The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing. I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Saturday, January 18th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on January 18th
NBA Best Bets Today – January 18th
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics – 7:00 pm ET
I don’t feel great about Jalen Johnson being out for Atlanta here, but it’s still somewhat hard to trust Boston to cover a big number. This season, the Celtics are just 11-15 against the spread when favored by 10 or more. Boston is also 3-11 ATS when coming off a home win, as well as 1-9 ATS when coming off a win by 20 or more. The Celtics are also just 4-9 ATS when facing teams with winning records this season, and they’re 5-9 ATS when facing teams that score 116.0 or more points per game. On top of all of that, the Hawks won 117-116 as 16-point underdogs in Boston earlier in the season. Atlanta is now 4-1 ATS in its last five games against Boston, and this has felt like a matchup that has given the Celtics trouble in the past. Even with some of the weaker Hawks teams, Trae Young has been able to drag Atlanta to some competitive performances against Boston. His speed gives the physical Celtics backcourt trouble. So, even without seeing the final injury reports, Atlanta is worth taking a shot on. However, I’m not going big on this out of respect for Boston.
Bet: Hawks +10 (-108)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Minnesota Timberwolves – 9:00 pm ET
I was able to find a 7 on this game, triggering a play for me. However, I would only play it at 7. So, if you want to tail this one and see it at 6.5, I’d suggest seeing the cheapest way to get it up a bit more. I definitely hate this scheduling spot for Minnesota, as the team just faced New York at Madison Square Garden. This will be the second night of a back-to-back and a third game in four days for the Wolves, and I usually look to avoid these games. However, I can’t help but think that this is a pretty big spread. Cleveland has actually failed to cover in four of its last six games, and it certainly seems like there’s a shot Evan Mobley is out tonight. If he does miss this game, this would be an incredible number. The Cavs would be without an elite defender and their most versatile offensive frontcourt option. But I wouldn’t take this unless I thought it had a chance of winning even with Mobley healthy. And that’s where I look to the fact that Minnesota is 5-2 straight-up in its last seven games. This is still a Timberwolves team that is fifth in the league in adjusted defensive rating (109.8) and the offense is climbing a bit. Minnesota also plays top teams well. Under Chris Finch, the Wolves are 19-9 ATS versus teams with winning percentages of 70.0% or higher.
Bet: Timberwolves +7 (-110 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – January 18th
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 pm ET
Tyrese Haliburton only had 17 points last game, but he had scored at least 18 points in six of his previous nine games before that. And one of those games saw Haliburton play 19 minutes with an injury. He’s just shooting the ball incredibly well right now, and he’s even better at home. In Indiana, Haliburton is averaging 20.1 points per game on 47.0% shooting from the floor and 40.9% shooting from 3. The All-Star is also averaging 27.0 points per game in two meetings with the Sixers this season. Last year, he averaged 29.0 points per game against them. Haliburton simply loves this matchup, making it hard to pass on an Over with a total this low. The only thing I’m thinking can derail him here is a blowout win for Indiana.
Bet: Haliburton Over 17.5 Points (-110)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Minnesota Timberwolves – 9:00 pm ET
The VSiN NBA Prop Bet Analyzer shows us that Anthony Edwards has gone Over a 3.5-make 3-point total in 29 of the 41 games in which it has been lined that way. I took this one in last night’s game against the Knicks and Edwards hit it in the first half. He ended up going 8 for 13 from deep on the evening, marking the third game in a row and seventh time in the last eight games that he hit at least four 3s. It’s just clear that Edwards is free to take any shot he wants in this Minnesota offense, and his shot diet is heavy on triples. And realistically, volume is all that matters with these types of plays. Based on his 3-point percentage, if Edwards takes 10 or more 3s then this is a play worth taking. And he has done that in six of his last eight games.
It’s also worth noting that the Cavaliers are allowing opponents to shoot 36.5% from deep, so it’s not like they smother opposing shooters. And I like that Edwards is a lot bigger than Cleveland’s guards, so he should be able to shoot right over the top when he gets the right matchups and switches.
Bet: Edwards Over 3.5 Made 3s (+106 – 1.5 units)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Suns Alt Spread +7.5 vs. Pistons & Pacers ML vs. Sixers (-167 – 1.5 units) – This play is a little juicy, so I’m sure many will lay off it. And I imagine a lot of people have been ignoring these parlays this year anyway. However, I believe Phoenix is going to be competitive in Detroit today. The Suns will have Nick Richards in the rotation for the first time all year, and that should give the team a little juice. Richards is far from some sort of savior, but Phoenix has been dejected by the play of its center group all season long. Having somebody with a little energy should do wonders for the Suns. Also, our VSiN NBA power ratings have the Suns at 98.5 and the Pistons at 96.0. So, I think I’m giving myself a good amount of wiggle room with 7.5 here. And the second game is really rather simple. With no Joel Embiid, I’m just not seeing a path to Philadelphia winning in Indiana. The Pacers have a home net rating of +2.3 this season. The Sixers have a net rating of -2.1 on the road. And Indiana now has its full rotation healthy. This is a dangerous team. More on that below.
Pacers To Win Eastern Conference (44-1 – 0.25 units) – Since December 6th, Indiana is 14-5 with an Efficiency Differential of +8.2. In that span, the Pacers are sixth in the NBA in points per 100 possessions (118.5) and fourth in points allowed per 100 possessions (110.3) — according to Cleaning The Glass. Rick Carlisle has made some minor schematic tweaks on defense that have completely changed the season for Indiana. The group is also starting to play much better offensively, looking like the well-oiled machine it was a year ago. The Pacers also just got Aaron Nesmith back, meaning almost the entire rotation that made the Eastern Conference Finals is together. The only notable absence is Isaiah Jackson, who tore his Achilles. I actually do love the energy Jackson brings off the bench, so it’s not like that loss is meaningless. But it helps that Indiana has an electric wing like Bennedict Mathurin healthy after missing last year’s playoff run. He gives them another guy that can create offense for himself, taking pressure off Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. Thomas Bryant has also been solid in backup minutes at center, and even Jarace Walker is giving Indiana a little something. That said, it feels like the Pacers are worth a flier in the East — especially at the number FanDuel is offering. I’m not sure I see Indiana beating Boston in a seven-game series, but I don’t see much that separates the Pacers from the other Eastern Conference teams. So, I’m throwing a little something on this and hoping to hedge down the road.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 175-181-1 (-13.55 units)
