We’re more than halfway into the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Monday, March 3rd. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 3rd
NBA Best Bets Today – March 3rd
Golden State Warriors at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 pm ET
Steph Curry returning home and playing in Charlotte has the potential to get scary for the Hornets, but I still don’t understand why this Warriors team is laying double digits on the road. For starters, Jimmy Butler is questionable after having missed last game. This team already has Jonathan Kuminga out, meaning the wing depth for Golden State might be a problem. But more importantly, we just watched the Warriors struggle mightily with the Magic and the Sixers. And things are only getting tougher with this being the third game on a five-game road trip.
Of course, Golden State beat Charlotte by 36 points when the teams met at the Chase Center on February 25th, and that’s clearly fresh in the minds of everybody heading into this one. However, LaMelo Ball didn’t play in that game, and that changes everything with a Hornets team that desperately needs his shot-creation ability. With Ball back in the mix, a much stronger offensive performance can be expected from Charlotte. And I’m not sure the Warriors are going to be able to generate enough easy offense to cover this big of a number. Outside of Curry, this team still has highly questionable offensive contributors.
This Hornets team also happens to be 15-9-2 against the spread as a home underdog under Charles Lee, and Charlotte is also 12-8-2 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more this season. The Hornets also happen to be 12-7-2 ATS when playing teams with winning records this year, and they’re also 5-1-1 ATS when playing teams with winning percentages between 51% and 60%. That said, I’m firing up Charlotte to cover BetMGM’s 13.5-point spread tonight, but I’m also sprinkling the Hornets to cover an alternate number of 7.5.
Bet: Hornets +13.5 (-118 – 1.5 units) & Hornets Alt +7.5 (+200 – 0.5 units)
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 pm ET
I’m not going to go crazy with the Rockets tonight, but I do think 10 is a little too much for Oklahoma City to be laying tonight. The Thunder just played a somewhat tight game against the Spurs in San Antonio last night, and having to travel back home for the second leg of a back-to-back won’t be easy. And that’s especially true hosting this Rockets team. Houston has been struggling lately, losing nine of its last 14 games. However, this team is still a top-five group in the league in adjusted defensive rating (109.3). The Rockets are also playing just their second game in five days, so some of the players that are listed as questionable should really be out there tonight.
Speaking of Houston playing just its second game in five days, the Rockets are 25-9 straight-up and 22-12 ATS in that rest situation under Ime Udoka. They’re also 27-17 SU and 26-17-1 ATS revenging a road loss against an opponent under him. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is just 32-35-3 ATS when playing on back-to-back days under Mark Daigneault.
Do I think Houston will win this game? Probably not. But if the Rockets have a little luck with the injury report, they should be able to avoid getting blown out.
Bet: Rockets +10 (-113)
NBA Player Props Today – March 3rd
Golden State Warriors at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 pm ET
LaMelo Ball only had three assists against the Wizards on Saturday, but it’s hard to overreact to that one outing. Ball is averaging 7.0 assists per game this season, as well as 12.8 potential assists and 8.6 adjusted assists per game. The reality is that if Ball is playing 30 or more minutes, taking him to go Over 6.5 is a good play. And that’s especially true at plus-money odds. I know this Golden State team has looked good defensively lately, but Ball is going to play fast and look to get his teammates some easy buckets. And if his teammates are knocking down some shots, he should ultimately flirt with seven assists. And there’s a better chance his teammates will make shots at the Spectrum Center than there was at the Chase Center in the last meeting between these two.
Bet: Ball Over 6.5 Assists (+115)
Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 pm ET
Dante Exum got in foul trouble against the Bucks on Saturday, but he racked up at least three assists in nine of the 10 games he played in February. That makes it hard to worry too much about his zero-assist outing against Milwaukee last game. Simply put, with Luka Doncic now in Los Angeles, there are more on-ball opportunities to go around in Dallas. And while Kyrie Irving is the player that is mostly going to handle the rock for the Mavericks, Exum is going to have his chances. He has been a very good decision maker for Dallas. So, I’m firing up Exum to reach three assists tonight, and I love that he’s facing a Sacramento team that is pretty miserable defensively. This game should be somewhat high in scoring, meaning there will be some under-the-radar players that put up good numbers. Exum could be one of them.
Bet: Exum Over 2.5 Assists (-130)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Heat ML vs. Wizards & Grizzlies ML vs. Hawks (-159 – 1.5 units)
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2024-25 NBA Record: 274-278-2 (-1.76 units)
