We’re more than halfway into the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Tuesday, March 4th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 4th
NBA Best Bets Today – March 4th
Houston Rockets at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 pm ET
While the Rockets don’t strategically look to play at one of the league’s fastest paces — they’re just 19th in pace of play (99.0) — they are second in the NBA in field goal attempts per game (93.3). Meanwhile, the Pacers do prioritize playing an uptempo game, as they’re seventh in the NBA in pace of play (100.8). With that in mind, it really wouldn’t be surprising if this game turns into a bit of a track meet.
The Over is actually 20-11 in the 31 road games that Houston has played this season, suggesting the Rockets tend to lose out on the battle of playing style when playing away from home. To add to that, the Over is 28-22 when Houston plays against teams that score 116.0 or more points per game with Ime Udoka on the sidelines. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 15-11-1 to the Over in home games this season. The Over is also 36-21-1 when Indiana plays against teams with winning percentages between 60% and 70% under Rick Carlisle.
This is also the second leg of a back-to-back for the Rockets, so the players that played last night could have some tired legs. That said, the Pacers would be wise to push the ball up the floor and hunt easy baskets — especially with the Rockets being one of the best defensive teams in the league when they have time to set their defense.
Overall, I would just be surprised if Houston is able to suck Indiana into a slower game. So, I’m going Over and hoping for some good shot-making throughout this one.
Bet: Over 231.5 (-110)
NBA Player Props Today – March 4th
Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic – 7:00 pm ET
Franz Wagner just had one assist in a 104-102 loss to Toronto on Sunday, but I’m going to the big wing to go Over 3.5 assists in tonight’s rematch. It’s just hard to ignore that Wagner had gone Over this mark in four of his previous five games. And over the last 13 games, Wagner is averaging 7.4 potential assists and 4.2 adjusted assists per game. I have just been regularly putting trust in Wagner to set his teammates up, and he has been doing it more often than not lately. So, I think it’s fair to throw out what we saw last game and go back to the well. The Raptors are just 22nd in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (114.5) this season, and the Magic should come prepared with a better way to attack them. That will likely include a heavier dose of Wagner, plus a little less Paolo Banchero.
Bet: Wagner Over 3.5 Assists (-135)
New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 pm ET
Jaxson Hayes has had at least seven rebounds in four of his last six games, and I’m only turning to him to have at least six tonight. The reality is that Hayes produces pretty much every time he gets 25 or so minutes, and I’m not sure there’s anything preventing him from reaching that mark tonight. Los Angeles is also facing a New Orleans team that is just 23rd in the league in rebound rate (43.6). The Pelicans are also giving up more offensive rebounds per game (12.0) than all but four other teams. So, Hayes should really be able to make things happen with his combination of length, athleticism and hustle. A motor goes a long way when facing an opponent that is soft on the glass.
Bet: Hayes Over 5.5 Rebounds (-130)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Magic ML vs. Raptors & Knicks ML vs. Warriors (+108 – 1.5 units) – I’m backing the Magic to figure things out and get revenge for a bad loss to the Raptors on Sunday. Of course, this Orlando team is missing quite a bit of juice with Jalen Suggs out, but this is still a great defensive team that is capable of winning games at home. In fact, the Magic are 18-14 with a net rating of +1.6 at home this season. Meanwhile, the Raptors are 6-23 with a net rating of -7.3 on the road. That said, I’d be surprised if Orlando can’t get back in the win column. I’m just not willing to lay any points, so I’m parlaying the Magic and Knicks to win on the moneyline. With New York, it’s just hard not to like that the team is coming off a day off. Meanwhile, Golden State played a game in Charlotte last night. And overall, I just don’t think the Warriors are nearly as good as the Knicks, making this an odd line for a game at Madison Square Garden. Of course, it’s scary going against Steph Curry at MSG. He loves a big stage. However, he’s listed as questionable for this one, and he’s really the only player New York has to worry about. That said, Tom Thibodeau should be able to come up with a defensive game plan for Golden State. Let’s just hope Karl-Anthony Towns sheds his questionable tag and plays.
Pelicans +8.5 (-110 – 2 units) vs. Lakers
Suns +5.5 (-143 – 2 units) vs. Clippers
Suns ML (+132) vs. Clippers
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2024-25 NBA Record: 277-281-2 (-3.27 units)
