The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing. I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Thursday, January 16th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on January 16th
NBA Best Bets Today – January 16th
Phoenix Suns at Washington Wizards – 7:00 pm ET
The Wizards have lost seven games in a row. Six of the seven losses came by double digits. Washington has also covered in just two of its last seven games, so things are looking horrible right now. But do you know what could be a good medicine for that? A meeting with Phoenix. The Suns have covered in just four of their last 15 games, and they have been getting absolutely destroyed on the boards. Phoenix’s center situation is so miserable that the team just dealt multiple second-round picks for Nick Richards. That’s a center that should be a backup on most teams, but the Suns are so desperate for bigs that they had to give up some of their last few tradable draft picks. Oh, and Richards won’t be with the team until Saturday. Phoenix is also still without Jusuf Nurkic. So, this will be the same roster that was outrebounded by 17 in a meeting with Atlanta the other night. The Suns have now lost the battle on the glass by double digits in five of their last seven games.
This just feels like a game in which Jonas Valanciunas will make a big impact. He comes off the bench and plays roughly 20 minutes per night, but his minutes could be very ugly for the Suns.
Washington, like most teams, is also probably looking at this like a winnable game, much like Charlotte did when the team beat Phoenix at the Spectrum Center last week.
Not only are the Suns light on big men in this game, but Bradley Beal is out with an ankle sprain. More Grayson Allen minutes might not be a bad thing for Phoenix. The team can use his floor-spacing out there. But he has been a little banged up himself, and he might be an attackable player on the other end of the floor.
Realistically, it’s just hard to see a scenario in which the Suns beat the pulp out of the Wizards. I’m a big Phoenix fan and am more optimistic about the group than others, but the Suns only have one win my 12 or more this season. That came earlier in the year when the vibes were much better in the Valley. Phoenix is also 0-3 against the spread as a favorite of 10 or more this season, and the team is 2-12-1 ATS versus Eastern Conference opponents. The Suns can’t even take advantage of matchups with the weaker conference.
Bet: Wizards +11.5 (-110 – 2 units)
Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 pm ET
The Rockets blew out the Nuggets in Denver last night. So, I understand anybody that says fatigue won’t be a factor for Houston. The starters didn’t play a lot of minutes, and there wasn’t too much stress for anybody on the roster. But it’s still the second night of a back-to-back, and it’s against a red-hot team. Since Doug Christie took over as the Kings interim coach, Sacramento is 7-2 and looking great on both ends of the floor. The Kings have an offensive rating of 118.0 and a defensive rating of 111.8 in that span. Sacramento just has a much more trustworthy rotation now, with an increase in Keon Ellis minutes being a big part of that. And I just don’t see the team failing to show up in this spot.
We actually saw the Kings earn a 120-111 win over this Rockets team at the Golden 1 Center back on December 3rd, and that was when Sacramento was in much worse shape. In that game, Domantas Sabonis completely dominated around the basket, finishing with 27 points on 13 for 19 shooting. Well, I’m not sure I see Houston doing a better job on him this time around. Sabonis can occasionally look a little small compared to some bigger centers, but that’s not an issue with Alperen Sengun. Sabonis can move him around and easily get to his spots. The De’Aaron Fox-Fred VanVleet matchup is also a brutal one for the Rockets. VanVleet can’t stay in front of Fox, even if he does compete hard on that end.
This is now one of those matchups in which both teams can be relied on to defend, as Christie has brought the dawg out of this group. But Sacramento has a little more than Houston when it comes to shot-making. It should also be noted that the Rockets are just 6-9 ATS as a road underdog of 6 or less under Ime Udoka.
Bet: Kings -3.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – January 16th
Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder – 7:30 pm ET
With no Isaiah Hartenstein for the next week, we could see the return of Jalen Williams at center. I’m not sure how that will go for the Thunder against one of the biggest frontcourts in the NBA, but I do like Williams to take advantage of it offensively. Williams was regularly going off as a scorer when drawing some slower defenders earlier in the season. In November, he averaged 22.7 points per game, making it his highest scoring month of the season — and the reason he’s averaging over 20 this season to begin with.
If Williams gets a bunch of opportunities to work against Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, he should be able to cook a little off the bounce. But even if he’s covered by a traditional wing, he’s a threat to go off. He had 25 when these teams met in Cleveland on January 8th.
Bet: Williams Over 20.5 Points (-120 – 1.5 units)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 171-173-1 (-6.22 units)
