The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of April 30, 2025 and May 1, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 85-72-3 (54.1%). Here are today’s results: 

– HOUSTON (-4 vs. GSW)
Two DK Betting Splits systems, multiple playoff trends/systems, and Makinen effective strength ratings projection all favor HOU and scheduling situation fades GSW 

– MIN-LAL UNDER 209
Multiple playoff trends/systems, scheduling situation, and recent head-to-head trend all favor Under

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Road teams looking to close out a series in Game Six of the first round are 19-8 SU and ATS (70.4%) in their last 27 tries. Outright winners are 27-0 ATS in those games.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (+2 at DET), DENVER (+6.5 at LAC) 

* Under the total is 12-4-1 in the last 17 of Clippers-Nuggets head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-LAC (o/u at 211) 

* #2 seeds have also bounced back quickly from losses, 23-4 SU and 21-6 ATS (77.8%) in their last 27.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-4 vs. GSW) 

* Under the total is on a 91-44-1 (67.4%) in the last 136 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-HOU (o/u at 204), NYK-DET (o/u at 212.5), DEN-LAC (o/u at 211) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, DETROIT 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, LA LAKERS, DETROIT, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): GOLDEN STATE ML, LA LAKERS ML, DETROIT ML, DENVER ML 

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and a ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-DET, DEN-LAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – GSW-HOU, MIN-LAL
UNDER – NYK-DET, DEN-LAC

First Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range

• First round home favorites of 4 points or less have proven to be a bad investment lately, as since 2014, they are just 48-39 SU and 37-49-1 ATS (43%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-4 vs. GSW), DETROIT (-2 vs. NYK) 

• The last three NBA first round playoffs saw 70 Unders, 58 Overs, 1 Push– (55%). This year, they are 19-16-1 to the Under (54.3%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER IN ALL FOUR GAMES 

• With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 82-60-5 (57.7%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 76-66-2 (53.5%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER IN ALL FOUR GAMES

Last Game Trends

• Blowout losses carry over – There is a bit of a misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 12 points or more are just 67-126 SU and 81-110-2 ATS (42.4%) in the next contest since 2013. This year, they are 4-8 SU and 8-4 ATS.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-6.5 vs. DEN)

• Heartbreaking losses have a galvanizing effect – Teams that lose close games, or those decided by 3 points or less, in the first round of the NBA playoffs have bounced back with a 42-19 SU and 38-21-2 ATS (64.4%) mark in the next game since 2014. In the line range of +5 to -5, these teams are on a 25-9 SU and 22-10-2 ATS (68.8%) surge!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-4 vs. GSW), LA LAKERS (-5.5 vs MIN), NEW YORK (+2 at DET) 

• Beware of teams that shoot the 3pt shot well in one game but still lose. Those that shot 40.0% or better on 3-point shots but still lost have gone just 20-37-1 ATS (35.1%) in the next contest since 2016 in the first round.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-4 vs. GSW)

First Round Trends by Game Number

• Game Fives have belonged to the home teams over the last four non-neutral court playoff seasons. However, they have been close shaves, as these teams are 38-12 SU (just 24-26 ATS – 48%) since 2017.
System Matches (PLAY on ML): HOUSTON, LA LAKERS 

• Non-neutral Game Fives have been defensive focused of late, going 25-19 Under the total (56.8%) since 2018, with road teams putting up just 104.7 PPG.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-HOU (o/u at 204), MIN-LAL (o/u at 209) 

• Outright winners have been incredibly proficient against the point spread in Game Sixes, going 30-2 ATS (93.8%) since 2015. 

• Game Sixes have usually been road domination – Road teams in NBA first round Game Sixes are 27-16 SU and 30-13 ATS (69.8%) in the last 12 seasons – However, they were just 1-3 SU and ATS last year. Defense is usually the key, as Under the total in 26-17 (60.5%) in those contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (+2 at DET), DENVER (+6.5 at LAC)
PLAY UNDER in both games as well

• Road teams looking to close out a series in Game Six of the first round are 19-8 SU and ATS (70.4%) in their last 27 tries. Outright winners are 27-0 ATS in those games.
System Match (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (+2 at DET), DENVER (+6.5 at LAC)

Trends by Seed Number

• #2 seeds have been crazy good as bigger chalk – #2 seeded teams are on a strong run of 73-17 SU and 56-34 ATS (62.2%) when favored by 4.5 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (*if they fall into this line range vs GSW, -4 currently) 

• #2 seeds have also bounced back quickly from losses, 23-4 SU and 21-6 ATS (77.8%) in their last 27.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-4 vs. GSW) 

• #3 seeds bounce back on the road after losses – Third-seeded teams are on a run of 12-7 SU and 14-5 ATS (73.7%) on the road after losing the prior game in a first round series.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+2 at DET) 

Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination

• Small favorites/underdogs closing out series have also been solid of late – teams attempting to close out a series in a non-Game Seven scenario and playing as underdogs or favorites of 2 points or less are on a 13-7 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%) run in their last 20 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE (+4 at HOU), MINNESOTA (+5.5 at LAL), NEW YORK (+2 at DET), DENVER (+6.5 at LAC) 

• Teams getting a second (or third) closeout opportunity after losing the prior chance are 26-10 SU but 14-20-2 ATS (41.2%) in their last 36 tries.
System Match (FADE ATS): NEW YORK (+2 at DET)

First Round Game Scoring Trends

• Success in first round games comes with topping the 117-point mark, as teams that have scored 118 points or more are on a 126-29 SU and 124-31 ATS (80%) run over the last six postseasons.

• In terms of points allowed, 99 points is the key benchmark. Teams that have allowed 98 points or fewer in the last six first round playoff seasons are 111-20 SU and 108-21-2 ATS (83.7%).

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long! 

* Home teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 48-22 SU and 44-23-3 ATS (65.7%) hosting teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-5.5 vs. MIN)

* Under the total was 88-68-1 (56.4%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.

* Under the total was 85-58 (59.4%) since the start of last season when both teams in an NBA matchup were in the same 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario…two rested teams.

* Under the total was 126-81 (60.9%) since the start of last season when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game, in other words two pretty rested teams.
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-LAL (o/u at 209) 

* Under the total is on a 91-44-1 (67.4%) in last 136 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-HOU (o/u at 204), NYK-DET (o/u at 212.5), DEN-LAC (o/u at 211) 

* GOLDEN STATE is on an extended slide of 51-60 SU and 48-63 ATS when playing on the road on One Day Rest
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+3.5 at HOU)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total in the next game, 312-266 (54%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-DET (o/u at 212.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 294-313 SU and 270-329-8 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+6.5 at LAC) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA +5.5 (+2.6)
2. NEW YORK +2 (+2.5)
3. GOLDEN STATE +4 (+1.3) 

Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA +5.5 (+4.0)
2. DENVER +6.5 (+1.9)
3. NEW YORK +2 (+0.8)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: HOUSTON -4 (+3.0) 

Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DEN-LAC OVER 211 (+1.7)
2. MIN-LAL OVER 209 (+1.3)
3. GSW-HOU OVER 204 (+0.9) 

Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA +5.5 (+2.9)
2. NEW YORK +2 (+2.6)
3. DENVER +6.5 (+1.4) 

Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-HOU OVER 204 (+4.3)
2. MIN-LAL OVER 209 (+1.6)
3. NYK-DET OVER 212.5 (+0.5) 

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DEN-LAC UNDER 211 (-0.2) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for the games:

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

(509) GOLDEN STATE at (510) HOUSTON
* GOLDEN STATE is 10-2 SU and ATS in the last 12 visits to HOU
Trend Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE 

(513) MINNESOTA at (514) LA LAKERS
* Home teams are 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight head-to-head matchups between MIN and LAL
Trend Match: PLAY LA LAKERS

* Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the MIN-LAL head-to-head series in Los Angeles
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

Thursday, May 1, 2025

(519) NEW YORK at (520) DETROIT
* Favorites are 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the NYK-DET head-to-head series in Detroit
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT 

(521) DENVER at (522) LA CLIPPERS
* Under the total is 12-4-1 in the last 17 of the LAC-DEN head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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