The 2024-25 NBA season is underway. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who will be writing NBA features for us twice per week this year. And try to listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Tuesday, November 12th.
Also, if you’re not familiar with how the Emirates NBA Cup works, make sure you check out JVT’s look at the format and his predictions to win. All eight of tonight’s games are part of the Group Play stage, making this an even more exciting night of action in the association.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on November 12th
NBA Best Bets Today – November 12th
Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic – 7:00 pm ET
The Magic are favored by quite a bit against the Hornets tonight. Part of that is because Orlando is a better team than Charlotte, and the Magic would be favored over the Hornets anywhere. But the spread looks a bit inflated to me because of the point differential tiebreakers that came into play during the Group Play stage of last year’s NBA Cup. Not only do teams need to win, but they think they need to win big. The problem with that logic is that both teams are trying to make it to the next part of this tournament. It’s not a one-way street. And I simply can’t get on board with seeing the Magic as 8.5-point favorites over the Hornets with Paolo Banchero wearing street clothes.
The reality is that this Orlando team can struggle to score the basketball even when Banchero is out there. This was a bottom-10 team in offensive rating last season, and they’re 26th in the NBA in offensive rating this season. So, with one of the best isolation scorers in the league sitting on the sidelines, I’m not sure Orlando will be able to torch a Charlotte team that is actually 16th in the NBA in defensive rating to start this year. The Hornets have been much better on this end of the floor than they were a year ago, with head coach Charles Lee doing a great job of adding some structure to the Charlotte defense. Meanwhile, the Hornets will have the best offensive player on the floor in LaMelo Ball. That gives Charlotte some hope of finding offensive success against an Orlando team that is second in the league in defensive rating. I know Jalen Suggs will be out there to harass Ball at the point of attack, but Ball just averaged 33.5 points and 5.0 assists per game in two meetings with Boston. He’s matchup-proof in his ability to create for himself and his teammates.
Charlotte is also 6-4 against the spread this season, while Orlando is just 4-7 ATS thus far. On top of that, the Magic are 2-4 both straight-up and ATS in their last six games. Those are the six games that Orlando has played without Banchero. And while the Magic have won and covered in two straight games, those were against the shorthanded Pelicans and the miserable Wizards. The Hornets are a huge step up in competition.
Bet: Hornets +8.5 (-115 – 1.5 units)
Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 pm ET
Oddly enough, while the Pistons have been miserable for years, they’re 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Heat. That includes an eight-point loss as an 8.5-point underdog in Miami on October 28. And since then, Detroit is 4-3 both SU and ATS. This Pistons teams is starting to play some good basketball, while the Heat have lost four of their last six. Also, over the last three seasons, Miami is 12-17-1 ATS as a road favorite of 6 or fewer points. The team is also 7-21 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages of 25% to 40%. And if that’s not enough, the Heat are just 5-7 SU when playing a fourth road game in seven days. So, right off the bat, Miami is trending in the wrong direction and could be a little tired here. Meanwhile, the Pistons are playing just their third game in five days, and they should be fired up to start the Group Play stage. This is exactly the type of team that can enjoy a tournament like this.
There’s also very little that separates these teams when it comes to net rating. Miami’s net rating through nine games is -1.3, while Detroit’s is -2.4 through 11 games. That small difference can be made up by the Pistons having home-court advantage. We saw in last year’s NBA Cup that the fans are a little extra rowdy for these games.
However, the real reason to like Detroit is that the team is playing some great defense right now. This season, the Pistons are 14th in the league in defensive rating. They’re marginally better than the Heat on that end of the floor. But Detroit also happens to have the best offensive player on the court in Cade Cunningham, who had three consecutive triple-doubles before having 26 points, nine assists and eight boards last game. He’s operating at a whole different level right now, and I like him to lead the Pistons to a big win here.
Miami is also a team that has been to the NBA Finals multiple times with this core of players. The In-Season Tournament likely doesn’t motivate the group at all. And Jimmy Butler is also out for the Heat in this game, so Miami is without its best two-way player — and the guy that likely would have handled the Cunningham assignment. This one really should go Detroit’s way.
Bet: Pistons +1.5 (-110 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – November 12th
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:30 pm ET
Karl-Anthony Towns is knocking down 2.4 triples per game for the Knicks this season. He has also made at least two 3s in six of the nine games the team has played. With that in mind, I’m a little surprised to see that his 3-point total is down at 1.5 tonight. And even though the Over is juiced like crazy, I’m playing Towns to knock down two 3s against the Sixers. I know that Joel Embiid is back tonight, making this look like a more daunting matchup. However, I actually think Embiid’s presence makes it even more likely that Towns will knock down multiple 3s. As long as Towns does pick up a bunch of cheap fouls guarding Embiid, his job on the other end of the floor will be to pull the Philadelphia superstar away from the basket. The more 3s that Towns attempts tonight, the more space Jalen Brunson will have to attack the Sixers guards.
Bet: Towns Over 1.5 Made 3s (-172)
Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors – 10:00 pm ET
Stephen Curry is only averaging 22.0 points per game and 6.3 assists per game this season, and Steve Kerr has gotten away with playing him 28.3 minutes per night. That number is also up because Curry played 37 minutes in a road game against the Thunder on Sunday. But that game is precisely why I love Curry to go Over his combined points and assists numbers tonight. While Curry has played 27 or fewer minutes in five of the seven games he has played this season, he played 34 minutes against the Celtics and 37 against the Thunder. When Golden State plays tough opponents, Kerr gives Curry his usual workload. Well, Curry had 27 points and nine assists against Boston and 36 points and seven assists against Oklahoma City. He’s still Stephen Curry. It’s just matchup dependent. And while I do like the Warriors to win this game, I don’t think they’ll do it easily enough for Curry to take a backseat to anybody. Golden State will need Curry to be Curry.
Bet: Curry Over 31.5 Points + Assists (-118 – 1.5 units)
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2024-25 NBA Record: 45-41 (+4.16 units)
