The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing. I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Saturday, January 11th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on January 11th
NBA Best Bets Today – January 11th
Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 pm ET
This Timberwolves team is actually rather hot right now, as they have won six of their last nine games. Offensively, Minnesota still has a lot of work to do. But the team is fourth in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (109.2), so the Timberwolves should be able to make life very difficult on the Grizzlies — even with Ja Morant back and coming off a 27-point performance last game. And offensively, Minnesota did unlock Anthony Edwards by moving Mike Conley to the bench. Conley is still a good table-setting point guard, but the spacing in the starting lineup is just a little better with Donte DiVincenzo in the first five. DiVincenzo has also been unlocked himself, as he’s shooting 39.4% from 3 in January. That’s big for the Timberwolves, as he looked uncomfortable early in the year and was a big part of the Karl-Anthony Towns-for-Julius Randle swap.
Overall, I’m a little higher on the Grizzlies when thinking about the big picture in the Western Conference. A good argument can be made that Memphis is the No. 1 threat to Oklahoma City. However, the Grizzlies still have some important pieces out, and they do have some work to do in getting comfortable with the guys they have now. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are starting to look more like a real basketball team in which all the players understand each other. In terms of recent form, I think Minnesota has the edge. The Timberwolves are also 62-51 straight-up in games with lines of +3 to -3 under Chris Finch.
Bet: Timberwolves ML (-122 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – January 11th
Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns – 5:00 pm ET
It’s hard not to feel bad for Bradley Beal from a basketball perspective. He’s way too good to be coming off the bench for anybody. However, he was traded to a team in which he wasn’t given the type of green light required to play his best basketball. Well, moving Beal to the bench has helped a little. Beal is averaging 20.0 points per game since the change, and he’s benefitting from having a few extra stretches each game in which he doesn’t have to defer to Devin Booker or Kevin Durant. Maybe Mike Budenholzer will move him back to the starting lineup eventually. He is too good of a player to need to take this hit in pride and ego. But if he ever does get back in the starting five, it’ll be up to Booker and Durant to make him comfortable by allowing him to play like himself a little more.
None of the above is relevant. I’m just ranting a little as a Suns fan. However, I do like Beal to score at least 17 points tonight. He has been more aggressive since all the changes, and he’s not thinking as much. That allows him to play freely and rely on his shot-making ability, which is still top-notch. And this Jazz team is bad defensively. Utah has been a little more competitive lately, but the team is last in the league in adjusted defensive rating (117.1) on the season. And the Jazz play at the 11th-fastest pace (100.0) in the league, meaning they welcome high-scoring games.
Bet: Beal Over 16.5 Points (-120)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Raptors Alt +10.5 vs. Pistons & Blazers Alt +10.5 vs. Heat (-108 – 1.5 units) – Depending on the day, you might get better numbers with alternate spreads than teasers. This is one of those days. So, instead of taking a 6-point teaser at -125, I’m grabbing the same numbers at -108. Once again, while many don’t see values in NBA teasers, it really depends on the situation. When I can, I try to identify the sharp sides of bets, utilizing a lot of the same numbers that our very own Josh Appelbaum does. However, sometimes I can’t quite get there with the spreads. So, instead of just passing completely, I look for creative ways to back the teams. Lately, I’ve been landing here.
For the Raptors, I just can’t shake that this team is now fully healthy. And it’s a group that is a little more talented than people think. In fact, we just saw Toronto hang around in a 132-126 loss at Cleveland on Thursday. Sure, the Cavaliers were without Donovan Mitchell in that one, but they have plenty of talent outside of him. It was a good showing for the Raptors, who had a real shot of winning outright. Now, I just like Toronto to be respectable in a loss to a Detroit team that is coming off a bad home loss to Golden State. The Pistons scored just 104 points in that game, and that’s not insignificant to me. I’m worried about Detroit’s offense without Jaden Ivey. Also, under Darko Rajakovic, the Raptors are 12-8 against the spread as road underdogs of 6 or fewer points. So, they are solid in these spots. An extra six points can’t hurt.
The other game is a little more straightforward. While Portland might seem like an NBA bottom feeder, this team has covered in four straight and five of its last seven. So, much like the Toronto game, I’m thinking an extra cushion of six points should help. However, I actually think there’s a good shot the Blazers win outright. This is the fourth game of a six-game road trip for the Heat, so they have to be a little tired right now. And Jimmy Butler’s attitude might have been rubbing people the wrong way, but it never really helps losing a two-way contributor like that. The fallout of not having Butler in a game like this is that Miami no longer has an edge in overall talent over Portland.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 162-159-1 (+2.90 units)
