We’re more than halfway into the 2024-25 NBA season. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Thursday, March 6th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 6th
NBA Best Bets Today – March 6th
Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 pm ET
Since December 5th, the Pacers are 26-11 and have the fifth-best Efficiency Differential in the league, according to Cleaning The Glass. Indiana is also a top-10 team in both points per 100 possessions and points allowed per 100 possessions in that span. This has been one of the best teams in the league for months now, and I just can’t help but like the Pacers to handle their business against the Hawks this evening.
I know Tyrese Haliburton is listed as questionable tonight, and it’d obviously be nice to see him active. However, even if Haliburton doesn’t play, this team has Andrew Nembhard and TJ McConnell to run the show. That said, I’m not sure Indiana needs Haliburton to beat a mediocre team like Atlanta. In fact, if Haliburton does end up missing this game, the Pacers might actually get a nice defensive boost, making them an even tougher matchup for the Hawks. Atlanta is 10th in the league in offensive rating over the last 10 games, and the team is just 25th in defensive rating. So, it might not be the worst thing in the world for the Pacers to be a little better off defensively, as they should be able to score in this game no matter what.
Atlanta also happens to be just 10-18 straight-up as a home underdog of 6 or less under Quin Snyder. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 46-30 SU against teams that allow at least 116.0 points per game under Rick Carlisle.
Bet: Pacers ML (-145)
New York Knicks at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:00 pm ET
The Lakers have been doing nothing but winning since trading for Luka Doncic, but it feels like they have been somewhat fortunate. Opponents have shot just 34.5% on uncontested 3s against Los Angeles, allowing the Lakers to get away with some of the modified zones they’ve been playing. Well, the Knicks are eighth in the league in 3-point percentage (37.0%), so they should be able to make the Lakers pay for poor closeouts. Also, I’m not sure Los Angeles has anybody that can really cover Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns in isolation situations.
Of course, the Knicks also have to be able to cover the Lakers. And with Doncic, Austin Reaves and LeBron James in the mix, that isn’t easy. But it should help that New York has some big wings to throw on the two forwards, and Josh Hart will take pride in trying to slow down Austin Reaves. Also, Towns is usually one of the Knicks’ weak links defensively, but the Lakers don’t have any bigs that can punish him. It’s also hard to imagine him getting in foul trouble against a team that primarily shoots jumpers.
This just feels like a game in which the Knicks should be able to lean on some of their continuity to execute down the stretch. And New York is a very competitive bunch, so this team is going to be looking to try and cool down the praise this Los Angeles team is getting.
Bet: Knicks +4 (-108 – 1.5 units) & Knicks ML (+145 – 0.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 6th
Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 pm ET
Jalen Green is shooting just 40.4% from the floor and 31.8% from 3 since the start of March, but tonight’s meeting with the Pelicans could be a get-right spot for the talented guard. Over the last 10 games, New Orleans is just 23rd in the league in defensive rating. Also, over the course of the entire season, nobody is giving up more made 3s per game than the 14.8 the Pelicans are allowing. That said, I like Green to get himself going from deep tonight. I know four made 3s is a lot to bank on, but Green has gone Over 3.5 makes 25 times this season. He also happened to do so in both of his previous meetings with New Orleans, making four against the Pelicans on December 19th and then six on December 26th.
Bet: Green Over 3.5 Made 3s (+130)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 283-286-3 (-2.82 units)
