Thursday Night Football Best Bets: Commanders Vs. Giants Picks and Betting Splits

SPONSOR

🏈 Giants Get the Money. So Why Is the Line Moving Toward Washington?

The Giants are 5-2-1 atop the NFC East and riding a two-game winning streak into tonight’s Week 10 opener against the Commanders (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video).

The early money is coming in heavy on New York — more than 70% of the handle at DraftKings and more than 85% at Circa.

But . . .

Circa moved the Giants from -2.5 to -2 on Wednesday. Despite all that New York support, the move suggests some respected money may be showing up on Washington (2-5-1).

Count VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen among those who see an opportunity with the Commanders.

“While the Giants will be billed as the hotter team coming into this one, make no mistake about it: Washington isn’t some pushover.”

Zach points out that Washington has played like a top-10 defense over the last three weeks. On offense, he looks for Jayden Daniels to find the same success running the ball (103 yards, two touchdowns) as he did in the teams’ first meeting.

Daniels should have plenty of motivation. Remember the clock mismanagement that cost Washington a chance to win that game, which ended in a tie?

» Zach’s Best Bets, including a prop based on an Opta AI projection

Meanwhile, Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley is licking his wounds after favorites cleaned up in Week 9. That may help explain his play tonight.

» Tuley’s Takes on every Week 10 game

» VSiN Betting Splits

» Opta AI Prop Projections

Programming note: Keyshawn Johnson and Patrick Meagher will provide live Commanders–Giants commentary on the Thursday Night Betcast (8–11 p.m. ET).

SPONSOR

🏈 We Found 3 Winners Last Week. Can We Do It Again?

Last week, we put Steve Makinen’s NFL analytics to work, looking for the strongest signals among his power ratings, statistical models and betting systems.

We came up with three plays. All three cashed.

» See last week’s analysis in the VSiN Community

So we’re back for Week 10.

Two underdogs caught our attention because all three of Steve’s rating systems favor them. We also identified a Sunday night total where two models suggest the market is off by more than three points.

» See our Week 10 Analytics-Based Picks in the VSiN Community

Let me know what you think.

SPONSOR

🏈 Two Thursday CFB Games. Two Best Bets. Two Model Edges.

Thursday’s college football schedule is light on quantity, but VSiN’s handicappers have found some intriguing opportunities.

Steve Makinen’s Effective Play-by-Play Ratings suggest the spreads may be off by 5.5 points in Memphis–South Florida and 3.3 points in Louisiana–Louisiana-Monroe.

But which teams have the edges?

» See Steve’s Week 11 Effective Play-by-Play Ratings — and which sides the model favors

Adam Burke has a Best Bet on Memphis–South Florida, where he’s identified a significant offensive mismatch. Memphis has produced nine plays of 50-plus yards this season, while South Florida has none.

» Adam’s Thursday CFB Best Bets

Steve Makinen has an official Best Bet on Louisiana–Louisiana-Monroe, supported by his power ratings, a conference betting system and a striking home-field disadvantage.

» Steve’s Week 11 CFB Best Bets

🏈 USC–Indiana: The Mystery of a Four-Point Line Move

Frequent VSiN guest Chris Fallica asked the question on X: Why did Circa move Indiana from -7 to -11 against USC in just 55 minutes?

» See Fallica’s post

Not even the Circa risk room knew why money was pouring in on the Hoosiers.

Circa’s Jeff Davis: “We started taking sharp money at -7, and it continued through all the sub 10 numbers. We briefly were at 11 before settling at a version of 10. The Big Ten injury report comes out in 90 minutes, so I suspect we’ll have additional info that explains the sudden IU money surge.”

The injury report came out — nothing.

Then respected pro bettor Rufus Peabody entered the conversation:

Mystery solved.

Caveat: Rufus is one of my favorite people in sports betting, but his most recent pick on X was UTSA -7 vs. FAU last Thursday. UTSA lost by 31.

🏀 College Basketball: Follow The Angle

Just a reminder: Follow The Money producer Luke DiVasta is posting his “The Angle” picks in the VSiN Community.

The Angle went 2-1 last night. You can find the selections here, although the system doesn’t necessarily produce a pick every day.

» Follow Luke’s The Angle picks in the VSiN Community

🏒 NHL: Two Prop Trends Worth Watching

Jonathan Davis notes that Washington’s Ryan Leonard has recorded at least two shots on goal in 26 consecutive games, including each of his last four meetings with Thursday’s opponent, New Jersey. The price is -220.

If that’s too juicy, JD suggests a Quinn Hughes assist in Minnesota’s game at Toronto as a potential parlay piece. Hughes has an assist in four straight games and 17 of 20 this season, including nine of his last 10 against Toronto and in each of his last four visits to Scotiabank Arena.

JD’s full NHL Best Bets will be filed later today.

» VSiN NHL coverage

⚾ A 300-1 Ticket Cashes

Congratulations to Matt Youmans, who cashed his 300-1 Cy Young futures bet on Cam Schlittler, the unanimous American League winner. Here’s hoping it’s just the beginning of a heater. Matt still has three live Circa Survivor entries.