The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, April 4, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AI’s Takes of the Day

Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 70-57-2 (55.1%). Here are today’s results: 

– POR-CHI OVER 234.5
Scheduling trend, Makinen bettors ratings projection, and recent head-to-head trend all favor Over 

– CLEVELAND (-13 at SAS)
Two DK Betting Splits systems and recent head-to-head trend favor CLE

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 62-84-1 ATS (42.5%) in the next game, including 28-41 ATS (40.6%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 at HOU)

* UNDERDOGS are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 of the Nuggets-Warriors head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+1 at GSW) 

* UTAH is 14-25 SU BUT 29-10 ATS in its last 39 3rd Straight Road games
Trend Match (PLAY ATS): UTAH (+16 at IND)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
–  Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, the handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, DETROIT, OKLAHOMA CITY, CLEVELAND, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, BOSTON, CLEVELAND, CHICAGO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, DENVER, LA LAKERS, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, a ROI of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SACRAMENTO ML, DETROIT ML, CLEVELAND ML 

These last four systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-TOR, DAL-LAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DET-TOR
UNDER – UTA-IND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – SAC-CHA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-LAC

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 157-102 SU but 113-143-3 ATS (44.1%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 62-43 SU but 46-59 ATS (43.8%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
* Home teams playing on 2 Days Rest are 84-46 SU but 59-70-1 ATS (45.7%) hosting teams playing a 4th Straight Road game over the last four seasons.
* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 42-24 SU but 28-37-1 ATS (43.1%) hosting teams playing on a 4th Road in 6 Days game over the last four seasons.
4/4: FADE CHICAGO vs. Portland
Systems Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-6 vs. POR)

* Over the total was 38-23 (62.3%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on 2 Days Rest and the road team was playing a 3rdRoadin4Days game.
4/4: Over the total in CHICAGO-PORTLAND
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-CHI (o/u at 234.5) 

* Home teams playing a head-to-head b2b game were 48-54 SU but 54-46-2 ATS (54%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over last two seasons.
4/4: TORONTO vs. Detroit
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+11 vs. DET) 

* Over the total was 101-71 (58.7%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a head-to-head b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
4/4: Over the total in TORONTO-DETROIT
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-TOR (o/u at 227) 

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 34-41 SU and 29-44-2 ATS (39.7%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
4/4: Fade GOLDEN STATE vs. Denver
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-1 vs. DEN)

* Over the total is 45-30 (60%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
4/4: Over the total in GOLDEN STATE-DENVER
System Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-GSW (o/u at 235.5) 

* CHARLOTTE is 35-90 SU and 49-72-2 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
4/4: FADE CHARLOTTE vs. Sacramento
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+11 vs. SAC)

* UTAH is 14-25 SU but 29-10 ATS in its last 39 3rd Straight Road games
4/4: UTAH at Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY ATS): UTAH (+16 at IND) 

* UTAH is on a 49-27 Over the total run when playing on the road with One Day Rest
4/4: Over the total in UTAH-INDIANA
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-IND (o/u at 238.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 260-47 SU but just 144-157-6 ATS (47.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): INDIANA (-16 vs. UTA), SACRAMENTO (-11 at CHA), BOSTON (-14 vs. PHX), CLEVELAND (-13 at SAS) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 109-88 (55.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 220-172 (56.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 278-214 (56.5%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): UTA-IND (o/u at 238.5), SAC-CHA (o/u at 216.5), PHX-BOS (o/u at 226), DET-IND (o/u at 227), CLE-SAS (o/u at 241), NOP-LAL (o/u at 220.5), DAL-LAC (o/u at 226)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 248-133 SU but 176-197-8 ATS (47.2%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-35-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-6 vs. POR) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 298-230 SU but 237-276-15 ATS (46.2%) over the last 6 seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 42-67-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+6.5 vs. OKC)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 179-150 SU and 184-136-9 ATS (57.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+11 vs. DET) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 195-76 SU and 143-125-3 ATS (53.4%) over the last 4 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-6 vs. POR)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 74-18 SU and 52-37-3 ATS (58.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (*if they fall into this line range at HOU, -6.5 currently) 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on an 82-87 SU but 97-70-3 ATS (58.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+14 at BOS) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 253-304-3 ATS (45.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-134 SU and 70-89-5 ATS (44%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): UTAH (+16 at IND), OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 at HOU) 

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 62-84-1 ATS (42.5%) in the next game, including 28-41 ATS (40.6%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 at HOU)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHARLOTTE +11 (+1.0)
2. PHOENIX +14 (+0.4)
3. UTAH +16 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -1 (+3.3)
2. CHICAGO -6 (+2.2)
3. LA CLIPPERS -10 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +10 (+5.1)
2. NEW ORLEANS +14 (+2.8)
3. CHARLOTTE +11 (+2.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO -6 (+4.7)
2. BOSTON -14 (+0.5)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -6.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DEN-GSW OVER 235.5 (+0.6)
2. PHX-BOS OVER 226 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOP-LAL UNDER 220.5 (-2.9)
2. DET-TOR UNDER 227 (-1.6)
3. OKC-HOU UNDER 228 (-1.3) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHOENIX +14 (+2.8)
2. UTAH +16 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE -1 (+4.0)
2. DETROIT -11 (+3.0)
3. LA LAKERS -14 (+2.7) 

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-CHI OVER 234.5 (+3.2)
2. SAC-CHA OVER 216.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHX-BOS UNDER 226 (-4.1)
2. NOP-LAL UNDER 220.5 (-3.2)
2. OKC-HOU UNDER 228 (-2.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(565) PHOENIX at (566) BOSTON
* BOSTON is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six games versus PHX
Trend Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS 

(567) DETROIT at (568) TORONTO
* DETROIT is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 games versus TOR
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS 

(569) OKLAHOMA CITY at (570) HOUSTON
* HOUSTON is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven games hosting OKC
Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS 

(571) CLEVELAND at (572) SAN ANTONIO
* Road teams are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 of the CLE-SAS head-to-head nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
* Over the total is 8-2-1 in the last 11 of head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(573) PORTLAND at (574) CHICAGO
* Over the total is 6-1-1 in the last eight of the POR-CHI head-to-head series at Chicago
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(575) DENVER at (576) GOLDEN STATE
* Underdogs are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 of DEN-GSW head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER ATS 

(577) NEW ORLEANS at (578) LA LAKERS
* LA LAKERS are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine head-to-head games versus NOP
Trend Match: PLAY LA LAKERS(579) DALLAS at (580) LA CLIPPERS
* Favorites are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the DAL-LAC head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

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