The 2024-25 NBA season is underway. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who will be writing NBA features for us twice per week this year. And try to listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Saturday, November 16th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on November 16th
NBA Best Bets Today – November 16th
Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets – 3:00 pm ET
It’s no secret that I’m higher on the Hornets than most this season. However, I’m not even sure that’s relevant here. Charlotte gets a Milwaukee team that is currently without Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton and Ryan Rollins. Also, Bobby Portis is doubtful for this game, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing a little banged up right now. That said, the Hornets are playing the Bucks at the right time. And it’s not like Milwaukee looked all that great even with a healthy Antetokounmpo and Lillard. Not much separates these teams when it comes to net rating.
Also, the Hornets net rating is just -1.4 when playing in Charlotte, while the Bucks have a road net rating of -9.7. On top of that, Milwaukee is weakest defensively at the point of attack, so good luck to the Bucks when it comes to defending on-ball playmakers like LaMelo Ball and Tre Mann. The Hornets are actually 2-1 both straight-up and against the spread when facing teams that force 13.0 or fewer turnovers per game this season. If you can’t pressure the ball and force Ball to make mistakes, you’re in a lot of trouble. That’s why I’m taking the +4 and also putting a bit on the moneyline.
Bet: Hornets +4 (-110 – 1.5 units) & Hornets ML (+156 – 0.5 units)
Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 pm ET
This is the second night of a back-to-back for both of these teams, but it’s the Lakers that had to travel from San Antonio to New Orleans after a hard-fought win over the Spurs last night. That gives the Pelicans a small advantage in the rest department. But the real reason I’m taking this is that Los Angeles is just 2-4 both SU and ATS when playing on the road this season. And New Orleans actually looked pretty solid in a win over Denver last night. The Pelicans earned a 101-94 win as 2-point underdogs in that game, and New Orleans got good performances from Brandon Ingram, Brandon Boston Jr. and Trey Murphy.
Sure, it’d be nice if the Pelicans had a few more healthy bodies here. But I think they have enough offense to give the Lakers trouble. Los Angeles is just 22nd in points allowed per 100 possessions (117.2). And defensively, the Pelicans have length and an emerging rim protector in Yves Missi. All of that can disrupt what the Lakers want to do. So, I’m grabbing +7.5 at a slightly juiced number. It was available at one shop at the time of publishing. However, +6.5 is good with me, or you can buy to +7 or +7.5. I’m also sprinkling the moneyline. This is a game the Pelicans can win.
Bet: Pelicans +7.5 (-120 – 1.5 units) & Pelicans ML (+225 – 0.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – November 16th
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 pm ET
I can’t say I feel great about how often Victor Wembanyama floats around the 3-point line. I believe he’d be better off building his game inside-out a little more, with his 3-point attempts being limited to designed pick-and-pops and above-the-break launches when trailing the play. But for now, I’m happy to try and take advantage of how shot-happy he is from deep. Wembanyama’s 3-point total is just 2.5 tonight, but he has made at least four in each of his last four games. And perhaps more important than that, he has attempted 50 triples in that span. Wembanyama isn’t hesitating at all, making it hard not to like him to go Over this mark. He can shoot poorly and still hit it, which is exactly what happened when he went 4 for 13 against the Lakers last night.
Of course, Wembanyama only made one 3 when he faced Dallas in San Antonio’s season opener on October 24th. But he took eight 3s in that game and will likely approach 10 attempts tonight. So, I’m firing away on this.
Bet: Wembanyama Over 2.5 Made 3s (-120 – 1.5 units)
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2024-25 NBA Record: 54-47 (+7.56 units)
