The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing. I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Wednesday, January 1st. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on January 1st
NBA Best Bets Today – January 1st
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets – 8:00 pm ET
Theoretically, Houston should be able to slow down a Luka Doncic-less Dallas team. The Rockets are third in the league in adjusted defensive rating (108.1) and they pride themselves on being tough on the ball. However, having the on-paper ability to defend Kyrie Irving and actually defending Kyrie Irving are two completely different things. And I’m just not sure I see Houston completely stifling the electric shot creator in this game. Meanwhile, the Mavericks continue to look more and more like the team they were to end last season, meaning their defense should be trusted to slow down a Rockets team that can struggle to create good looks in a half-court setting. And that’s especially true with Dereck Lively II likely to return tonight. If Dallas has the center duo of Lively and Daniel Gafford, it’s hard to imagine Houston dominating the game inside. And that’s exactly what needs to happen in order for the Rockets to win this game by a significant margin.
It’s also hard to ignore that the Mavericks are 17-2 against the spread when going on the road to face an opponent that upset them at home earlier in the season — since the start of the 2023 season. That’s what Houston did when the team earned a 108-102 road win over Dallas back on October 31st. And not only are the Mavericks 17-2 ATS in such games, but they have won them by an average of 7.8 points per game. This Dallas team is very driven and is filled with highly-competitive players. This group is going to want to go out and get the Rockets back, especially with this being an in-state rivalry.
Bet: Mavericks +5.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – January 1st
Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 pm ET
Dyson Daniels has been dealing with an illness, so he hasn’t played since December 26th. However, the 21-year-old averaged 12.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game in December. That’s good for a combined 21.4 points, rebounds and assists per game. And I’m taking him to go Over the 20.5 mark in combined points, rebounds and assists tonight.
When Atlanta and Denver met on December 8th, Daniels had 18 points, six assists and four rebounds. It was a game that was played at a very fast pace, meaning all of the ball handlers on the floor had opportunities to make plays. Well, I don’t see that changing in a game with a total of 246. The Nuggets are also relatively weak when it comes to defending off-ball guards, so Daniels should be able to do some damage as either a spot-up shooter or a cutter. Adding that to what he’s going to do in transition, along with his limited on-ball opportunities, Daniels should be in for a good game offensively. And I don’t have many doubts about him chipping in with some rebounds.
Bet: Daniels Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115 – 1.5 units)
Parlays/Teasers/Late Added Plays/In-Season Futures
6PT Teaser – Magic +7.5 vs. Pistons & Kings -0.5 vs. 76ers (-125 – 1.5 units) – I know people say not to tease the NBA, but I have been enjoying these throughout the year. The reality is that FanDuel’s pricing makes it very easy to fall in love with these plays, and there’s certainly a time and a place for them. Well, this is one of them. I like the Magic to give the Pistons a run for their money tonight, but getting the 1.5 or 2 isn’t enough. I want a little insurance in case this is a close game late and it ends with Detroit at the free throw line. This is my way of getting that. I’m teasing through multiple key numbers and only paying a small -125 price to do it. I’ll just need the Kings to handle their business in the night cap, and they’ll be attempting to do that against a Sixers team that won’t have Joel Embiid. Sacramento can be hard to trust, but the Kings should be able to end this Sixers hot streak with a win at the Golden 1 Center.
Paul George Over 19.5 Points (-110 – 2 units) vs. Kings
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2024-25 NBA Record: 141-139-1 (+2.87 units)
