The NBA Summer League semifinals are set to begin, but not without controversy. Six teams ended pool play with 4-0 records, but two – Minnesota and Atlanta – were left out due to point differential. Pour one out for Kelley Bydlon and I who had the Timberwolves and Hawks tickets respectively to win the whole thing.
Despite that, we push on. Toronto earned the top seed with a +15.8 point differential. It will face Sacramento – the fourth seed – in the semifinals. Oklahoma City and Charlotte will duke it out for a spot in the final as the second and third seeds.
The Kings are the most intriguing of the four finalists, as their shortest odds before the Summer League began were +8000. The Hornets closed +3000 at FanDuel before the event began and both the Raptors and Thunder were higher on the board at +1400 and +1600 respectively.
NBA Summer League Best Bets
Sacramento Kings vs Toronto Raptors (-3, 185.5)
One of the main reasons the Raptors are here this weekend is A.J. Lawson. The G-League stalwart averaged 18.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists in the first four games of play. Lawson also led Toronto in 3-point shooting (45.5% on 5.5 attempts per game). It seems that three seasons in the G-League has allowed Lawson to thrive in this setting, and that should continue today.
The Raptors’ second-year wing Ja’Kobe Walter has shown out as well. He is the team’s second leading scorer (15.3 points per game), and he’s shown some strong play on defense throughout pool play. In fact, this team overall has played spectacular defense in limiting opponents to just 81.0 points per game.
I’m a big fan of Nique Clifford – the Kings’ leading scorer and first round pick – but don’t like this team overall. Sacramento picked on the dregs of the Summer League to get here. Specifically, Orlando and Phoenix. The Magic finished 0-4 with the worst point differential (-10.0) and the Suns weren’t much better (-5.7). Even more troublesome was Orlando’s ability to push Sacramento like they did in their opening game. The market has this priced about right, but only choice seems to be the favorite.
Pick: Raptors (-3)
Charlotte Hornets vs Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5, 186.5)
There might be some noise around this game bettors will have to clear up before getting involved. Oklahoma City finished pool play undefeated with a win over New Orleans in the finale, but they did that without Nikola Topic or Ajay Mitchell. It was the second leg of a back-to-back so those moves could have just been out of caution. However, both Topic and Mitchell have great value to the Thunder organization. It wouldn’t be a shock to learn they were shut down at some point today.
Charlotte also has quite a few questions when it comes to player availability as well.
Second-year pro Tidjane Salaun sat the finale with Achilles soreness, and Liam McNeely is dealing with the same issue. It seems unlikely the team would risk either’s health – especially Salaun, a lottery pick last season – in a meaningless contest. McNeely is the team’s second leading scorer at the Summer League (18.0 points) and their best shooter (42.9% on 7.0 attempts per game). Salaun is third scoring (13.0) and second in rebounding (5.7). Both would be huge losses if they do not play.
I’ll have a piece of Charlotte here just because of my position on Oklahoma City to win the league. If both Topic and Mitchell play, the Thunder should be able to win and cover this short number, especially with the potential absences on the other side. Having said that, with such a volatile game in terms of player availability it might just be best to sit this game out.
Lean: Thunder (-1.5)
