The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, December 6, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board. 

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

*Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in rare role of playing as road favorites, going 33-9 SU and 31-9-2 ATS (77.5%) in their last 42 tries.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-3.5 at CHI)

*In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 97-64 SU and 96-62-3 ATS (60.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+2.5 at POR)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 34-36 SU and 23-46-1 ATS skid in the last 70 when playing on standard One Day Rest
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+8 at BOS) 

* PHILADELPHIA is on a 13-4 ATS run against Orlando since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+3.5 vs. ORL) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, SACRAMENTO, INDIANA, MINNESOTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, SACRAMENTO, MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, SACRAMENTO, MINNESOTA

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too: 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – BOSTON ML, ATLANTA ML, CHICAGO ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO ML, UTAH ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on ROAD UNDERDOGS for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and a ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA ML, UTAH ML 

These last three systems involve totals. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-GSW 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-ATL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – ORL-PHI
UNDER – MIN-GSW

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 16-29 SU and 15-29-1 ATS (34.1%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
12/6: Fade CHICAGO vs. Indiana
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3.5 vs. IND)

* Over the total was 84-71 (54.2%) over the L3 seasons when the road team was on a A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4thin6Days game.
12/6: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-SAN ANTONIO
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-SAS (o/u at 228)

* Over the total was 37-28 (56.9%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
12/6: Over the total in SAN ANTONIO-SACRAMENTO
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-SAS (o/u at 228)

* Over the total is 29-16 (64.4%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
12/6: OVER the total in CHICAGO-INDIANA
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-CHI (o/u at 248)

* INDIANA is 14-32 SU and 14-31-1 ATS in its last 46 3rd Straight Road games
12/6: Fade INDIANA at Chicago
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-3.5 at CHI)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 34-36 SU and 23-46-1 ATS skid in the last 70 when playing on standard One Day Rest
12/6: Fade MILWAUKEE at Boston
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+8 at BOS)

* ORLANDO is on a 16-17 SU and 22-11 ATS run when playing a 3rd Straight Road game
12/6: ORLANDO at Philadelphia
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-3.5 at PHI) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 97-64 SU and 96-62-3 ATS (60.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+2.5 at POR)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted. 

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 135-51 SU and 112-72-2 ATS (60.9%) in their last 186 tries.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-3.5 at CHI)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 273-231 (54.2%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-BOS (o/u at 227.5), SAC-SAS (o/u at 228)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 265-251 SU and 231-272-11 ATS (45.9%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-8 vs. MIL) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 126-94 SU and 123-93-4 ATS (56.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+1 at GSW)

Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 164-60 SU and 124-97-3 ATS (56.1%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-8 vs MIL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 33-9 SU and 31-9-2 ATS (77.5%) in their last 42 tries.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-3.5 at CHI)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.1% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (172-192 ATS, 47.3%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (231-227 ATS, 50.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE ALL): INDIANA (-3.5 at CHI), UTAH (+2.5 at POR) 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +6 (+2.7)
2. GOLDEN STATE +1 (+2.6)
3. CHICAGO +3.5 (+1.9) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND -2.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +1 (+5.6)
2. SAN ANTONIO +6 (+4.8)
3. CHICAGO +3.5 (+3.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORLANDO -3.5 (+1.8)
2. PORTLAND -2.5 (+1.5)
3. BOSTON -8 (+1.1) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
MIL-BOS OVER 227 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-CHI UNDER 248.5 (-5.6)
2. MIN-GSW UNDER 218 (-2.2)
3. ORL-PHI UNDER 207 (-1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +1 (+3.8)
2. PHILADELPHIA +3.5 (+3.3)
3. LA LAKERS +5.5 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PORTLAND -2.5 (+1.0)
2. INDIANA -3.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ORL-PHI OVER 207 (+3.9)
2. MIN-GSW OVER 218 (+3.7)
3. LAL-ATL OVER 231.5 (+3.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. IND-CHI UNDER 248.5 (-4.2)
2. UTA-POR UNDER 226.5 (-0.8)
3. SAC-SAS UNDER 228 (-0.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(551) ORLANDO at (552) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is on a 13-4 ATS run against Orlando since 2020
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS 

(553) MILWAUKEE at (554) BOSTON
* Under the total is 5-1 in the MIL-BOS series since the start of last season
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(555) LA LAKERS at (556) ATLANTA
* Over the total is 6-0 in all six LAL-ATL meetings since 2022
System Match: PLAY OVER the total 

(557) SACRAMENTO at (558) SAN ANTONIO
* Road teams are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between SAC and SAS
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS 

(559) INDIANA at (560) CHICAGO
* UNDER the total is 5-1 in the last six of the IND-CHI rivalry at Chicago
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

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