The 2024-25 NBA season is underway. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who will be writing NBA deep-dive features for us twice per week this year. And try to listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Wednesday, November 27th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on November 27th
NBA Best Bets Today – November 27th
Houston Rockets at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 pm ET
Let’s really put a scheduling spot to the test tonight. The Rockets are scorching hot. Since starting the season 1-2, Houston is 12-4 both straight-up and against the spread. However, the Rockets are coming off a hard-fought overtime win against the Timberwolves last night. It was a very, very physical game, and Houston then had to hop on a plane and head to Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Sixers haven’t played since Sunday, so they have had two full days of rest. They have also had some time to prepare for another couple of games without Paul George and Joel Embiid. This recent stretch without the two stars was somewhat unexpected, especially for Embiid. So, it was probably helpful for Nick Nurse to have a few days to lean into an offense built around the backcourt duo of Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain.
With regards to the spot, it’s really hard to overlook — even with a good team playing a bad one. Houston is 5-13 straight-up when playing on back-to-back days under Ime Udoka. The Rockets are also 1-7 SU when playing back-to-back road games under Udoka. Meanwhile, the Sixers are 13-7 against the spread when facing teams with winning percentages between 60.0% and 70.0% under Nurse. He usually has his team ready for big games.
As far as the on-court matchup goes, I do like that Philadelphia will be relying on Maxey and McCain against this Houston team. If the Rockets can struggle with anything, it’s quick, speedy guards that can blow by Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green. What you don’t want to rely on against Houston is scoring from the wing. Amen Thompson and Tari Eason will take that away.
However, the spot really is everything here. If the Rockets have tired legs, they won’t be able to take advantage of a mediocre Sixers defense. And Philadelphia should be able to create offense here. Houston doesn’t have a good matchup for Maxey, and the Sixers role players will be letting shots fly with very little hesitation. That can be a very good thing, as we saw in a low-pressure situation with the Bucks last night. Giannis Antetokounmpo was out, so Milwaukee played very freely and everybody was knocking down shots. Role players love when they are given the green light.
Bet: Sixers +5.5 (-110 – 1.5 units) & Sixers ML (+180 – 0.5 units)
New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks – 7:30 pm ET
I’ll be honest, I think I have something of a Yelnats curse when it comes to handicapping Knicks games. Whether it’s backing them or fading them, it never seems to go well. I believe it’s because I stopped rooting for the franchise in 2019, but that’s neither here nor there. I’m going to continue looking at New York’s games, and that continues with a play on the Knicks this evening.
Dallas is 2-1 since Luka Doncic got injured. The team is also 13th in points per 100 possessions (115.3) and 10th in points allowed per 100 possessions (112.8) in that span. It has been a nice little stretch for the Mavericks, who have earned wins over the Nuggets and Hawks. However, Dallas has been getting a lot of offense from unexpected sources, with Naji Marshall being the main one. Marshall has scored at least 20 points in three consecutive games, but I’d be surprised if we see that against New York. The Knicks have had their issues defensively this season, but they still have OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges to deploy as wing defenders. Both guys are capable of handling the Marshall assignment with ease. New York just needs to make sure Kyrie Irving doesn’t go off in this one. Josh Hart will probably be the main defender there, but Dallas is going to try and run actions that get Jalen Brunson on Irving. That won’t go well for the Knicks. However, New York is going to do the same on the other end of the floor, looking for opportunities for Brunson to cook against Irving. And that won’t go well for the Mavericks.
Overall, I just don’t think Dallas has the offensive firepower required to beat New York right now. The Knicks are second in the league in adjusted offensive rating this year (117.9), and they’re probably heading towards first based on the last couple of weeks. Karl-Anthony Towns has been unguardable within this offense, Brunson is still an elite iso player and the rest of the rotation is filled with good shooters and smart off-ball players.
If Towns can avoid picking up cheap fouls — which isn’t a given against a Mavericks center rotation that is as active as any in the league — this should be a relatively straightforward win for the Knicks. New York is 39-23-1 ATS as a road favorite under Tom Thibodeau, and the team is also 13-4-1 ATS off a road blowout win of 20 or more points under him. When this Knicks team gets hot, it stays hot.
Bet: Knicks -3.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 pm ET
The Lakers are falling apart defensively. This team is 27th in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (115.8) on the year, and it’s dead last in points allowed per 100 possessions (126.1) over the last three games. It started with Franz Wagner and a Paolo Banchero-less Magic team torching the Lakers three games ago. Los Angeles then got dissected by a Denver team that is missing some of its usual offensive magic. Then, in last night’s Emirates NBA Cup meeting with Phoenix, the Suns got whatever they wanted against the Lakers. JJ Redick noted after the game that some scheme changes might be necessary, but how fast will Los Angeles be able to figure things out? I don’t think it’ll happen on the second night of a back-to-back, and that’s especially true against a scorching hot opponent.
While Los Angeles is on a three-game losing skid, San Antonio has won four games in a row and six of its last eight. And overall, the Spurs are a very tough matchup for the Lakers. San Antonio is 11th in the NBA in points allowed per 100 possessions (113.0) this season, and the team is only getting better and better on that end of the floor. So, the Spurs are far more likely to come away with key stops throughout this game. But San Antonio is also making significant strides offensively, as the team is 10th in the league in offensive rating (116.2) over the last eight games. That’s not far off from the Lakers’ 116.6 offensive rating in that same span. That said, there isn’t a huge difference between these teams offensively, but there is a massive one defensively. On top of all of that, the Lakers are just 46-54 SU on the road over the last three seasons, and they’re 7-12 SU on the second leg of back-to-backs.
The only reason I’m not dropping the hammer on this game is that Victor Wembanyama could sit. But I’m locking this in at plus-money odds and hoping for the best. Considering how bad Los Angeles has looked lately, it isn’t out of the question that San Antonio can win without Wembanyama. So, there’s hope even if he doesn’t suit up.
Bet: Spurs ML (+130)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors – 10:00 pm ET
The Thunder are still playing without Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso, but I still feel they should be bigger favorites agains the Warriors — even on the road. And it seems like there’s a real chance Stephen Curry misses this game. He’s listed as questionable with knee pain, and I’d be surprised if the team puts him in harm’s way here. But either way, this Oklahoma City team has a small edge in both adjusted offensive and defensive ratings here. And overall, the Thunder are the better coached team, plus the more talented team.
Oklahoma City is also completely unbothered by playing on the road. Dating back to last season, the Thunder are 22-12 SU as road favorites. They also get up for matchups like these, as they’re 18-9 SU when facing teams that outscore opponents by at least 3.0 points per game.
Also, under Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City is 22-5 ATS when coming off a road win by 10 or more points, and the Thunder have won those games by an average of 7.4 points per game. And I’m not even looking to Oklahoma City to cover. I’m simply taking the moneyline. If Curry ends up being ruled out, this number will be closer to -200 by tip-off.
Bet: Thunder ML (-135 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – November 27th
Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 pm ET
Trae Young is questionable for the Hawks tonight, but I’m taking him to knock down at least three 3s. Young hasn’t done this in four games, but it isn’t for a lack of trying. He has attempted 18 triples over his last three games, and he’s going to start knocking down some shots soon. Well, this is a pretty good matchup for him to do that. I know Cleveland is a top-10 team when it comes to adjusted defensive rating (111.4), but the Cavaliers are giving up 14.0 3s per game. Only seven teams in the league are giving up more than that, and teams are also shooting 37.8% from deep against Cleveland. That’s the third-worst mark in the league. It’s also guards that are doing the most damage against the Cavaliers, as Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell are a weak defensive backcourt. That said, if Young does give it a go tonight, he should be able to find some success from beyond the arc.
Bet: Young Over 2.5 Made 3s (-115)
Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic – 7:00 pm ET
I wanted to come in with a big play on Jalen Suggs to go Over his combined points, rebounds and assists number tonight. However, I’m limiting myself to a unit, as I’m a little nervous about Suggs’ hamstring. He played just nine minutes against the Pistons last game. However, he wasn’t listed on the injury report for this one, so that hamstring really shouldn’t be an issue. And if he does flirt with 30 minutes in this game, he should turn in a big performance.
The Bulls matchup is a dream for opposing players, and that’s especially true of opposing guards. Chicago is 28th in the league in adjusted defensive rating (115.9) this year, and the team is also first in the NBA in pace (105.0). The Bulls play very fast and they don’t guard anyone. They are also especially miserable when it comes to defending the backcourt. That said, Suggs should be able to pick up some easy buckets and assists by just playing fast. And there should also be some opportunities for him to knock down some triples, even though Chicago does a decent job of keeping opponents off the 3-point line.
Suggs will also add a little in the rebounding department, as he’s one of the best rebounding guards in basketball. All of that should amount to some nice stat-sheet stuffing the night before we all consume an unhealthy amount of stuffing.
Bet: Suggs Over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
Teasers/Parlays/Late Added Plays
Nothing yet.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 78-71 (+4.67 units)
