The Summer League begins on Thursday in Las Vegas. On Tuesday we gave you three teams to back to win the whole thing in Sin City, but how should you evaluate these teams?
Today we have three tips on how to evaluate rosters so you can have success in handicapping the league. There is no perfect formula, but I’ve found success in sticking to these three principles in order to find squads to back when the NBA arrives in the scorching desert.
The Format
Let’s remind you of the format.
Each team will play four “regular season games” over the course of the first week. After those games are played the top four teams will advance to a single-elimination tournament for the right to call themselves Summer League Champion.
With only four games serving as the “regular season” there will be teams that end up tied. The tiebreakers are as follows:
Two Teams Tied – In the case of a tie in preliminary round records involving only two teams, the following criteria, in order, are utilized:
1. Head-to-head matchup: The team that won the game between the two teams in the preliminary round, if applicable, receives the higher seed.
2. Point differential: The team with the greater point differential receives the higher seed.
3. Total Points: The team with the most total points will receive the higher seed
4. Random drawing: If necessary, the higher seed will be determined by a “coin flip”.
More Than Two Teams Tied – In the case of a tie in preliminary round records involving more than two teams, the following criteria, in order, were utilized:
1. Point differential: The team with the greater point differential receives the higher seed.
2. Total Points: The team with the most total points will receive the higher seed
3. Random drawing: The higher seed shall be determined by a “coin flip.”
While most believe these games mean nothing bettors will see teams play for a spot in the playoffs when the time comes in Las Vegas. Point differential is the most obvious tiebreaker that can impact betting contests, so keep an eye on the standings when teams are playing their final game while in contention.
With that mind, let’s talk about the key factors for team success.
Veteran Players
LeBron James could show up to the Thomas & Mack Center this summer, but it will be to sit courtside and watch his son and the other players on the floor. The veterans in this exercise are players entering their second or third year in the league that have logged decent minutes in the NBA. Those players are invaluable.
In the 2022 Summer League the Portland Trail Blazers defeated the New York Knicks in the championship game. Portland was led by Trendon Watford and Keon Johnson. Johnson had played 37 games in his first season and averaged 18.8 minutes. Watford played in 48 contests and averaged 18.1 minutes. They led the Trail Blazers in scoring that summer with a combined 27.8 points per game.
That same season Quentin Grimes was the Knicks’ leading scorer in Las Vegas at 22.6 points per game. He also averaged four assists. That was after a rookie season in which he played 46 games for New York and averaged 17.1 minutes.
Last year, the Memphis Grizzlies made a run to a championship game in Vegas. GG Jackson – after playing in 48 games and averaging 14.6 points per game his rookie season – played in all six games and led the Grizzlies with 22 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Similarly, Scottie Pippen Jr. averaged 21.5 points and 8.7 assists.
The level of play in the NBA regular season is light years ahead of the Summer League. Players who have experienced the rigors of the regular season should thrive in a preseason setting in which teams were constructed days prior.
This summer, there are plenty of players who fit those parameters. The most obvious candidates are Jaylen Wells (Memphis), Tidjane Salaun (Charlotte), Matas Buzelis (Chicago), Ron Holland (Detroit) and Ajay Mitchell (Oklahoma City). There are plenty of other candidates as well, and their presence will be vital to team success.
Blue Chip Prospects
It’s a simplistic way to handicap an event like this, but talent matters. The most talented players – ones like Cooper Flagg – likely won’t have a long run in the Summer League. Flagg will likely play the opening night against Bronny James and the Lakers, but it would be shocking to see him play more than two contests in Sin City.
The best example here is the 2023 runner-up: Houston.
Cam Whitmore carried the Rockets in the Summer League after he was drafted. Whitmore averaged 19.3 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.5 steals on the way toward winning Summer League MVP.
Bennedict Mathurin averaged 19.3 points per game as a rookie in 2022, and in that same season Keegan Murray won MVP with 23.3 points per game.
This is a group that carries the most risk, because the higher the draft pick the more likely it is he plays fewer contests. Having said that, some lottery picks will play big minutes. Especially if they play on a team which has bigger aspirations than just player development.
Jeremiah Fears (New Orleans) could be a good example of that. Fears is a talented guard who averaged 17.1 points, 4.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists in his lone season at Oklahoma. The Pelicans fancy themselves a team which can make a playoff push. That could mean a smaller role for him in the regular season. Las Vegas could be a good opportunity for the team and Fears to get a good look at one another. The same could be said for his fellow rookie Derik Queen.
It’s not a perfect science. There is a lot of projecting and guessing when it comes to how teams will use their players, but the rookies will always play a big role in a Summer League squad making a run.
Journeymen & Veteran College Players
This is the least important of the factors, but having guys who are older on the roster does help. Players who have physically matured can have an upper-hand on some of the younger rookies that were late selections and are considered developmental. That includes seniors who are finally making the transition to the pros.
My favorite example is Summer League stalwart Javon Freeman-Liberty.
Freeman-Liberty came out in the 2022 draft as a senior. He participated in his second Summer League with Chicago in 2023 and averaged 21.2 points per game. Last season, he played for Toronto and averaged 14.3 points in four games. This season, he is back with Chicago.
Freeman-Liberty might not be as effective this season, but he is exactly what bettors should be looking for when evaluating these rosters. Some good examples this summer include Nelly Junior-Joseph (New Mexico), Ryan Kalkbrenner (Charlotte) and LJ Cryer (Golden State). Cryer especially could be effective as a ball-handler in a competition in which teams are not as cohesive.
