College Basketball Picks
We have a lot more options on the college hoops card for Thursday, as there are 43 Division I vs. Division I games on the docket. One thing I want handicappers to remember is that college basketball is a lot like what we see in college football. Those FBS teams that lose in noteworthy fashion to FCS schools get discarded by bettors and there is often some spread value on them going forward. Similarly, teams involved in big upset losses in hoops, especially to a lower-division opponent, could play out the same way. Sure, they might also be really bad, but more often than not, it was just an off night and a team will play closer to its level moving forward. Some food for thought while thinking about today’s action.
Handicapping early-season college basketball is a big challenge because there are so many new faces and moving parts, but it is also a market that provides a ton of opportunity for those who are prepared. That’s one reason why our 2026-27 College Basketball Betting Guide is so valuable. Also a reason why Steve Makinen’s College Basketball Daily Matchup Ratings will be useful.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from Circa Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook (mostly Extra Games) at time of publish.
Mercer at Virginia Tech (-20.5, 155)
7 p.m. ET
Pick: Mercer +20.5
Both teams opened up the season in fine fashion, as Mercer knocked off lower-division Reinhardt and Virginia Tech beat Coppin State, who might as well be a lower-division team. The Eagles are Division I in name only, as they haven’t won more than nine games since 2019-20. While they don’t run the way that they used to under Juan Dixon, they do typically play faster than the average team, but Virginia Tech pulled them down to 72 possessions in a game that featured 38 turnovers.
The Hokies did move a bit quicker last season under Mike Young than they had in previous seasons, but I don’t know if that will stick. This is a team that loves to shoot 3s and will take time looking for the perfect shot. They did not play in transition much and really slowed opponents down bringing the ball up the court. In other words, 20.5 points is pretty big in a game that will likely be in the 70-72 possession range.
That’s because Mercer has run the floor under Ryan Ridder. He’s 34-32 over two seasons and one game with the Bears and has this group moving much quicker than previous head coach Greg Gary. He’s also injected some offensive life into the team, which is vital in the SoCon. Ridder’s team was 271st in eFG% and 319th in adjusted offensive efficiency in Year 1. In Year 2, his team improved by nearly 8% at the free throw line and was 97th in eFG% and 131st in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Obviously it was against a lesser foe, and nobody played more than 24 minutes, but Mercer dropped 90 on Reinhardt while going just 10-of-35 on 3s. This is a team that improved by leaps and bounds in Year 2, especially on the glass and in terms of getting to the free throw line. I think Ridder’s a really good coach and he has some solid talent here, including some homegrown kids, plus 6-foot-10 Maine transfer Keelan Steele, who shot 60% on 2s last season for the Black Bears.
Usually these mid- and low-majors end up getting beaten badly on the physical end by the high majors. Virginia Tech is not a terribly tall team and 6-foot-8 Amari Hansberry doesn’t post up often, as the Hokies prefer to play on the perimeter. Unless they shoot the lights out, I can’t see the Hokies covering this big number.
Northern Illinois at Tulsa (-15, 154)
8 p.m. ET
Pick: Over 154
Eric Konkol did one of the best coaching jobs in the country last season, as Tulsa went from 13 wins to 30 wins, losing in overtime in the NIT Championship Game to Auburn. Konkol’s crew was 12-6 in games decided by six or fewer points, largely due to their shot selection and ability to make 3s. The Golden Hurricane fired from deep on 46.7% of their shots and bombed away at 38.5%, which was 10th in the nation.
Unfortunately, a lot of those shooters are gone for Tulsa, but that won’t stop them from letting it rip. In the season opener against the Ottawa (KS) University Braves, Tulsa fired 40 3s in a game played to 70 possessions. Nobody played more than 20 minutes, as Konkol wanted to evaluate the roster in what was basically a controlled scrimmage, but a lot of guys were efficient, as the team had 1.403 points per possession.
Certainly Northern Illinois is better than Ottawa University, but the Huskies had a tough time stopping Grambling during the Field of 68 Marathon. They only lost by a deuce in the 3 a.m. ET game, but Grambling was 21-of-26 on Close Twos and 27-of-37 on 2s overall. NIU outscored Grambling 42-15 on 3s and still lost the game.
But, what was striking was that the Huskies took more 3s (31) than 2s (29) and actually had a strong offensive effort with 1.277 points per possession. Unfortunately, they gave up 1.307. But, I do believe that Matt Majkrzak is a big upgrade for the program after failing to have a winning season under Rashon Burno. Those teams were awful on both ends of the floor, but especially terrible on offense.
It might be a work in progress with the defense here, but the offense and the improved shot selection should really help in DeKalb. Konkol’s 2025-26 team was 11th in Far 2 Shot Share per Torvik, which is awesome. It means they’re either shooting 3s or getting to the rim, two things that are conducive to an Over.
East Texas A&M at Rice (-3.5, 145.5)
8 p.m. ET
Pick: Rice -3.5
The biggest upset of the season right now belongs to East Texas A&M, as the Lions beat Oklahoma in Norman by a 68-64 count. It was a truly incredible win for Jaret von Rosenberg’s team. In his four seasons with the program, he hasn’t won more than 13 games and he did that in Years 1 and 2. His team won just 11 games last season. But, as we know, in today’s landscape, it’s not that hard to turn things around quickly.
Here’s the thing, though. The Lions shot 40.7% from 3 against the Sooners in that game. JVR’s offense has not been good over his tenure, finishing 338th, 264th, and 284th in eFG% offense the last three seasons. They’ve also turned the ball over a ton, something that they did do against Oklahoma. Frankly, the Sooners have nobody to blame but themselves. They came out lackadaisical against an overmatched opponent and paid the price. They were also just 17-of-32 at the free throw line and went 8-of-27 from the floor in the first half before going 13-of-25 in the second half, good for a 58% eFG%.
Rice won’t be overlooking the Lions based on that data point. Rob Lanier has one of the toughest jobs in the country because this is a school that has strict academic requirements and not a ton of money to go around. However, two starters are back and Jacob Dar returned after a season at Seton Hall.
We didn’t really find out much against Dallas Christian in a 45-point win for the Owls, though that game was played to 83 possessions, which is an extreme number, especially in a blowout. Maybe it was just the opponent, but Rice also took 43 3-pointers. They took 46 in the finale against UTSA, but the most they had taken prior to that last season was 34. It looks like Lanier, at least at the outset, is going to speed up the game and take more 3s, which makes Rice a higher-variance team, but a way more compelling one.
We’ll see if it sticks, but maximizing possessions and shot selection against a team that is historically poor on offense strikes me as a good plan of attack. And maybe the Lions win, but this line opened more like 6 and the win over Oklahoma has permeated the market, maybe a little too much.
