energy on both ends of the floor, and he should be able to impact this game with his activity on the glass.
Only three teams in basketball do a worse job of rebounding than Washington, which is interesting for a team with size inside. But we’ll look for Reed to exploit that poor rebounding, and we’ll do so with a plus-money play. Let’s just hope he doesn’t get into foul trouble. He can be a bit overzealous, and we need him to play around 25 minutes tonight.
Ayo Dosunmu Over 17.5 Points (-115) vs. Mavericks
Mavericks at Timberwolves – 8:00 pm ET
Dosunmu is averaging 21.6 points per game since Anthony Edwards went down with a knee injury, and the guard has scored at least 19 points in five straight games. Well, considering I have the Over on tonight’s meeting between Dallas and Minnesota, I’m not exactly expecting Dosunmu to slow down.
This season, the Mavericks are just 20th in the NBA in defending shots inside 10 feet, and Dosunmu does a good amount of his damage there. He likes to attack downhill, and he’s also very confident with runners and floaters.
Dosunmu is also dangerous as a spot-up shooter, so he’ll take advantage of any quality looks Ball sets up for him.
It’s also hard not to like that Dosunmu scored 27 points against the Spurs on October 31 and had 21 against the Rockets on November 4. He’s not intimidated when facing strong competition.
Additional Plays (Late Adds, Teasers, Parlays, Futures)
Nothing yet.
