I only have a few plays for the loaded NBA slate on Tuesday, March 17. So, while I normally break things down with two separate articles, I’m bringing everything under one roof instead of splitting up sides/totals and player props — a streamlined look at my favorite bets for the day’s slate. Keep reading for my NBA picks and predictions for Tuesday.
RELATED: Check out the Pro Picks page for more selections from our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NBA Best Bets Today
Hornets -3.5 (-110) vs. Heat
Heat at Hornets – 7:00 pm ET
The Heat beat the Hornets in Charlotte on March 6, earning a 128-120 victory. That makes this an interesting revenge spot, and I really think the Hornets will get their lick back.
When these teams last met, Miami shot an absurd 18 for 38 from 3. That’s 47.4% from behind 3-point land, which really doesn’t seem replicable heading into this matchup. The Heat also had only six turnovers in that game, but opponents are averaging 12.7 turnovers per game against the Hornets. That’s actually one of the lowest marks in the NBA this season, but it’s still way higher than just six.
It just feels like there’s some regression coming for Miami, and Charlotte is the better team to begin with. Since January 1, the Hornets are 23-12 with an Efficiency Differential of +9.6. That’s the second-highest differential in the league since the calendar turned. Meanwhile, the Heat are 20-15 with an Efficiency Differential of +4.1.
It’s simply hard not to feel like this is a low number to be laying with one of the best teams in basketball over the last couple of months. The Heat are also a little banged up, as Andrew Wiggins is out and Bam Adebayo is questionable.
UPDATE: Adebayo is now listed as doubtful.
Suns ML (+148) vs. Timberwolves
Suns at Timberwolves – 8:00 pm ET
The Suns are in a pretty rough travel spot, as they lost a close game against the Celtics in Boston last night and then had to head to Minnesota. I’d normally look to back the home team in this scenario, but Anthony Edwards is out for the Timberwolves. Minnesota also happens to have Naz Reid listed as questionable. With that in mind, this is a game in which Phoenix will easily have more firepower, making the team a live underdog in a massive game.
The Wolves have just been a little disappointing offensively all season, ranking 12th in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating (115.9). Well, things aren’t going to get better with one of the top scorers on the planet injured. Of course, with Ayo Dosunmu slotting into the starting five tonight, there is a good chance Minnesota is extremely tough to score on. However, I’ll take my chances with Devin Booker and Jalen Green, who have been electric as a scoring duo recently.
The Suns have also responded well to losing all year. They’re 8-2 straight-up and 7-3 against the spread under Jordan Ott when coming off two or more consecutive defeats. That said, Phoenix can be trusted to show up and compete after last night’s disappointing result. I’m actually not even taking the points here. I’m going right for the moneyline. I got it at +148 and you can still get at least +140.
NBA Player Props Today
James Harden Over 19.5 Points (-114) vs. Bucks
Cavaliers at Bucks – 8:00 pm ET
Harden has looked lousy the last two games, but this is a good opportunity for him to bounce back. Milwaukee’s backcourt is extremely weak defensively, meaning Harden should find a way to score at least 20 here. The Bucks are 28th in the NBA when it comes to defending above-the-break 3s, where Harden scores 51% of his points. Also, Milwaukee is 29th in the NBA when it come to guarding spot-up jumpers. Of course, Harden plays with the ball in his hands a lot, so you might not think he’ll get catch-and-shoot opportunities. However, Donovan Mitchell will get his chances to run the show, moving Harden off the ball. Well, as long as Harden is ready to fire, he could see some clean looks at the rim. I also expect Harden to do some good work as a driver once the defense is stretched by his jumper.
Harden is also averaging 21.7 points per game in road games since being traded to the Cavaliers. And overall on the season, he’s averaging 21.7 points per game when facing bottom-10 defenses when looking at defensive rating. The Bucks are 25th.
Additional Plays (Late Adds, Parlays, Teasers, Futures)
Hawks To Make Playoffs (-135 – 3 units) & Hawks To Win Southeast Division (+550) – I got into this on today’s episode of Hardwood Handicappers.
2025-26 NBA Record: 403-386 (+1.94 units)
