The 2024-25 NBA season is underway. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who will be writing NBA features for us twice per week this year. And try to listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Friday, November 15th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on November 15th
NBA Best Bets Today – November 15th
Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 pm ET
I put a big play in on the Sixers to win this game yesterday. Unfortunately, I ended up getting really bad odds. However, I’m still extremely confident that this game is going to go Philadelphia’s way. So, if you didn’t jump on this when I gave it out in yesterday’s column, you can get a much better number now. And there’s nothing in the injury report that we weren’t expecting. Joel Embiid and Paul George will play tonight, and Tyrese Maxey remains out for the next couple of weeks. If anything, the most surprising news on the injury report was that Wendell Carter Jr. is out. That wasn’t completely unexpected or anything, but there was at least a small possibility that he’d try to go here. Now, the Magic are down Paolo Banchero and Carter against a Sixers team that is down only Maxey. And like I said when I mentioned this game yesterday, these are starting to feel like must-win games for Philadelphia. Sure, Orlando wants to win the Emirates NBA Cup. Everybody does. But the Sixers have a very small margin for error when it comes to making the playoffs after this rough start. So, they should be desperate over the next few weeks. Game on.
This just should be a very difficult matchup for the Magic. Orlando has played some good basketball without Banchero over the last week or so, but this team is still very short on firepower without him. And with Philadelphia inching back to full strength, the Sixers should start to look more and more like a team that was rock-solid defensively last year. That said, I would be pretty surprised if we see a highly efficient game from the Magic offensively here.
As for the Philadelphia offense, things should look alright starting this evening. I know Maxey is out. That stings. However, rookie Jared McCain is averaging 28.0 points per game over the last three games. He honestly looks like a slower version of Maxey, as he’s a dynamic shooter and can be tough to cover when attacking the basket. And while Jalen Suggs might be able to take some of that away, the Magic also have to deal with George and Embiid. And guarding Embiid without Carter’s big body is going to be a serious challenge.
I just think there’s a little too much offensive weaponry with the Sixers in this matchup, and they should be able to match the defensive intensity of the Magic. Also, for as good as Orlando has been under Jamahl Mosley, the team is just 20-21 straight-up in games with lines of +3 to -3. So, the Magic tend to underperform when a battle is expected to break out.
Bet: 76ers ML (-137 – 2 units)
NOTE: This is my play because I locked it in yesterday. However, you can grab some favorable plus-money odds with the Sixers now, or you can take +2.5 to play it a little safer. As far as I’m concerned, there’s no wrong answer. I think Philadelphia wins this game outright, and I am expecting one of the team’s best efforts of the year.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 pm ET
This is a game that will see heavy public action on the Kings. Minnesota is coming into this one on a three-game losing streak, and the Wolves are also coming off back-to-back losses to a lousy Blazers squad. Meanwhile, the Kings are winners of seven of their last 10, and they’re playing at home. However, we already saw Minnesota beat Sacramento at the Golden 1 Center earlier in the year. That was a game in which the Kings led by as many as 12 points, but it was clear in the second half that this is a good matchup for the Timberwolves. Minnesota was able to turn things up defensively, as the team has the type of in-your-face defenders you need to defend De’Aaron Fox — who likely won’t have DeMar DeRozan (back tightness) to help him. This is still a very good defensive team, with Cleaning The Glass having the Wolves seventh in points allowed per 100 possessions (111.2). That’s what you get when you have good perimeter defenders funneling players towards Rudy Gobert, the best rim protector in basketball.
However, the real reason this matchup is so kind to Minnesota is that Sacramento lets the team off the hook for being so average offensively. The Timberwolves haven’t quite meshed on that end of the floor, but the Kings have a lot of weak defenders scattered throughout their rotation. So, Minnesota can get away with playing a lot of iso-ball. That’s exactly what happened in the first meeting between these teams. Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle combined to score 65 points, and the two of them just took turns cooking the Kings. Well, I’m backing Minnesota in this matchup until I see that Sacramento can solve that problem. And if the Kings try to do that by sending extra defenders at that duo, the Timberwolves should be able to knock down some 3s. Last game, Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels and Donte DiVincenzo combined to shoot just 3 for 17 from deep, and they did that on great looks. That likely isn’t going to happen again.
I also love that Minnesota is 42-20 SU as a road favorite under Chris Finch. This team isn’t intimidated by playing in tough road environments. Meanwhile, Sacramento is 23-29 SU when playing six or more games in 10 days under Mike Brown. This team could be a little fatigued, and that has been a problem for the Kings in recent seasons.
Bet: Timberwolves ML (-120 – 2 units)
NBA Player Props Today – November 15th
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 pm ET
Brandon Boston Jr. is currently averaging 11.6 points and 3.9 assists per game for the Pelicans. However, those numbers are a little down because he played three minutes, 10 minutes and 23 minutes in his first three games in New Orleans. Since then, Boston has played at least 30 minutes in six consecutive games. And he has gone Over tonight’s combined points and assists total of 18.5 in three of those games. And while two of the Unders have happened in each of the last two games, I like him to get back on track with some solid numbers against the Nuggets.
While Denver is now 7-3 after a miserable start to the season, the team is still just 19th in the NBA in points allowed per 100 possessions (115.3). The Nuggets also struggle to defend lead guards, which isn’t surprising considering their defensive options at the point of attack. Denver also specifically allows opposing guards to rack up assists, and no team in the league is giving up more assists per game than the 30.7 nightly dimes the Nuggets are allowing. That said, I can see Boston putting a nice dent into this total with his scoring, but I also think he’ll do a good job of setting up his teammates.
Bet: Boston Jr. Over 18.5 Points + Assists (-120)
Added Plays
PARLAY: Pacers ML vs. Heat & Knicks ML vs. Nets (-111 – 1.5 units): Again, I’m throwing a parlay in the “added plays” section, as I know this isn’t what people want from a traditional handicapper. However, I like posting everything that I’m personally playing, so I’ll put all parlays and teasers down here. That includes this Pacers/Knicks moneyline parlay. Indiana is off to a slow start this season, but I think this team is about to rattle off some wins. That starts with this home meeting with the Heat. We saw how crazy this crowd got during the Emirates NBA Cup last year. There’s a legit home-court advantage here. But I also just don’t see the Heat consistently getting stops against this Pacers offense, and I’m not too concerned about a mediocre Pacers defense going up against an inconsistent Miami offense. As for the other game, I simply don’t see the Knicks losing two in a row at Madison Square Garden — especially against a pair of weak opponents. New York should get back on track with a win in this crosstown rivalry.
Grizzlies +7 vs. Warriors (-110 – 2 units)
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2024-25 NBA Record: 51-45 (+6.97 units)
