I normally do shortened NBA articles over the weekend, as I like to keep the workload down a little bit. Those articles feature my best bets and player props in one place. Well, I’m not going to skimp on the analysis today, but there are only two games on the card, so it makes sense to combine the articles. Keep reading for my NBA best bets and player props for Thursday, November 5.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today
Magic ML (-102) vs. Suns
Magic at Suns – 9:00 pm ET
I never feel great about fading my own team. It’s always an internal conflict. Do I root against my squad, or do I root against my wallet? Fortunately, with the Suns now 1-5 on the season, I don’t need to feel too bad about rooting against them. This season is going nowhere fast. A loss tonight won’t be what keeps Phoenix from turning in a successful season. With that in mind, let’s play Orlando.
While the Suns are playing the second leg of a back-to-back tonight, the Magic haven’t played since Monday. That’s a major edge in rest and preparation for the road team.
The Magic are also just the better basketball team. Neither team should be celebrating the way the season has started, but Orlando’s efficiency differential is 5.2 points better than Phoenix’s (-7.6 vs. -12.8). Phoenix also happens to be last in the NBA in points allowed per 100 possessions (128.5) and rebound rate (45.3).
It isn’t too hard to envision Orlando doing a decent job of keeping Phoenix’s offense down, but I have very little faith in the Suns getting the stops required to win this game. Phoenix is actually 1-10 straight up under Jordan Ott when coming off three or more consecutive Overs, which speaks to how this team can slide when defense isn’t being prioritized.
NBA Player Props Today
Anthony Black Over 14.5 Points (-115 – 1.5 units) & Alt Points 20+ (+300 – 0.5 units) vs. Suns
Magic at Suns – 9:00 pm ET
In addition to liking Orlando to beat Phoenix, I also believe Black is in for a big game. Black has scored at least 17 points in three of his four games this season, and I’m not sure he has faced a defensive backcourt as soft as this one.
PropsMadness has the Suns ranked 25th at defending lead guards and 29th at defending players with Black’s “shot zone.” Above-the-break threes also make up 41% of Black’s shot profile, and Phoenix ranks 29th in the NBA at defending that part of the court.
On top of that, the Suns really struggle to defend pick-and-roll ball handlers. Black should be able to do some good work attacking the rim in this one, and he should fly by 14.5 points if he’s knocking down open shots.
Draymond Green Over 6.5 Assists (+110) vs. Heat
Heat at Warriors – 10:00 pm ET
Hopefully Green doesn’t get himself tossed from this one, as I like him to finish with at least seven assists against the Heat.
Miami is coming off a good win over Los Angeles last night, digging deep to pull out an overtime victory against the kind of squad it needs to beat consistently. Should it have been that close? Probably not. But the Heat won the game, and that’s all that matters.
Unfortunately for Miami, playing the second leg of a back-to-back after an overtime game isn’t ideal physically. The Heat could have tired legs here, and they’re already 27th in the NBA in points allowed per 100 possessions (118.5).
Either way, I trust Green to consistently find cutters and shooters against a struggling defense. Before getting ejected against Phoenix in his last game, Green was averaging 7.2 assists and 12.8 potential assists per game. He remains an elite playmaking hub.
Additional Plays (Late Adds, Teasers, Parlays, Futures)
Nothing yet.
